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Orlais can never be trusted and putting aside the tensions caused by last war was a mistake on Cailan's part, one of the reasons why Loghain enacted a scheme to take over Ferelden in first place.
So in summary, even if Loghain's original plan succeeded, the beacon was never lit and all believed GWs failed then he would lead Ferelden for a short while until Archdemon shows up. Then, even if the dragon was slain his soul would travel to another Darkspawn and Ferelden would fall to the horde. Loghain wouldn't succeed if he had his plan work completely.
She is a tricky one.
I often made that choice, because Alistair is a good man and would prove to be a good ruler - even if he wouldn't be the real king.
And yet, I would have loved to see Loghain to live. He is tactical genius and strong on the battle field, so it felt like a complete waste to let him go. I wouldn't leave Ferelden just for Anora's rule. She is... well, it would be wrong to say that she is a "daughter of his father", because at least Loghain had Ferelden's best interest in heart (if not in his brains), but Anora feels more compelled to keep her line on the throne.
Cailan was a glory seeking man-child, but I don't know that he is a dictator. He'd asked for reinforcements from Orlais but Loghain disagreed.
Loghain was suspicious about the Orlesians and was adamant that Ferelden could handle the darkspawn on their own.
As it is, the Orlesians never crossed the border so we don't know whether or not they had any ulterior motives. Since Loghain never followed through on the flanking attack, we don't know if they could have defeated the darkspawn forces at Ostagar.
What we do know is that even if they won at Ostagar, the Blight would have continued because the Archdemon was not defeated.
Loghain decided that treason and regicide along with massive casualties and an unchecked Blight was a worthy sacrifice to prevent a possible second Orlesian occupation. Obviously ambition played a role as well or else he would have just assassinated Cailan to prevent the Orlesian reinforcements instead of doing what he did.
Way off. Loggy is the evil glory seeker, the King was a good dude. Loghain essentially murdered a bunch of people for politics; like a terrorist, Putin-esque.
Loghain's started off as a rebel turned hero after victory in the independence war. I believe he still held grudge over Orlais, he never forgave them and developed paranoia that Empress could try to reoccupy Ferelden or that Orlesian Grey Wardens are Orlesian spies. I doubt he sought glory or power he already had, he simply hated Orlais and never trusted Grey Wardens. Though, I won't deny his actions are despicable and I let him die all the time, but nonetheless Loghain's motives are understandable.
Duncan knew that if knowledge of the joining ritual became public, there would be no more recruits, and he knew that the wardens were necessary to stop the blight. If Duncan hadn't killed Jory, he would've died anyway from Loghain's betrayal, along with all the other family men in that army.
Are you so sure of that? Grey Wardens have power to conscript anyone they want, lots of pickings in jails and impoverished streets of the cities. Their only purpose is to slay archdemon so the soul won't travel to another Darkspawn minion, and sensing the darkspawn presence, but a lesser Darkspawn like Hurlock or Genlock can be killed by average Fereldan. I think everyone has right to be mad that the ritual turns you into a ghoul.
I think you're a bit backwards there. Cailan died saving no one. In fact, all of his men were killed and the dark spawn threat remained. He didn't understand his own political situation and was hung up on adventure tales. His entire campaign was a net loss. Were his intentions good? Well, it depends on how you define good. I don't think parading off to war in search of adventure and becoming a legend without taking the time or effort to understand the actual situation is good. I think it's woefully ignorant and ultimately his fault and his own doing.
Loghain was a POS, but at least the men under his command lived. They are probably still alive right now, to this day, and--look--Ferelden was saved afterall. So Cailan died for no reason and got a lot of men killed because he was ignorant and inept.
It's also interesting to me that the player cannot refuse Duncan. As a wood elf, I tried--and he demanded I join and threatened to drag me off in order to make it happen. Jory was doomed the moment Duncan decided he wanted Jory. Jory was literally better off running from the dark spawn. And you don't know that "there would be no more recruits" if the joining ritual became public--it's just speculation. For all we know, telling everyone how to defeat the dark spawn could result in more people doing the ritual as a last resort and thus more "Grey Wardens" or the end to the Grey Wardens and a new army of dark-spawn-immune soldiers. Regardless, that's no justification to murder a man and leave his wife and child without a father. I mean, fkn, just let the dark spawn in if we're going to live like that. Can't get much worse than being murdered by a sanctimonious dude with his head up his own ass who tries to be Liam Neason.
I think the wood elf start is the best of them all because at least they understand the dangerous, duplicitous nature of the world they live in. Give me the forest and freedom rather than these hypocrites who are running this ♥♥♥♥ show.
Likewise he trusted that the blight was serious enough to be worth the risk of an Orlesian occupation - Loghain and others were the naive one's who thought it was the lesser risk; likely because they were comparing something they lived through to something they hadn't.
The stuff around the battles like the stories, part of him felt that way, but the other part is you need to be confident and exuberant in that situation, lest your armies morale waver before the battle.
I didn't say he succeeded, but he died trying. He didn't understand that he would be betrayed by one of his own heroes and father-in-law while fighting to stop a threat far greater than Orlais ever could be.
Loads of his men died in a pointless civil war when he tried to seize power and the banns refused him. Loads more died when the Blight reached Denerim itself because he sabotaged the effort to stop it at the Korcari Wilds. Ferelden was saved in spite of everything Loghain did, not thanks to him in any way. Cailan indeed died for no reason. Every Ferelden warden was present at the battle, and they might have won the day if they had the support they were promised.
Jory would've been doomed anyway if allowed to run. The darkspawn were all over the Wilds. Your party only escapes thanks to Flemeth's intervention. Jory's only hope would have been to stay and fight with the rest of the army, and Loghain's betrayal still would have gotten him killed then.
If the world knew about the Joining, the Chantry would never allow the Wardens to go on practicing blood magic, so there would indeed be no new recruits. The Wardens' justification has always been "anything to stop the Blight." That's why they're called Grey after all.