Rigged Dice Distribution - An hypothesis.

[Alex]

Hello everyone. I am a lover of Catan, played the game since I was 14 years old, in the Netherlands with my family. I know that on Catan Universe I am just one of the many who have gotten incredibly frustrated by the dice distribution that appears to be so much against reality.

I have played/observed many games, chatted with many players and analyzed many distribution charts. In the end, I formulated a theory as of why is the dice distribution so seemingly unrealistic.

Let me start by quoting a developer:

Messaggio originale di Catan Universe CM:

The dice RNG does what it is supposed to do. It produces random numbers. We get feedback about changing RNG results (it’s getting worse or better) after every Update but the RNG hasn´t been touched in a veeeery long time.
This shows us, most Catanians do perceive the RNG to be changing when it fact it doesn´t. It has been the same and it works perfectly fine.
For a regular game with -let’s say 50 rolls - chances are quiet high to not even get close to a standard distribution. Or let’s put it in other words… the results might be all over the place. Seemingly favouring certain numbers over others despite them being less probable to get rolled. Now why is that the case? It´s because we do not use loaded dice.
We encourage everyone to do a small experiment at home. Just write down every roll for every player when playing with your friends or family at home sitting around the table. It’s very likely that someone gets lucky during the game and someone will have bad luck. Now would you think the person who is lucky used loaded dice? Or rigged the dice?
Also feel free to use https://www.random.org/dice/?num=2 and write down the 50 dice results. You might be get quite random results ;)

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This folk is a half-lie or a half-baked truth. Or rather, it's misleading information.
Anyone who knows a little about software development and computers in general, should know as a fact that perfect randomness is simply not achievable.
(here an interesting article about it
Stack Overflow [softwareengineering.stackexchange.com] ).
Mr. Developer's comment refers to one of those algorithms that emulate randomness, but it does not address how Catan Universe probably does not use one of those, or uses an adjusted algorithm.

So that was point 1: No true realistic random number generator exists.

And here's point 2: How did they adjust the algorithm?

Please understand that this is speculation, however, I tried to find a logical explanation as to why Catan Universe doesn't make an extra effort to address the dice problem.

The idea is: Catan Universe is a business. Much like any major social network, their business model expects to create a big community of users, who will then purchase items in-app over time, and provide a cash flow, which will then generate revenue.
Hear me out here, it's a business with the sole purpose of making money: they have not developed Catan because they are good samaritans and you like to play Catan with your friends so much.

Once you understand this, you will see how, from a business perspective, it would very natural and pertinent to the stable business plan, the goal of maximizing the total user count: a small community would simply be not profitable.

So how do you maximize the community? By making sure that everyone wins!
Here it's where it becomes delicate.

I have the dreadful suspect that there is some kind of hidden ranking list that records losses vs wins on any given player. For example. If the player loses 4 games and plays a firth game, the algorithm will make sure to favor him in that game, to not make him tired, to not make him wanna give up on the platform, to keep the adrenaline going.

That is how Catan Universe makes sure that nobody leaves (deletes their account)
That is how Catan Universe makes sure that even the worst players win now and then. That is how Catan Universe maintains the platform addictive, just like the slot machines in a casino: they always make you win a little to keep you going.
That is how Catan Universe meet its business requirement to keep a huge community of players.

But if all of this is true, how is a player advantaged vs others in a game? Many variables come into play. Please note that these variables only affect the optimal scenario in which other players don't interfere with the preset handicaps. NOTE: These observations apply only to the base game, although some of them might be present also in the expansions.

