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To me, a truly polished ARPG is Bloodborne. Solid combat, but more importantly also great level design, fantastic atmosphere, godlike soundtrack et.c. Just polished overall. Nioh is amazing in some areas (combat/lootfest), then lacking in others.
I haven't really played anything this year that I'd consider worthy of GOTY. But then I haven't played any of the other games mentioned here yet, although I've heard plenty of praise for all of them. From what I've seen, Divinity: OS2 is a likely winner in my book, once I get around to playing it.
You've got competition such as NieR: Automata and Divinity Original Sin 2 - which I would say compete for the role (and potentially Horizon: Zero Dawn, but I haven't played it and can't say how good it is).
Then you've got the 'preferance' awards, which get Game of the Year just because lots of people like them, such as Middle Earth: Shadow of War, Assassin's Creed: Origins, The Legend of Zelda: BotW... possibly even Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus (but certainly not one I'd consider).
For sure Nioh is a great game, but it has some major flaws that detract from its overall value, and like above says, it lacks polish.
While there are a bunch of enemies, the game undeniably lacks variation considering its size - we see too much of the same thing. It boasts artificial difficulty often in place of strategic and intelligent difficulty (while surpassable, doesn't mean it's a good thing) -- admittedly, I don't find Nioh particularly hard - I struggled with some of the boss ganks on my first playthrough, but you learn to cheese them or 'git gud'.
The story isn't particularly engaging. The developers opted for walls of text and lore to force feed us the story of the Sengoku period (particularly the late 16th, early 17th century) of Japan - which is great in itself. It was quite educational and even drove me to do a little research on the characters - but the story given to us in the game itself is quite lacklustre, generic, and dull... while the gameplay is not.
Most of the side quests are silly nonsense if you read the dialogue boxes (walls of text) before and after... it really is. Some of it is just menial nonsense, and the rest are "oh, Yokai have popped up, kill them).
The game boasts some great level design, great enemies (if limited) and good bosses (though I find them to be fairly disappointing admittedly - they either lack difficulty altogether, or their only source of difficulty is one-shotting the player).
The characters, albeit based on real people, aren't all that interesting - there's very little divulgence into exploring them personally, and they're all just part of the war... including the protagonist himself that, beyond being a powerful samurai and hero of the day, has no personality beyond "I must get back Saoirse".
Once again, I direct you to the above comment from Folketale. Bloodborne was a game worthy of Game of the Year. It boasted a great combat system (much like Nioh boasts its own awesome combat), and amazing level design... but it also had a complex and engaging story and lore, lots of enemy variety, amazing music, amazing bosses and such exquisite detail put into every tiny little thing that made it a true masterpiece.
Nioh is a great ARPG, but not game of the year material I think.
A Hat in Time does.
I like it.