75% drop in player count in less than 30 days

[bvrakvs]

Great job paradox

[MP]

That's a lot of arguing over a supposedly dead game. I mean, dead games normally don't warrant such attention, do they?

[bvrakvs]

Цитата допису MP:

That's a lot of arguing over a supposedly dead game. I mean, dead games normally don't warrant such attention, do they?

It is fun to see a disaster, like hinderburg burning down

[ArminiusdeCherusk]

Or dead games don't sell 500.000 copies :D

[Kimlin]

Цитата допису TigerRus:

Цитата допису ArminiusdeCherusk:

Or dead games don't sell 500.000 copies :D

Yes. Odd though. If they have sold 500,000 copies. A tad weird only 65000 logged on in the first day and subsequently a declining number ever since

One suspects the 500k is the total keys distributed and not keys sold to joe public

Do you really think that a peak player count of 65,000 for a day means that only 65,000 players played that day? I am really starting to wonder.

[Kimlin]

Цитата допису TigerRus:

Цитата допису Kimlin:

Do you really think that a peak player count of 65,000 for a day means that only 65,000 players played that day? I am really starting to wonder.

Yes . They havnt sold 500k keys to joe public. even if some were not using steam the first day log in figures would be much higher so highly likely if u also look at the daily unique figures

Marketing at its worst

Yes, you think 65,000 peak players means only 65,000 players played that day? You are either a child, which I now feel bad for debating with you or you’re an idiot.

[Kimlin]

Цитата допису TigerRus:

Цитата допису TigerRus:

Yes . They havnt sold 500k keys to joe public. even if some were not using steam the first day log in figures would be much higher so highly likely if u also look at the daily unique figures

Marketing at its worst

Lets reverse the argument abd say they had sold 500k. where are they now when active players dont even muster enough players to get in the top 100

This would mean player activity is even worse and fell of a cliff

485K players cannot be wrong

Once again, you think peak player count of 15,000 means only 15,000 players played that day? Is that right?

[Kimlin]

Цитата допису TigerRus:

Цитата допису Kimlin:

Once again, you think peak player count of 15,000 means only 15,000 players played that day? Is that right?

How many played today. You do realise there is a concurrent view and a daily figure view in the drop down box

Okay, so do you think 15,000 peak players, means that only 15,000 unique players played that day?

[kgkong]

Kimlin is trying to point out that "15,000 peak players" means at one moment, the most unique players logged in were 15,000. But an hour earlier, there could have been 10,000 other unique players playing. Two hours earlier could have seen 8,000 unique players and an hour before that could have seen 10,000 other unique players.

Now I'm throwing larger numbers, don't actually have access to these specific metrics, but peak players just means for one minute there was a total of that many unique players logged in. How many total unique players per day is a completely different number and could range for as low as theoretically 15,000 players, or as high as 500k players (the max number of keys sold).

[kgkong]

Цитата допису TigerRus:

Цитата допису KingGorillaKong:

Kimlin is trying to point out that "15,000 peak players" means at one moment, the most unique players logged in were 15,000. But an hour earlier, there could have been 10,000 other unique players playing. Two hours earlier could have seen 8,000 unique players and an hour before that could have seen 10,000 other unique players.

Now I'm throwing larger numbers, don't actually have access to these specific metrics, but peak players just means for one minute there was a total of that many unique players logged in. How many total unique players per day is a completely different number and could range for as low as theoretically 15,000 players, or as high as 500k players (the max number of keys sold).

Yes i realise that but that isnt my point. My point was how many unique players are playing the game today. , which moving forwrd is probably more important. Each unique player is 1 gaming key or potential future dlc. You can sell how many u like but if no one os playing numbers sold is irrelevant

Which is kind of what Kimlin was pointing out. 15,000k peak players is not the per day unique players per day number.
We don't get to see this number publicly unless the team releases it.

And a per day number isn't entirely an accurate metric to use to show if a game is doing well. You have to cross the per day metric with same day out of a previous average, you have to cross it with other trends going on for that day, for that week, in the game's trends, you have to cross it with other games and news. And even then, you gotta piece together with your unique players per week/month demographic and figure out how many sub demographics those gamers fall into as more serious fans of other genres and how much time they play.

