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The thalmor can literally capture anybody they want under suspicion of Talos Worship, baseless or not. If they really did want her dead, they could find her, take her away for worshiping Talos and then after a few rounds of torture, execute her.
The Fact that Kematu traveled so far to find one woman, and still doesn't even kill her, but intends to go all the back to Hammerfell (border crossing is illegal by the way). If that wasn't enough he doesn't attack you despite that he heavily outnumbers you when you first meet him, comes alone when you agree to trick Saadia and then pays you quite well for the assist. Saadia does too, which probably means she was a noble.
Edit: This happened very early game for me. After the main quest things could had been different. Not really my business at all but probs would had helped the woman stay on the run. If she was a spy she would be pretty worthless spy and fearing spies to the point they are hunted down is like witch hunts of middle ages, stupid, and full of paranoia. If she is a spy I don't care until proven to really be such. Just because someone say so does not make it so.
If you're going to kill both of them get money from both of them. You can receive both rewards and then some if you do it in a specific way. You normally get 500 gold, but you can actually walk away with 1290 gold.
You let Kematu Paralyze her, then talk to him for the 500 gold reward, then Kill him and loot his body for another 200 gold. Once Saadia recovers she will be hostile, but if you use calm then talk to her she will also reward you another 500 gold. Then when she become hostile once again, kill her. You will get an inheritance letter from her by courier for 100 gold, minus a 10% tax for 90.
1290 gold, a 1190 gold profit if you paid that prisoners fee, not including and loot you may have acquired.
The "selling out of a city" the Alik'r refer to may only have happened around 20 years ago, when Hammerfell pushed out the Thalmor after a long and bloody war. Yet, the quest is written like it's a recent event. Whoever wrote it simply forgot this tiny bit of lore. Whoops?
Therefore:
1. Bethesda became crap at writing.
2. Don't bother to look for a deeper meaning where the authors didn't even bother with matters of consistency.
3. Personally, I simply assume that Saadia indeed spoke out against a growing Thalmor influence "right now", and the Thalmor hired some bandits to off her. Probably through a rival clan/house/faction/etc, and that's why she had to flee. The whole story Kematu invented is utter BS, but what do you expect from a bandit with camel dung for brains? Therefore, I kill him for assuming that I'm stupid enough to fall for that.
you do understand this is a bethesda game, right? there is no right answer. it's not supposed to be something you can solve. you pick a choice and run with it. who started the great war with nukes wiping out the planet in oct 2077, china? america? Who's on the side of good, stormcloaks or imperials?
if you're the kind that need definitive answers, pick a different game company. the only rule here is kill the thing trying to kill you first. Alex's #2 is dead on - don't read much past anything, because when you do, you'll find gaps in timelines in lore, opposing/conflicting data, even names being different, because they couldn't bring themselves to bother enough to care for 5 freakin' minutes.
I side with her, simply because she's boring and easy to trap, but taking out those curved sword weirdos at lvl 3 is quite a challenge! That's the level of thought required, nothing more, "are you having fun?"
No he isn't, Saadia's urn appearing in the Hall of the Dead can be explained both by game mechanic as well as in universe traditions.
The entire game is written as if the Great War happened five or maybe ten years ago as opposed to an entire generation prior.
Lol I am stuck in that quest. Want to get it done before moving to Solstenheim.
https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrimspecialedition/mods/6126
(Don't forget the unofficial patch as well).
Or just ignore the quest altogether, not only is it stupid, but also utterly bugged.
If you're stuck in it, finish it with console commands:
https://en.uesp.net/wiki/Skyrim:Blood_on_the_Ice#Bugs
I hope it is not bugged. So far no quests bugged. I am stuck in a way that I haven't found the woman after investigating the mansion. Will probs have to check out UESP for her schedule, that could be the same as asking people around about her whereabouts. But thanks of the help.