1 - Starting order: you will notice how sometimes the board is arranged horribly in favor of the first player, who in this case will be the advantaged player (AP).
2 - Dice distribution: what everyone is complaining about. The dice will favor the AP only.
2.1 - The AP cannot be kept blocked by the robber. AP will often roll 7 to unblock themselves.
2.2 - Game 90% stars with a 7 in the first round. Usually by the AP, easy way to block others and get a head start.
2.3 - 7 Often strikes players with more than 7 cards that are not the AP.
2.4 - 7 Often gets rolled in succession until the robber gets parked on a spot that will effectively block the players who are not the AP.
2.5 - 7 Often gets rolled after a knight card is played wasting the efforts of buying and using the dev card. This happens to everybody but the AP. (BTW the AP doesn't need a knight card: see point 2.1)
2.4 - Dices often roll numbers on which AP is settled. Often many times in a row, creating an irrecoverable gap.
3 - AI: bots act completely irrationally.
3.1 - on a 7 bots almost never rob the AP. It can happen that the bot robs the player who is winning, but that's just because the current leader happens to play better than the AP.
3.2 - bots tend to avoid trading with players who are not supposed to win.
3.3 - bots trade until the is at 2 points from the win (3 if I am not wrong in C&K) when it's already too late.
3.4 - bots trade easily more than 1-1.
4 - Development cards: development cards tend to advantage the players. You might have noticed more often than not, how you will pull a card that you don't need at all for your tactics.
4.1 - You will invest in dev cards but the very first card you pull from the deck is a victory point card (pulling a victory point card as the very first card is a complete disaster, some of you might understand). The probability of pulling a VP card as the very first card is 1/5. But the probability of that happening often is way lower than that... yet you are left with what you experience.)
4.2 - You will pull a road builder in a game on which it's completely useless.
5 - New player account: if the player is recently signed-up there's a good chance he will win in the first 5 games.


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Conclusion

These were my observations and speculations as on how Catan Universe keeps it's community and sustains its business model by predetermining an advantaged player for any one game. I have observed several methods, one of which is by messing with the RNG.

If you find this helpful please contribute by replying with what you have experienced. Also, if you think that some of my analyses were wrong please let me know.

[PikeStance]

They recently did an update and you would think they would had changed it but it is still blatantly obvious. If you get a game where 7 is rolled a lot your chances of winning is substantially higher.

On thing I noticed is if you are on a '6." The dice won't roll on that number. They roll a "7" move the robber there and suddenly, it is raining "6." The robber gets moved and no more "6" is roll until the robber is moved there again.

Another thing I noticed is metagaming by the AI. They will always trade with each other even though it is not to their advantage. This is true even if one AI is ahead. They will literally trade the one resource they need to win the game.

[N o i r]

Messaggio originale di colvinapple:

I've recently felt that the dice rolls sometimes favor the AI.
[...]
I still feel that the AI is sometimes favored.
[...]
I seem to do better in when playing this way.
[...]
I noticed on ONE game

More conjectures based on subjective feelings and statistically irrelevant data.

[N o i r]

Messaggio originale di PikeStance:

...but it is still blatantly obvious. If you get a game where 7 is rolled a lot your chances of winning is substantially higher.

No, it is not.

Messaggio originale di PikeStance:

On thing I noticed is if you are on a '6." The dice won't roll on that number. They roll a "7" move the robber there and suddenly, it is raining "6." The robber gets moved and no more "6" is roll until the robber is moved there again.

What are you even talking about?!

[PikeStance]

Messaggio originale di N o i r:

Messaggio originale di PikeStance:

...but it is still blatantly obvious. If you get a game where 7 is rolled a lot your chances of winning is substantially higher.

No, it is not.

It is for me. That "7" pops up a lot and I win 90% of the time. The higher the proportion of rolls that are "7" the larger my margin of victory.

Messaggio originale di N o i r:

Messaggio originale di PikeStance:

On thing I noticed is if you are on a '6." The dice won't roll on that number. They roll a "7" move the robber there and suddenly, it is raining "6." The robber gets moved and no more "6" is roll until the robber is moved there again.

What are you even talking about?!

Clue: Look at the title of the thread.

[N o i r]

Messaggio originale di PikeStance:

It is for me. That "7" pops up a lot and I win 90% of the time. The higher the proportion of rolls that are "7" the larger my margin of victory.

"For me" is not how statistics work. Just because you've been lucky does not prove that the system is rigged - you need to come up with a statistically significant sample, and show that the chances of the number distributions you are getting are unrealistically far from the expected average. You have done nothing of the sort.

Messaggio originale di PikeStance:

Clue: Look at the title of the thread.

Same answer as above, really. The possibilities of finding an unusual pattern without previously specifying which are infinite, after all.

[PikeStance]

LOL, Moving the goal post fallacy. I was only adding my .02. My experience. In my experience, the more "7" is rolled the higher the chances of my wins.

If you want to make an intelligent counterargument you could argue that the way the AI behaves makes it more likely to lose mot of its resources due to hording them based on the coding of their behavior. Now that might explain that issue.

In regards to dice preferences when a robber is on the number or not. There is probability that is possible, but my observation is that it is little serendipitous. I never claim to keep statistics and I have never asked for any. I simply relaying my experience and seeing if anyone else had a similar experience. If the developers gives it any credence , then they can check it themselves and decide if it is a real issue or I am experiencing an anomaly.

