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Looks like it doesn't really matter which option you take.
I remember another discussion on this, the conclusion was that we don't know and can't know.
That said, personally, I think they're both lying. Neither of their stories line up with evidence. I personally think they're actually part of rival gangs, and both are using cover stories to hide their true past and associations.
Funny story btw, its possible to get both rewards supposedly. First, side with Kematu and get his reward, then kill him. Wait a few days for his spell to wear off (literally), and then use a calm spell on Saddia. Since he's dead, she'll give you her reward as if you initially sided with her! Of course, she'll be forever hostile to you afterwards, so you'll have to kill her too. Illusion can be lots of fun if you know what you're doing with it.
Secondly why on earth would they send the Alik'r? They have Justicars that have complete free reign over the entirety of Skyrim, unrestricted access to wherever the hell they want, yet the Alik'r are banned from the cities.
Do you really think they would trust humans to do anything? They already have Justicars in Skyrim, they have zero reason to bring in humans from another country for this task.
My best guess at what's the truth is that Saadia is too insignificant in the greater picture for the writers to bother about her. Will probably not have any mentioning in the next Elder Scrolls.
That actually makes a lot of sense.
So either she is adopted, her daughter or Hulda is running a Whiterun Brothel.
Also, the Alik'r are already fishy. They got themselves kicked out of whiterun, with one being taken by the guards, and when you go to meet them you find them hanging out in a cave with bandits! And again, they claim Saadia was involved in the war with the Thalmor even though again she looks to be too young for that to be the case. There's also the fact that if you do hand her over to them, you'll find her urn in Whiterun's Hall of the Dead afterwards (though admittedly, that may be due to an oversight or glitch rather than intention). Either way, she doesn't get taken back to Hammerfell, they appear to just kill her, discreetly.
Obviously, neither of their stories make sense, so the only rational conclusion is that they're both hiding something. In fact, that's the only way to make the story make sense. All we know is there some Alik'r is hunting Saadia, and they both give a story that doesn't add up. I'd say you shouldn't side with either. Besides, you get the most out of the quest if you side with Kematu and then betray him like I suggested. Supposedly you can get 1200 gold that way, which is quite a lot for a quest where you just have to clear out a bandit camp. You normally only get about 100 for that at best (assuming you even get a reward from someone afterwards).
Both of their claims are iffy at best, and they Alik'r are I believe paying those Bandits to stay there. It's just that what she says to you first is a complete lie, the Thalmor would never send an enemy nation(even if not at open war), let alone Humans when it is something they could easily do themselves.
Her urn in Whiterun is probably an Oversight, in fact if you Kill Saadia after Kematu paralyses her he gets angry at you, I think you only can get 500 gold from that quest through both rewards, though maybe it's leveled gold.
You can get 500 gold from each of them if you decided to betray them both, for a total of 1000. They also carry some gold on them, along with a few valuable items (mainly on Kematu supposedly).
kematu gives his reasoning (a conclusion saadia comes to a little to easily) for trying to find and capture her while also pointing out that hammerfell is still opposing the dominion which is true.
Saadia is guilty of treason. if she had said she doesnt know why or said something different from what kematu says i might have considered it.