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Basically, here's the simplified rundown. There's 52 cards in a deck. 4 cards worth 1/11, 4 cards worth 2, 4 cards worth 3, etc... until SIXTEEN cards worth TEN. If you have a 12 with two cards (Say a 7 and a 5) there's 49 other possible cards floating around (you can see ONE of hers, but not both, so you don't know her second card.) This means that out of 49 possible cards you could draw, 16 are an instant bust - and 12 is a very low number to be sitting at, the absolute lowest you can bust on the next draw, from! The "Dealer will always hit on 16 and Stand on 17" rule exists for a reason - and that reason is the mathematical likelihood of forcing the player to bust since the player needs to BEAT the dealer. By 16, only 20 of 52 total cards won't instantly lead to a bust - and there's probably not going to be all 20 of them left in the deck.
It's not even a matter of calculated risk vs reward, either; you HAVE to hit if you're below 18; you CAN'T win on a 17 unless the dealer busts. (Although I often just cut my losses at 17 because I'd rather just try to go for the draw than risk busting, at that point.)
I was at this for literal hours before I FINALLY won - and even when I did win, Halle was only one win away from blocking me, too.
... fortunately, although there's one more game after Blackjack, that one IS rigged in your favor simply due to the options the player is given that the AI opponent doesn't use. You can fold every second hand without penalty, and if you have a strong hand, you can double the wager and make it count as more wins. The AI opponent calls no matter how bad their hand. This means that, unlike with blackjack, you can actually do something besides just getting lucky.
@OP Sounds like bad luck and/or confirmation bias.
Yes, you're absolutely correct. Do consider, though, that the edge IS big enough for Casinos to have blackjack, and they're in the business to make money. The "Must hit on 16 and stand on 17" rule is not only mathematically aimed at forcing the challenger to bust, but also aimed at preventing the dealer from throwing hands, as well. Considering how much money a casino can make... yeah.
EDIT: For the record, I'm not claiming Blackjack is the big moneymaker, but they wouldn't ever have something they expect to LOSE money on, or all the savvy players would play that.
It's not implausible to take more than just a few retries, although hopefully most should reasonably win in less time than I did. The problem is that you need to win in a Best-Of-Seven format, and the truth of the matter is that when at a disadvantage, the handicapped side is better off taking their chances and going for less rounds, for less chances to mess up. Needing to win four out of seven at a disadvantage is not a fun gamble, and I'm not a fan of those odds.
I wholeheartedly admit, my luck is legendarily bad. In SRPGs with displayed hit rates, I've missed 13 95% chances in a row (in a game that shows the roll, no less, so it wasn't a problem with the RNG being skewed. I've missed more at 97% in a game that didn't show the roll, but it was possibly bugged and/or skewed.) I wouldn't expect many people to spend literally HOURS on this like I did, but I do still feel it's an unreasonable event to have as a REQUIREMENT for completion, since Star Door 14 requires you to have cleared every other door.
Though you are wrong about casino blackjack. You can beat the house in that game if they use the same deck of cards for multiple games (that is common practice) by counting which cards have been used already and adjusting bets accordingly. Casinos will usually toss out people who make use of this technique.
I don't recall ever having being forced to do ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ content like this to access story in an RPG, I was enjoying this game so much up till this point.