Statistical Analysis of For The King's RNG

[Hoggers]

Let me preface everything by saying this isn't a huge sample size or pool or data or anything but I feel as if it is a good proof of concept to me and people like me who doubt the RNG in this game working as it should sometimes. In the spreadsheet posted within this discussion you will find 400 rolls; 100 of which was performed while at a listed percentage, the percentages in question are 70, 78, 83, and 95 as they all represent either a starting point in either apprentice or journeyman difficulty as one of a few classes or a general maximum or minimum that any player would realistically be working with.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m4tCVPzwsozQ49ZxDZMjQKsBpS2OTEFp_T3eil079LE/edit?usp=sharing

In conclusion for anyone on either side of the opinion that the RNG is or is not balanced this should be good news to know that the RNG plays out almost exactly as it should in terms of the players rolls at the very least. This is of course not taking into account values that cannot be easily measured through data given to you in the game (ex. enemy hit chances, dodge chances, etc.) but as far as the player should be concerned everything is working properly and there should be no more questioning of anyone who sees this whether or not that RNG is skewed, weighted, or in any way against the player no matter how much it may seem so at times.

[kory]

Nice, very well done. What did you do to get the data? did you have to just start the game fresh each time or did you come up with a clever way to make it efficient?

[squirleybob]

If you want more data, I have about 20 recorded plays of FTK (from before and after the DLC dropped), but only through Glittering Mines. Still gives a good variety of percentages and lots of rolls.

[Hoggers]

Originally posted by kory:

Nice, very well done. What did you do to get the data? did you have to just start the game fresh each time or did you come up with a clever way to make it efficient?

I used a cheat table on Cheat Engine to make my dodge 100 and adjust my damage values to a point in which I didn't do any damage so I didn't have to go through as much tedium. Credit for the cheat table goes to "aanpsx" on fearlessrevolution.com (This is only to credit the person whose resource I used in my testing and not supposed to provide a means for others to get cheats). Obviously though if someone wants to use such a thing I can't stop them and all and I also have given exposure to it and provided a link to the website but I will say I don't know if it is accepted by the devs, whether it works online, or really anything beyond what I used it to test in a solo game. I would also advise against use of this even if it does work online because it would ruin the fun of others playing, so even if you do use this program and accompanying cheat table please do not go online.

[Hoggers]

Originally posted by squirleybob:

If you want more data, I have about 20 recorded plays of FTK (from before and after the DLC dropped), but only through Glittering Mines. Still gives a good variety of percentages and lots of rolls.

I appreciate the offer but what I have done here I feel like already shows a good representation of how extremely close the RNG replicates theoretical perfect outcomes to the point where any more data being collected and compared would be unnecessary. Also on top of that this took me several hours yesterday of formatting the spreadsheet in an easy to read way after having taken the data from in game, writing it down, then having to then transfer that data into said spreadsheet so I have no interest in pursuing that but I do appreciate you offering up your footage for me to use for testing.

[Cryerborg]

I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be upset by this.

[Hoggers]

Originally posted by Cryerborg:

I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be upset by this.

By what exactly? If anything people should be glad to hear that RNG is working as intended and the only other thing I imagine you could be referring to is that I had given exposure to the cheat tables for the game and that is understandable but people who will cheat would likely have seeked things such as that anyways.

[Cryerborg]

Oh, no, nothing like that. A very specific group of people will be upset that their primary excuse for the game being unfair and/or unwinnable is invalid. Personally I'm glad the devs didn't take time to create fake probability.

[Bullett00th]

Originally posted by Hoggers:

Originally posted by Cryerborg:

I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be upset by this.

By what exactly?

Nothing personal but it was you who made a big thread about RNG not adding up in the game in the first place.

I'm glad everything is working as intended but then again I never doubted that, and I'll double down on the statement that our perception of the RNG is dependant on our emotional reaction to specific situations.
Unlucky streaks or even singe unlucky rolls may mean the death of a character or even a party wipe, leaving a bitter taste of unfairness in the player's mouth.

In these cases it's important to simply realize that the game is made by people, in this case - by a small indie studio, who would be suicidal to make specific decisions about rigging the game against the player which may lead to frustration and refusing to play the game or buy any future installments from the dev.

[Hoggers]

Originally posted by Bullett00th:

Originally posted by Hoggers:

By what exactly?

Nothing personal but it was you who made a big thread about RNG not adding up in the game in the first place.

I'm glad everything is working as intended but then again I never doubted that, and I'll double down on the statement that our perception of the RNG is dependant on our emotional reaction to specific situations.
Unlucky streaks or even singe unlucky rolls may mean the death of a character or even a party wipe, leaving a bitter taste of unfairness in the player's mouth.

In these cases it's important to simply realize that the game is made by people, in this case - by a small indie studio, who would be suicidal to make specific decisions about rigging the game against the player which may lead to frustration and refusing to play the game or buy any future installments from the dev.

It was me that had posted about the RNG seeming unfair and based on outcomes that I have experienced being as unlikely as they were I think it would be fair for me or anyone else to come to that conclusion. As I said in the earlier post I had on several occasions experienced over 1/1,000,000 odds leading me to believe that there may have been something wrong as I think anyone would think after such a streak of bad luck. Besides that though it feels as if you just posted to be passive-aggressive towards me which to that I would say I guess if you feel it necessary go ahead but also at no point did I or would I have ever thought that the devs would have intentionally skewed random outcomes against the player and I thought I made that more than clear. Just because something may have happened doesn't mean there was malicious intent behind it and never did I or anyone else there attempt to make that claim.

[kory]

I have to say, this was a fantastic analysis that you did. Its easy to complain about the rng, because it does feel bad when unlikely things happen at a critical moment, but to actually put in the effort to collect some real data and check if the rng is all working is a great thing to do.

[Hoggers]

Originally posted by kory:

I have to say, this was a fantastic analysis that you did. Its easy to complain about the rng, because it does feel bad when unlikely things happen at a critical moment, but to actually put in the effort to collect some real data and check if the rng is all working is a great thing to do.

I appreciate you saying that but more so than anything I just enjoy breaking down how games work as well as with there being a discussion I've seen multiple times before of whether or not RNG worked as it should so I wanted to know for myself and anyone who was interested if there was any merit to that claim.

[Cryerborg]

It's a surprisingly rational way to approach what might be a problem. Test it and figure it out instead of standing on a soap box about how it isn't fair. Good work, Hoggers.

[Hoggers]

Originally posted by Cryerborg:

It's a surprisingly rational way to approach what might be a problem. Test it and figure it out instead of standing on a soap box about how it isn't fair. Good work, Hoggers.

Thanks for the support on the post I greatly appreciate it.

[Bullett00th]

Originally posted by Hoggers:

Besides that though it feels as if you just posted to be passive-aggressive towards me

Fair enough, sorry if I did and I'll join everyone in complimenting you on the detailed analysis!

[DJDiceZ]

This, of course, does not mean that the chance of being ♥♥♥♥ out of luck with rolls is excluded.

And in my experience you're more often out of luck than not. Even if the rolls are fair, that doesn't necessarily prove that combat is, as some things in there aren't included as op themselves stated.

Ultimately this is a die roll game so while skill is involved and can make an impact on the outcome of your run, so can rng. It's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's not necessarily fair either.

Still, good job with the spreadsheet.