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Am doing a playthrough of USA and they kept backing down before war could break out. Mobilizing prior to war breaking out can do this, same with conscripting since bulk of forces come from that.
I worked around the issue and truce by doing a diplo play on one of their allies with a defensive pact, dragging Mexico into another war where I pushed all the 'conquer state' war goals on them. I didn't conscript or mobilize prior to war breaking out and it stuck.
Yes, that happens when Mexico backs down. Pull a Harry Turtledove and go for Chihuahua and Sonora as well :D worked for me.
I think that's the only way. I did a test by completing Manifest Destiny in the decisions, and not doing anything until 1847. No event fired.