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So no, the Dragonborn is NOT a "good guy", she is immortal fury and will distilled and trapped into a thankfully mortal form.
The various quests are there for fun, not to be canon.
In Oblivion, it was initially suggested in magazine articles that you start the game as an accused horse thief, which is why you're in jail.
Mention is made of the Player's actions in Oblivion in Skyrim by Sheogorath (the Player from Oblivion, which means The Shivering Isles is canon).
I don't recall if the Player can achieve enough fame as Dragonborn, or through any other means, to get any other response from Vilkas than "I've never even heard of this person" when you join the Companions.
IIRC, there is an option to use your Dragonborn status to get into the College.
You can also use your Dragonborn status, or Faction titles from Dark Brotherhood or College Of Winterhold, to enter Shor's Hall.
One would think it's logical that the Player would be well-known across Skyrim for their public deeds. Orc strongholds are made aware of your Blood-Kin status, and Guards will address you with a hushed "Hail Sithis" after becoming Listener, but court wizards are not made aware of your title of Arch Mage.
As for the Player's background; it's never been about the Player, it's about Skyrim. Who you were and why you were on the cart is of no consequence. Good, evil, somewhere in between. It doesn't matter. What matters is what you do from that point.
You are free to make your own background story for YOUR character that does not apply to anyone else's character.
There are some questions that should have had some resolution, like "Why is the DB sending assassins after you?"
It's pretty much this. Every quest is canonically completed, and it's "rumored" to be that the Dragonborn/Hero of Kvatch/Nerevarine/Blade Agent/Forgotten Hero did all of them but it's left vague on purpose.
Daggerfall is the only one with that background, because in Arena you were... just a prisoner. It has nothing to do with the games being "dumbed down".
We may, considering how they handle canon outcomes for quests in TES games. Both sides of the Civil War won, Paarthurnax is alive and also dead, the Emperor was killed in Skyrim by the DB while at the same time the DB was destroyed, etc. It depends on how they set up the next game and how many years have passed (in universe, not IRL) between the two.
I doubt they will skip the 2nd Imperial-Dominion war honestly. It's mostly, for me, a question of it TES6 is immediately after Skyrim or if it's 10-20 years after.
If teaser even in slightest resembles future game. We might not be even in Tamriel in next game, rather Akavir or even Aldmeris.
Sun shines from the east on the teaser, wich means camera moves north alongside coastline.
If game happens in Tamriel it means we will be on eastern side of the continent.
Otherwise its eastern side of Akavir, Aldmeris or Pyandonea.
In teaser you can see a small/big town in the distance near the coast right next to water. There is no such town in Tamriel(maybe except Tear wich is in Black Marsh or [wich is already speculated]Leyawiin).
So there are 5 possible locations for next game.
1)Valenwood and part of Cyrodill
2)Black Marsh
3)north-east part of Akavir
4)north-east part of Aldmeri
5)Pyandonea
Though judging by the way how shattered coast line is in teaser. it looks most likely as part of Akavir.
Feel free to correct me if im wrong.