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If you only have 2 troops in each settlement everyone will think you're easy pickings, even your allies.
Also...what is your reputation? Thats the most important, overlooked, aspect in this game.
I had a campaign with Spain, immaculate reputation, no one attacked me.
In the latest attempt, I've decided to ally everyone before someone attacks me and it's working so far. 20 turns in, 8 alliances and no one is doing anything suspicious because I guess they are afraid. Even Moors wanted alliance. I don't like this strategy because allying everyone is doomed to fail but I guess I'm forced to do it. Guess it also helps that dumb French can't backstab me because they still haven't taken Rennes 20 turns in and they tried it 3 time already.
Anyway, I'm about to take Ajaccio and Cagliari so I guess that's when problems will start with damn Sicily, they are the only ones refusing alliance.
BTW, how did your campaign went when no one attacked you?
It also makes little sense to ally those that are your immediate neighbours.
For your reputation to dissuade the AI from stupid decisions you'd want trustworthy or higher. That way, those that are above reliable won't do anything like declare war on you and those that are below mixed will, when beaten down through war, sign treaties with you.
It's useless to sign 8 alliances in 20 turns....Soon one of your allies will attack an other ally of yours and thus lower your reputation regardless of whether you pick the aggressor or the defender. Stick to 1-2 allies, preferably those that aren't near your immediate borders and expansion options and stick to trade treaties with the factions surrounding you.
That campaign was, in a way difficult. The lack of sacking cities ensured my economy, even 200 turns in was trash but all my alliances/treaties held without issue. I expanded through rebel regions early on (Bruges/Antwerp) and after a crusade on Poland I took Kiev/Crimea from rebels. Afterwards Muslim and Orthodox nations because they generally dislike catholic factions and thus are more keen to attack you.
Offcourse you do get in a fight with nations closeby, like Portugal/Moors but you can still wipe them out without adverse effects on your reputation, as long as you release and occupy their settlements. Had a war with France but signed peace with them that later became an alliance (they offered it) and Byzantines were actually rather large before they attacked me.
Even in wars you can abuse the crusade mechanic. It's just the way you approach the wars that determine how your reputation stands.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=904482512
All in all, lots of end turning without much to do due to not being attacked by many nations + lots of public order issues due to occupying settlements instead of sacking/exterminating. It's possible and doable. It's just takes a lot longer to get things done.
The higher the difficulty, the more bonuses the AI gets and this tends to make them more aggressive, since the bonuses result in the AI calculating it is stronger than the player in a given matchup.
If you lower the difficulty the AI will therefore tend to be less aggressive.
That said...The AI DOES act differently on very hard in comparison to easy. The AI gets more active when the difficulty is higher in both diplomacy and warfare. It also gets more reasonable on very hard difficutly, such as accepting peace treaties when there's no border between the two whereas on easy mode they're worse than a dog trying to climb a tree.
That said....It's not as if the AI has improved since Medieval 2. Which is kinda why paradox games are a bit more interesting for me atm. While that AI might not be great either, it's still better than TW's.
The best part was England and Scotland attacking me when I was #1 in all areas. I came to British Isles and what do I see - settlements from England and Scotland guarded by only few units each. So, why the hell would you provoke strongest faction in the world when you can't even conquer your pathetic backyard.
Also, if You're the one sallying out...Then why the f*ck do they need to come at you? You're the one attacking them. What do they care about the fact that you're being starved to death?
If you want them to come to you, you wait until they attack the settlement.
Also if plague demands you to completely disband your armies, you need to work on your economy.