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SO yeh, that option is no longer available.
You only have the option to Conquer the state, make it a protectorate or demand investment rights.
At least it's not as severe as the RNG in HOI4 that locks you out of entire paths completely with no possible intervention on your part, it's still a pain in the ass.
Accept all their requests.
Check journal for any relevant details.
Raise relationship with Russia (and France; my problem was Russia, not France) and prepare for war with Mexico.
Rival other countries to get diplo points as needed.
Mexico may conquer Texas before union; so prepare for war but avoid allowing Russia (or France) to side with Mexico.
Raise relations with Mexico during truces so Russia (or France) stops guaranteeing.
Be more worried about civil war, because aristocrats are a more serious threat than any stagnant, regressive neighbor
Make sure you complete the Oregon border dispute.
Unusually they were winning more often then not in my tests, but they did lose at least once, and that was due to a failed attack.
In short, I suspect it is completely RNG. The first fight will dictate who wins. The AI always attacks, and depending on how the fight plays out either side can win or lose.
I did notice when they did lose they tried to shove on liquor to their army, which started to apply a shortage, but this wouldn't have any meaningful impact after their loss as neither side can recover quick enough.