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I've not noticed any change - I got three ships out of the free mega containers I've opened so far.
In previous years the drop rates were very accurate for me. On average one ship for every 7-8 containers or so. So typically 3 for every 25 mega containers.
Super containers got nerfed a year or two back because of how easy they were to get, although I don't recall ships' drop rates being as hard hit as doubs. Either way, 110 modern super containers is like ~55 from back in the day.
And, of course, if you've got all the ships in the supercontainer drop list, you won't be getting any new ones.
I'm aware they are published but it says guarantee a drop in ... containers, which means you can have more. It doesn't mean you have to open 10 containers to get 1 10% drop you can get 2-3 drops in 10.
I don't have all ships in super containers (I don't have many of them) but you know, having 0 ships from drops for so long and waiting for this even for a year and all you get 2 ships... That is really messed up situation personally. I opened more than 43 santa containers (18 mega 25+ ordinary and last try I'm gonna be opening 30+ as well but this event was nothing like it should be... 0 Prem days, so little dubs, 2 ships out of 43+...) and 2 ships is really low... And black friday was disappointing as well, and 110 sup containers were also you know...
I wanted WOWs' developers and editors to know, I've been seeing its adds everywhere and if you want people to join you should offer them something. This is just disappointing.
The crates have the drop-protection to guarantee that even if you get an especially bad cold streak, you'll still get a ship at the fixed amount.
The drop-protection *resets if you get a ship* - it's a minimum, not a bonus.
Sure, if people don't have a lot of the ships in the drop list; or what one specific ship that's currently for sale.
If players do have a lot of ships in the drop list, there's break-even points where it's statistically more cost effective to get random ships via the lootboxes; plus you get a load of bonus stuff as boobie prizes; plus there's the ultra-rares in the santa crates which can't be gotten any other way.
I will do 40 closer to xmas.
Average is 2-3 ships per 20x mega; and if you're getting the 2, it's usually because you've got one of the other expensive rewards like premium time or doubs in place of the third ship.
Naturally people can have bad luck streaks - that's why there's 15-crate drop protection as a mechanic; just like people can have good luck streaks.
As I said in the other thread - I got 4 premiums out of my free mega-crates; and I got 2+ duplicate compensation out of a subsequent 20x mega bundle. Which is pretty much in line with what you'd expect from the published probabilities.
If you've cleared out the low-value trash from the drop list, you should get 4-7 decent premium ships from 40x megas with a ton of bonus boobie prize economic fillers, and the outside chance of a super-rare.
I am worried my bad luck from Black Friday will carry over, so far the crates I've opened haven't been all that great outside of one giving me 30 days premium time and another giving some dubs. But I haven't cashed in for any Megas yet, so hopefully I get lucky, Christmas crates are usually really good for me.
Hope you luck can rub off on me then lol.
That is all I am missing too, I am willing to bet our lists would be similar if not the same.