chances on event is a lie

[no_way_jose]

the result was fixed, even it says 75%, you still will fail cause the result was already set to another option.

[The Former]

We hear this about every Paradox game and it never is. Sometimes, it really is just the RNG being crap. Take XCOM, for instance, where a 100% shot can miss (because it's actually 99.97% and you rolled 99.98).

[no_way_jose]

Originally posted by Lockfågel, the Paradox Knight:

We hear this about every Paradox game and it never is. Sometimes, it really is just the RNG being crap. Take XCOM, for instance, where a 100% shot can miss (because it's actually 99.97% and you rolled 99.98).

No, I've reload and select the event 30 times, statistically it should result approximate to 75% of success, but instead it isn't, it fail every single time.

[Catashe]

And its true.. Certain laws aren't a true RNG and seem to be weighted towards failure more than what the success chance is based on country it seems to me... I could reload a 20% chance on laws that weaken the shogunate in japan 100 times and you won't get a success on somethin that rolls a fail.. just won't happen and its never a different failure event either.. its always the same failure 100 times.. which in my mind is BS.. don't show us a success chance if it ain't a true one

[DinoMight]

technically its RNG because your outcome is decided at the start of the cycle, so the % chances are actually there for the next round if this one fails (but the game knows if it will fail or not before law timer goes out)

[DinoMight]

so that means if you savescum 5 days before law end cycle (when you find out if it has passed or was stalled)
it will always be the same thing, because it was/will be determined at the start of the cycle, it means you need to wait full 180 days (minimum) to know the outcome unless you go into game save files to see what it will be)

[GuyMonkey]

The answer is very easy: The RNG-Seeds are saved into the save game. Loding a save doesn't change the outcome.
To get another outcome you need to load earlier and do something different to change the random seed. But for some things this is really difficult.

Want a proof? This is an example from a save game:
416={
law=law_right_of_assembly country=8
random_seed=401854604
enactment_start_date=1880.1.4
progress=0.52818
enactment_scope={
root={
type=ctry
identity=8
}
seed=462123484
}
}

[no_way_jose]

Originally posted by DinoMight:

so that means if you savescum 5 days before law end cycle (when you find out if it has passed or was stalled)
it will always be the same thing, because it was/will be determined at the start of the cycle, it means you need to wait full 180 days (minimum) to know the outcome unless you go into game save files to see what it will be)

I know you are right, its just feels so stupid when the numbers of chance bouncing up and down and we tried everything to pass a low including events that adding chances, but turns out to have zero effect in this cycle. Like some sort of weird religion taking the hope all the way down to the afterlife.

[DinoMight]

Originally posted by TripleHman:

Originally posted by DinoMight:

so that means if you savescum 5 days before law end cycle (when you find out if it has passed or was stalled)
it will always be the same thing, because it was/will be determined at the start of the cycle, it means you need to wait full 180 days (minimum) to know the outcome unless you go into game save files to see what it will be)

I know you are right, its just feels so stupid when the numbers of chance bouncing up and down and we tried everything to pass a low including events that adding chances, but turns out to have zero effect in this cycle. Like some sort of weird religion taking the hope all the way down to the afterlife.

i agree, even though it is rng
it doesnt feel good nor right

[Zero, Dark Knight]

Yeah, imagine if there was a real political system, where you having elected parties in, actually gave you predicted votes for/against - and you had to promise them things/finance things.
Actual depth and mechanics for in-game politics, not just an easy simple RNG :P

but that'd make this game into an actual political simulator I guess.. when it's built around being a profit simulator.

[steeldog]

Originally posted by Catashe:

And its true.. Certain laws aren't a true RNG and seem to be weighted towards failure more than what the success chance is based on country it seems to me... I could reload a 20% chance on laws that weaken the shogunate in japan 100 times and you won't get a success on somethin that rolls a fail.. just won't happen and its never a different failure event either.. its always the same failure 100 times.. which in my mind is BS.. don't show us a success chance if it ain't a true one

i think that problem not in RNG.
i think that they have some cheat protection. in opposit case you can do what do you want using save-load. i think, that maybe generator calculates value not at the moment it happends. maybe - before, or smth like this...

[steeldog]

Originally posted by DinoMight:

so that means if you savescum 5 days before law end cycle (when you find out if it has passed or was stalled)
it will always be the same thing, because it was/will be determined at the start of the cycle, it means you need to wait full 180 days (minimum) to know the outcome unless you go into game save files to see what it will be)

i'm not sure that whole cycle. i did some tests and realize that result can chandes during cycle. i think that actions which can change persentage make recalculation of value.

[argentus]

It is possible to mod the event's chances/outcome if you change the date that the law will finish the cycle.

Let's say for example that you have a low that is going to finish in 20 days, if you say change the legitimacy of your government so that it finishes in 10, that gets you a different result. Change it to to 40 and you get a different one.

There are basically 'scales of results' when it comes to changing the law cycle date though so it's good to save beforehand, experiment to see what date changes get what results and go from there. Sometimes it's as bad as choosing a meh result vs a 'going towards 0% spiral' result.

this is also something you can do after selecting the law rather than needing to load beforehand in choosing the law and then changing the seed.

Hope this helps and I do agree that the whole 'halfassed RNG being all there is to passing laws' is a VERY annoying aspect of this game, especially as it's pretty clear that it's meant as a delaying tactic due to players really needing to just find the right law combo and then leave it alone, so they bloated it/weighed it down with this 'fixed RNG' mechanic to save them having to do actual work designing a real system.

[kgkong]

Probability also doesn't mean 75% chance means that 75% of the time it will turn out that way. Probability just means there is a 75 in 100 chance that something can turn out that way.
You can have a coin, flip it 1000 times. Probability says there is a 50/50 chance to get heads and tails all the time. But you can get heads 20% of the time and tails 80% of the time. The next person to try this can get close to 50/50 heads/tails.

A lot of people seem to have issues understanding probability.

[DinoMight]

Originally posted by TripleHman:

Originally posted by Lockfågel, the Paradox Knight:

We hear this about every Paradox game and it never is. Sometimes, it really is just the RNG being crap. Take XCOM, for instance, where a 100% shot can miss (because it's actually 99.97% and you rolled 99.98).

No, I've reload and select the event 30 times, statistically it should result approximate to 75% of success, but instead it isn't, it fail every single time.

it is RNG but the result is decided right in the beginning when event procs
so if you want different result
you need to reload a save from before that even fires/law change starts
and than wait the whole event to see if its successful or not, which ironically makes your event not pop at all haha

its the dumbest thing ive seen in a long while and vic3 is full of such silliness

[DinoMight]

Originally posted by steeldog:

Originally posted by DinoMight:

so that means if you savescum 5 days before law end cycle (when you find out if it has passed or was stalled)
it will always be the same thing, because it was/will be determined at the start of the cycle, it means you need to wait full 180 days (minimum) to know the outcome unless you go into game save files to see what it will be)

i'm not sure that whole cycle. i did some tests and realize that result can chandes during cycle. i think that actions which can change persentage make recalculation of value.

nah, PDX themselves explained how it works and they are not satisfied with it and they said they gonna change how events work (one day after you hand them even more money)