Ah... number analysis. How I love and hate you. Get's really complex when you wanna actually consider what a "unique players per day" metric can mean.

[Kimlin]

If we want to pretend the charts tell us whatever we want than we can do this. An hourly break down of the player count for today.

9243 00:00 UTC
9017 01:00 UTC
9197 02:00 UTC
9611 03:00 UTC
9350 04:00 UTC
9057 05:00 UTC
8424 06:00 UTC
8014 07:00 UTC
8143 08:00 UTC
8472 09:00 UTC
8893 10:00 UTC
9822 11:00 UTC
10976 12:00 UTC
12142 13:00 UTC
12883 14:00 UTC
13093 15:00 UTC
12636 16:00 UTC
11980 17:00 UTC
12021 18:00 UTC
11961 19:00 UTC
11957 20:00 UTC
11675 21:00 UTC
11051 22:00 UTC
9930 23:00 UTC

So we can say that there were 249,548 players today. Is that accurate? I don't know but it is probably closer to that than 15,000

[kgkong]

Цитата допису Kimlin:

If we want to pretend the charts tell us whatever we want than we can do this. An hourly break down of the player count for today.

9243 00:00 UTC
9017 01:00 UTC
9197 02:00 UTC
9611 03:00 UTC
9350 04:00 UTC
9057 05:00 UTC
8424 06:00 UTC
8014 07:00 UTC
8143 08:00 UTC
8472 09:00 UTC
8893 10:00 UTC
9822 11:00 UTC
10976 12:00 UTC
12142 13:00 UTC
12883 14:00 UTC
13093 15:00 UTC
12636 16:00 UTC
11980 17:00 UTC
12021 18:00 UTC
11961 19:00 UTC
11957 20:00 UTC
11675 21:00 UTC
11051 22:00 UTC
9930 23:00 UTC

So we can say that there were 249,548 players today. Is that accurate? I don't know but it is probably closer to that than 15,000

If you can find a bell curve for the unique players per day for other Paradox games, you can guestimate with some good accuracy what the number would be.

I suppose you could just take the average which would be 249,548+15,000 divided by 2. Rounding numbers off for easy math in my head, 132,250 unique players.

But we also should probably be considering what the average length of time it is that a player spends playing Victoria 3 each day, and then we could more accurately guestimate a number.

[Kimlin]

Цитата допису KingGorillaKong:

But we also should probably be considering what the average length of time it is that a player spends playing Victoria 3 each day, and then we could more accurately guestimate a number.

There lies the problem. A variable that cannot be solved for. Well at least that we do not currently have enough information to solve for.

[kgkong]

Цитата допису Kimlin:

Цитата допису KingGorillaKong:

But we also should probably be considering what the average length of time it is that a player spends playing Victoria 3 each day, and then we could more accurately guestimate a number.

There lies the problem. A variable that cannot be solved for. Well at least that we do not currently have enough information to solve for.

Just that the peak total players is the theoretical bottom end of the total unique players per day. But since the probable odds that only the same 15,000 people played the whole day is pretty slim as the average playtime is likely not 4-8 hours range, likely lower, we can safely assume that the lowest unique players per day is the value of ">15,000". Note the greater than symbol, and not equal to or greater than symbol.


Man this game brings out the math nerd in me. lmfao

[Ashling]

Цитата допису KingGorillaKong:

Just that the peak total players is the theoretical bottom end of the total unique players per day. But since the probable odds that only the same 15,000 people played the whole day is pretty slim as the average playtime is likely not 4-8 hours range, likely lower, we can safely assume that the lowest unique players per day is the value of ">15,000". Note the greater than symbol, and not equal to or greater than symbol.


Man this game brings out the math nerd in me. lmfao

You'd also have to contend with other days. If you don't, then you're really only finding the unique players that happened to play on a Wednesday which could lead to problems if extrapolated.

[Fatbill]

People are waiting for the game to "get better".

People that bought have largely stopped playing until it does. (Thus player numbers below 10k now).
People that have not bought it are waiting until it does to buy.