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Secondly, have you tried upgrading to Line Infantry? I've personally never been targeted by Britain or France, but that's always been enough for Russia at least. Japan's starting army is massive.
Third, if you know it's definitely coming, and you seriously can't do anything about it, as you have suggested, just don't build so aggressively. The majority of expenses in the game are from Government Wages, i.e. Construction Sectors and Goverment Administrations. If you're mostly just taxing Peasants, and not acquiring a bunch of Interest, you're not going to go into a death spiral.
That is all to say, this seems like a skill issue.
Expect the AI to still be more aggressive to Japan than they used to be; don't downgrade your Barracks to cheese the Boshin War, upgrade to Line Infantry and a basic navy as soon as you can afford to, and make sure to Improve Relations with the Great Powers (especially Russia and Great Britain).
The issue is you can't build up your economy enough to even afford line infantry and a basic navy before either France or UK declare on you. Even after downgrading for the cheese it's still too expensive to go with even 20-25 line infantry
Before I can offer any further advice for playing Japan, I need to ask; did you start your game before or after 1.7.4?
"Fixed some issues with AI strategy logic for isolationist countries which was inadvertently applied to non isolationist countries, causing the AI to generally avoid befriending other countries"
That's the bug that led to excessive belligerence towards countries like Japan.
As a minor or unrecognized nation, you have very little credit to work with. Don't overbuild your construction sectors and avoid accruing interest as much as possible. It's gonna take a LONG time for your economy to properly start snowballing, so be patient. As Japan, pass Agrarianism as soon as possible (bolster the Rural Folk), as you have a lot of arable land and the changes to building ownership make farming the cheapest way to empower the RF (nationalized buildings, and farms you make yourself, don't have aristocrats).
if you're looking for good tutoral countries, try sweden or belgium. both fairly small and easy to manage and they don't start with crippling laws that hold them back. and they're both strong enough to beat up african, south american or asian countries and become colonial powers.
Only thing I have is defensive treaty with Joseon and 100 pointy stick units.
For whatever it's worth, whenever I play Japan on the current patch, the UK still declares in the 1840s pretty much every game. And that's with me not cheesing or deleting units or anything, that's with the starting 101 units half upgraded to line infantry. I play that start a lot, probably done it about 10-13 times this patch, and in all but 2 the UK declared in the 1840s. One other time it was France that declared the war instead (I think in the early 1850s), and the one other time they never declared (played into the mid/late 1860s).
So there is still excessive belligerence towards countries like Japan in the current patch. The Economic Imperialism strategy is very aggressive towards opening up valuable markets (specifically for Japan: it's written in the code to favor opening Japan's market if Japan has a GDP over 2m and if the attacking GP has 25+ naval units and nationalism invented, and further encouraged to attack Japan if Japan's GDP is over 5m).
As a Japan player, if ANY GP has the Economic Imperialism strategy and an interest in the Japan region, they are eventually going to try and force Japan to open the market. It's scripted in the game files to do so. The good news is, you can probably fend off the GPs that come for you if you don't expand before you are technologically on par (particularly if you get to Line Infantry and have at least 30-40 units upgraded before they land), because you will massively outnumber most of their invasion forces. So it is annoying because it will cost you time and money to fend them off while you're trying to build up a functioning economy, but it's doable though you'll only be able to get a white peace in the end.