I am not sure why you are getting your panties in a twist over this.

[MSISR]

Of course the user Alex is right. The games are clearly and irrefutably weighted in favor of the player who is favored by the system. And why can the distributors of the app do that to you users? Because you will still play. beyond a certain rank, you've invested too much to stop. after losing two games you want to at least restore your top rank before you stop playing. but if you manage to do that, you'll be hooked again. alex is right. It's not about fair gaming, but about binding as many users over the long term. this app does not exist to give you a nice experience, but to earn money with you. you will be made to lose whenever the engine desides to. and of course you will swallow it.

[76561199137014712]

I agree with the previous comments and thank Alex for his effort. How can it be too manipulate such an ingenious game (I've been playing Catan for 17 years)? That cannot be in the spirit of the inventor (Klaus Teuber). The developers of the online version are not interested at all. This is unacceptable!

[Ice-Nine]

Messaggio originale di MICatan:

Of course the user Alex is right. The games are clearly and irrefutably weighted in favor of the player who is favored by the system.

The only thing that is clear is that you have no idea what the words "clearly" or "irrefutably" mean. The author has failed to provide any evidence whatsoever to support the claim, let alone irrefutable evidence. They begin with the conclusion that dice rolls are being unfairly weighted to give a specific advantage and then provide conspiracy theories for why that might be, but they never actually demonstrate that dice rolls are being unfairly weighted in the first place.

I can't say for certain that dice rolls aren't being weighted. Only the developer can say that, and they have. But what I can say with 100% certainty is that there is zero reason to believe that dice rolls are being weighted. Just like there is no reason to believe that the sun will explode in 5 minutes, even if it's technically possible. There is no evidence or logic that would lead someone to such a conclusion.

Everything the author has provided is pure speculation and anecdotal confirmation bias. If you wanted to prove weighted dice in favor of specific players, you would need exhaustive data from thousands or tens of thousands of games of Catan. Instead the author has given us nothing but logical fallacies.

[N o i r]

Messaggio originale di PikeStance:

LOL, Moving the goal post fallacy. I was only adding my .02. My experience. In my experience, the more "7" is rolled the higher the chances of my wins.

If you want to make an intelligent counterargument you could argue that the way the AI behaves makes it more likely to lose mot of its resources due to hording them based on the coding of their behavior. Now that might explain that issue.

In regards to dice preferences when a robber is on the number or not. There is probability that is possible, but my observation is that it is little serendipitous. I never claim to keep statistics and I have never asked for any. I simply relaying my experience and seeing if anyone else had a similar experience. If the developers gives it any credence , then they can check it themselves and decide if it is a real issue or I am experiencing an anomaly.

I am not sure why you are getting your panties in a twist over this.

I did not move any goal post - I merely stated that the anecdotal observation presented are in no way proof of rigging; random is random, and it includes the possibility of being unlucky.

[N o i r]

Messaggio originale di MICatan:

Of course the user Alex is right. The games are clearly and irrefutably weighted in favor of the player who is favored by the system.

And where is your evidence to back this claim? Oh, right, you did not present it - because there is no such thing.

[MSISR]

Messaggio originale di N o i r:

Messaggio originale di MICatan:

Of course the user Alex is right. The games are clearly and irrefutably weighted in favor of the player who is favored by the system.

And where is your evidence to back this claim? Oh, right, you did not present it - because there is no such thing.

No, I did not provide evidence. and i do not have to. sue me for me being so rude to claim something i can not back up with a scientific standard study.
btw...i quess, i do not have to tell you empiric enthusiast, that there is no such thing like evidence that can prove something positively. I could collect data to falsify claims. this will not be possible. so i rely on a lot of playing experience and my rank as a GM.

Messaggio originale di Ice-Nine:

Messaggio originale di MICatan:

Of course the user Alex is right. The games are clearly and irrefutably weighted in favor of the player who is favored by the system.

The only thing that is clear is that you have no idea what the words "clearly" or "irrefutably" mean. The author has failed to provide any evidence whatsoever to support the claim, let alone irrefutable evidence. They begin with the conclusion that dice rolls are being unfairly weighted to give a specific advantage and then provide conspiracy theories for why that might be, but they never actually demonstrate that dice rolls are being unfairly weighted in the first place.

