Dice RNG needs a new algorithm

[Teege]

Ya the dice RNG is VERY BAD and ruins the game. 3 or 4 numbers just roll over and over and over in each game, thus anyone on whatever hot numbers happen to be for that game win in a landslide mean while no one else gets any cards. I just had 27!!!!!!!!!! 7's in one game mean while 5 6 and 8 9 rolled under 7 times each PLEASE CHANGE THIS AND FIX THE GAME!

[N o i r]

Yes, sometimes RNG sucks. But overall it makes the game unpredictable, and to some this means more interesting.

[ShadowDark3]

It's not uncommon for games with chance-based mechanics (critical hits are the most common) to include an algorithm to sway the odds of individual actions in order to attain the target probability.

Using critical hits as an example, with the assumption you have a critical hit chance of 10% in a game like League of Legends (to use a popular example which I know does this).

If you attack three times, and each attack is a critical hit, your next attack (which SHOULD have a 10% chance to crit) will actually have a significantly lower chance than 10%. As will your next 26 attacks until you get back to having an average crit rate of 10%. The actual penalty to crit chance gets smaller the closer you are to that 10% average. It also works in reverse—if you are landing fewer than 10% crits on average, your chance to land a critical strike on each attack will increase to try and bring you into equilibrium.

These algorithms are almost always invisible in games, but exist to give confidence to the player that if they have X% chance of something happening, it actually happens X% of the time. Which is fine for something like critical chance in a competitive online game or a single player RPG. But in Catan or other die-based board games that are designed around random dice rolls, it doesn't make sense to try and force the odds to match standard distribution.

For those who want to force a normal distribution of rolls, the dice deck exists as an option already.

The reason you believe that the rolls in Catan are not random is the same reason iPod users in 2005 thought the shuffle function was broken (and more recently why Spotify created an algorithm for it's shuffle function that makes it less random in order to appear more random). Basically, humans are very VERY bad at perceiving things that are random or even close to random. We are hard-wired to find patterns in the world. There are numerous studies on this, but if you're interested in learning more look up the "Hot Hand Fallacy."

[fearenough]

ShadowDark3님이 먼저 게시:

It's not uncommon for games with chance-based mechanics (critical hits are the most common) to include an algorithm to sway the odds of individual actions in order to attain the target probability.

Using critical hits as an example, with the assumption you have a critical hit chance of 10% in a game like League of Legends (to use a popular example which I know does this).

If you attack three times, and each attack is a critical hit, your next attack (which SHOULD have a 10% chance to crit) will actually have a significantly lower chance than 10%. As will your next 26 attacks until you get back to having an average crit rate of 10%. The actual penalty to crit chance gets smaller the closer you are to that 10% average. It also works in reverse—if you are landing fewer than 10% crits on average, your chance to land a critical strike on each attack will increase to try and bring you into equilibrium.

These algorithms are almost always invisible in games, but exist to give confidence to the player that if they have X% chance of something happening, it actually happens X% of the time. Which is fine for something like critical chance in a competitive online game or a single player RPG. But in Catan or other die-based board games that are designed around random dice rolls, it doesn't make sense to try and force the odds to match standard distribution.

For those who want to force a normal distribution of rolls, the dice deck exists as an option already.

The reason you believe that the rolls in Catan are not random is the same reason iPod users in 2005 thought the shuffle function was broken (and more recently why Spotify created an algorithm for it's shuffle function that makes it less random in order to appear more random). Basically, humans are very VERY bad at perceiving things that are random or even close to random. We are hard-wired to find patterns in the world. There are numerous studies on this, but if you're interested in learning more look up the "Hot Hand Fallacy."

but dev has stated they use a modified pseudorandom rng not a true random rng A pseudorandom number generator (PRNG), also known as a deterministic random bit generator (DRBG),[1] is an algorithm for generating a sequence of numbers whose properties approximate the properties of sequences of random numbers. I got told was modified to make it more fair for all players a week after released on steam

[N o i r]

fearenough님이 먼저 게시:

but dev has stated they use a modified pseudorandom rng not a true random rng A pseudorandom number generator (PRNG), also known as a deterministic random bit generator (DRBG),[1] is an algorithm for generating a sequence of numbers whose properties approximate the properties of sequences of random numbers.

They did not say that. No computer algorithm is truly random, but some are good enough that they are for all extents and purposes completely indistinguishable from true random. We do not know with certainty whether or not the Catan one is one of those.

fearenough님이 먼저 게시:

I got told was modified to make it more fair for all players a week after released on steam

Source?

[fearenough]

here goes what a dev with nothing to hide would reply like the risk devs:Originally posted by Zoundz:
Is there and advantage to having the special dice? Im noticing Im getting some consistent bad beats...I would like to buy the upgraded dice...where can I find more info?

I can confirm to you that the dice skins have no impact on gameplay and are purely for aesthetic/bragging rights.

We have uploaded our dice code onto github if you'd like to do a thorough inspection

https://github.com/smgstudio/risk-dice