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Start by adding other factions to the government, even if that reduces legitimacy to get colonization.
Then try to attack the shogunate through institutions by switching out the police force to a professional one.
Removing serfdom would be a huge win, but usually that is too risky unless you at least marginalize the samurai.
All the time bolster the church to pull people from the shogunate. Once the church is strong enough add the church to your government (if you have not already) and remove the shogunate, even when its reduces your legitiamcy, and start suppressing them.
I got a event chain which let me tank the shogunates influence by underhand tactics.
One tip I picked up, and it still took a ridiculous amount of time, but right from the start pump intelligenista by building all the logging industries you can in your capitol and setting them to use tools, that gets you a lot of machinists etc.
Once they get enough clout you can stick them in government (and maybe remove Samurai) and still have over 50% legitimacy, enough to try to pass landed voting, that's when political parties will come into play and you'll finally be able to get traction to deposing the conservative government.
The game is dreadfully bare bones compared to games like EU4, CK3 and Stellaris right now (and that last one is a sandbox, not based in/around history).
No you are not playing as the Shogun, or the Emperor. You are the spirit of the nation.
Yes the Landowners are powerful and conservative. Suppress them.
Yes, you need to change the ruling party to pass laws like colonization. Do it.
Major events didnt happen? A) It didnt sound like you had any success changing anything in Japan so why would something like the civil war or restoration fire. B) There are few scripted events. Period.
I'd go on but TLDR.... Practice managing your IGs better.
Sarcasm aside, I haven't played Japan but I would expect there to be some challenges, and some of the proposals upthread sound right to me. I've forced through policies my government didn't like by temporarily adding another party to my government and taking the legitimacy hit.
In the "thinking outside the box" department, one poster got into a war with Great Britain - and lost, getting forced into Free Trade.
It's a bit of a tricky game, and I've restarted a few times as I figure things out and learn. But in my current game it's 1881, restoration has been complete for 15 years, the landowners are the 4th most influential faction behind Intelligentsia, Industrialists, and Peasants in that order.
EDIT: Probably worth adding, the intelligentsia are first for a reason. They're the only other group with a major draw for aristocrats, so boosting them is a great way to undercut the Shogunate.