I can't say for certain that dice rolls aren't being weighted. Only the developer can say that, and they have. But what I can say with 100% certainty is that there is zero reason to believe that dice rolls are being weighted. Just like there is no reason to believe that the sun will explode in 5 minutes, even if it's technically possible. There is no evidence or logic that would lead someone to such a conclusion.

Everything the author has provided is pure speculation and anecdotal confirmation bias. If you wanted to prove weighted dice in favor of specific players, you would need exhaustive data from thousands or tens of thousands of games of Catan. Instead the author has given us nothing but logical fallacies.

thank you for lecturing me. let me return the favour by recommending to read popper et al. there you may find, if you read with attention, that there is no 1oo% certainty. but maybe i am wrong and you are the sole person, who found THE TRUE TRUTH.


I do understand, why some of you waste time calling out fellow players on the audacity of expressing their negative experience. its a way to come clear and get some relief of their frustration. still...asking for scientific evidence in a gaming forum is kind of...well...plain right stupid.
and some of you get a kick out of having once read a scientific paper , making them produce theirselves as mr know it all. no, you arent.
but go on..show the world how smart and educated you are. make more friends. tell people how dumb they are. that will impress everyone.

btw..the user alex still is right. the games are not running randomly. they are, of course, KI-controlled. no conspiracy, just scam

[NEgative]

Rather consider this with the imperfect rng:

How are the rating changes scored?
Usually in my matches I see people piling up on and beating down the player who is doing the worst. This is sound strategy as usually the last one loses rating while top 2 gain rating. End result is that it's actually more beneficial to avoid becoming last one than actually trying to win, because you 'win' by getting second while boosting the snowballing player to victory.
If the rating system was really honest and didn't encourage toxic behavior, then winner should gain a lot of rating, while everyone else should lose together as much as the winner gains, maybe even equal amounts. The way I see it, this is almost the only way to avoid toxic boosting of winning players and kicking of losing players. This is relevant as it's still a luck based game, you can easily start losing hard only because the rolls just don't roll beneficially to you, and then this ends up compounded by 1st and 2nd players boosting each other and kicking you down even harder.

[N o i r]

"No, I did not provide evidence. and i do not have to."

Sure, you don't have to - but you do if you want to be taken seriously with your claim: the burden of proof lies always with the claimant.
And exceptional statements - such as stating the game's RNG is rigged - demand exceptional evidence; randomness include the possibility of being unlucky, and we humans have a tendency of making guesses and identifying patterns... even when those patterns are just lucky/unlucky coincidences.

"i do not have to tell you empiric enthusiast, that there is no such thing like evidence that can prove something positively."

No, but there are ways, with enough data, to prove that a series of events is so unlikely and diverging from expected distribution to the point of being rigged. For a very good example of this, watch Karl Jobst's analysis of Dream's cheating scandal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8TlTaTHgzo

"asking for scientific evidence in a gaming forum is kind of...well...plain right stupid."

No, it is not. What is stupid is making clearly false accusations against the devs without even a shred of evidence besides one's subjective "feelings".

[MSISR]

Messaggio originale di N o i r:

"No, I did not provide evidence. and i do not have to."

Sure, you don't have to - but you do if you want to be taken seriously with your claim: the burden of proof lies always with the claimant.
And exceptional statements - such as stating the game's RNG is rigged - demand exceptional evidence; randomness include the possibility of being unlucky, and we humans have a tendency of making guesses and identifying patterns... even when those patterns are just lucky/unlucky coincidences.

"i do not have to tell you empiric enthusiast, that there is no such thing like evidence that can prove something positively."

No, but there are ways, with enough data, to prove that a series of events is so unlikely and diverging from expected distribution to the point of being rigged. For a very good example of this, watch Karl Jobst's analysis of Dream's cheating scandal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8TlTaTHgzo

"asking for scientific evidence in a gaming forum is kind of...well...plain right stupid."

No, it is not. What is stupid is making clearly false accusations against the devs without even a shred of evidence besides one's subjective "feelings".

semantics. again. i wont argue with you about constructions like "clearly false" and "proof/evidence". I wont argue with you about the difference of the terms feeling and experience. there is no point in discussing lack of access to some required fundamental data to back up my claims, since i am not a member of the devs, who own this specific data.
no need for me to play intellectual ping pong with you, i would not stand a chance against your self-projection. i instead bow to your intellectual superiority.
have a nice day