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I'm getting these numbers directly from the game files. Whether they're historically accurate or not bug CA for that.
Unless you're playing a mod that should not be possible, so pardon me if I think you are mistaken unless you show a screenshot.
Well, having done a Turkish campaign myself, chances are you won't be able to use gunpowerder units against the Mongols. Your Janissary Musketeers are very helpful against the Timurids, but unless the Mongols invaded through Russia instead of the Middle East I doubt they'll still be around by the time gunpowder becomes available. Worst case scenario there is a 100 turn gab between when the mongols arive and when you get gunpowder.
That said, in my opinion Turkish archers and horse archers are actually better than the Mongols', the only reason they are hard to defeat is that they start with +6 experience and many very high dread and command generals. If you can get rid of the generals though you certainly beat them even in a 1v1 field battle with Sipahis, Turkish Archers and Sipahi Lancers/Kapikulu. Also unlike the Timurids, the Mongols don't have much siege weaponry besides those rocket launchers, so lots of Sarecen Militia and Turkish archers provide a cheap way to inflict massive casualties on them in a siege battle.
Hmm, I apologize, its been a while since I've messed with the events file in game. According to the comments it appears that the numbers in that file are the number of YEARS the event occurs after the start date, not the number of turns as I thought.
Since 1 turn is 2 years, it appears to mean that you'll get the Mongols invasion warning between turn 64 and 72 (1208-1224) and Gunpowder between turns 105 and 110 (1290-1300). Perhaps that makes more sense.
I really haven't played that many Vanilla campaigns, just Spain, Venice and the Turks. Turks were my favorite but their starting position is extremely challenging if you're not a Total War veteran, due to Mongols and Timurids almost certainly attacking you first. Also you have to love missile units with them, their infantry is mediocre at best. Even the Janissary Heavy Infantry I found disappointing, though that may just be because I dislike most two handed weapon units.
1. Vanilla means the original game without any mods.
3. Its not easy, you need to be at war with them and sometimes even offer them money. Their territories count as yours for the victory limit though so if conquering a nation would take a long time, it can be worth trying to get.