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mostly i am wondering if the campaign is just gonna feel like no matter what you do you're getting rekt
nah, you are being too romantic.
To wait for the radio message announcing the surrender, then you sail to America to work on nuclear weapons and live out your days as some rich but anonymous smuck in the golden states.
Not really though, you definitely couldn't in practice and in theory it's so implausible to be not worth mentioning. By 44 the game should be feeling very hard. ASW had finally become enough of a thing that Uboats had become largely ineffective by then, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to feel like it's almost impossible to successfully raid a convoy. Short of that though in game terms the only way you could concievably damage enough shipping would be to turn off damage, limited ammuniton, and limited fuel, so that you could just charge any group of ships and never waste time refueling or rearming. Otherwise there is literally NO WAY one ship could do enough, even if it was the best performing ship of the war to ahistorical levels.
I remember playing the "Aces" flight sim DOS games as a kid. They were pretty great for the time, and I loved "Aces over Normandy" even though as a kid I couldn't really get anywhere playing with much realism on. If you play for the RAF or USAAF you will win if you fail every mission, where you can be a decorated ace of the Luftwaffe with 50 confirmed personal kills and you'll still lose, and when I was seven I guess that kind of bothered me, but even that hypothetical super ace just was never going to shoot down enough allied bombers to make a real difference. Read war stories and you can find plenty of instances of real-life heroes who did something incredible that no human should be able to accomplish on the battlefield, but you won't find stories of a single man or single tank being able to sway war conditions enough to single-handedly win the war for their entire multi-country military alliance. I really don't mind the game reflecting that, and think it's impressive if they come up with a way to realistically alter the timeline and stretch out the defeat based on your actions. Victory in the game should be "survive the war" and I suppose you can use lack of casualties, renown, and tonnage sank as a scoreboard if you're into that kind of thing.
War in Atlantic was not decisive theathre, even if you would sunk the same tonnage as whole Kriegsmarine did (14 000 000 GRT), it wouldn ´t affect final outcome, probably only prolong the war, cause more suffering and let Soviets occupy whole Europe as D-Day might not happen soon enough
so...I wouldn´t consider it "victory"