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Actually, Arena of Determination is a worse farm for a specific boss than citadel of Eternity
Simply because in Arena of Determination, you will have a 50-50 on the right race to be picked for the boss (you can, for example, get 2 times skaven and therefore two rat ogres)
So you have to first meet a 50% chance for the right race (skaven or chaos), and then another 50% chance for the right boss(troll or spawn), which will be a whole 25% chance to happen (twice but still)
However, in Citadel of Eternity, you only need to win a single 50% chance (troll or spawn) since the game forces one boss of each race (so 1 skaven and 1 chaos boss for skaven/chaos)
Dont ask why they are different, I have no clue, they just are different
On paper, this might sound like both are 50% chance, but due to how chance works, the 2x25% is actually a 43.75% chance of at least one prefered spawn to be happening (aka 6.25% less likely)
Not much but yknow, adds up with the attempts
Though the rest in your post applies to Citadel of Eternity, look at the last map when booting up the run, if it says "skaven/chaos" then go do that run, if it says "skaven/beastmen" quit and relaunch the run (there is no "chaos/beastmen" in chaos wastes, idk why, campaign maps have sections where no skaven spawn and still get specials)
And the +monster = chest has a boss is also true, I dont know if it also is fully determined by the race, but I'd assume so as well (so only bother with "skaven/chaos" maps that got +monster)
Recruit cant have a grudgemarked monster outside the last level (so dont bother with +monster there)
Veteran can have one once you enter 4th level (aka level before the last level)
Champion once you enter the 3rd level
Legend once you enter the 2nd level
And Cataclysm can have it from the 1st level already
Also, Grimnirs Blessing (the one that forces a monster spawn but get extra HP when you slay it), the one Tzeentch Curse that spawns eggs so monsters spawn and any non-chest spawning monster can never be grudgemarked. Even on Cataclysm
Though I personally have never played with Twitch so cant confirm that they cant spawn as grudgemarked, though from the other sources that cant spawn them, its probably safe to assume they cant there either
(If someone who plays twitch mode knows this better, feel free to correct me)