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so we shall wait and see if we get the full elevated terrain experience (and associated transportation and terraforming options) in Factorio 2 (not trying to rush them in any way lol)
and for now i am very excited to play with those elevated rails :-)
(and the more varied track curves - gonna be awesome :-))
yup - all those reasons make perfect sense :-)
Train tracks are cheap.
Belts, even undergrounds are not.
Try running 8 line belt for 50 chunks and you'll quickly understand what actually is cheaper
and more efficient option here.
But don't be sad. Even today steam trains are used. So for old fashioned Factorio users there is no reason to despair. And you get space trains back.
But ...but...ah trains go back empty. Belts don't.
as for the topic
I don't see how trains would become obsolete no matter how mega fast belts they add in ever. Good luck routing 50-100k+ belts for each distant mine (and to actually build them). Your UPS will die faster than ever. Unless ofc the belt lovers here plays with maxed out resources so there is no need to ever expand more than your starting screen. Which im sure at least one of you is doing (im looking at you who sends clowns to every one using trains).
After all the conditions to have the pair available, and if the cost don't matter, then it's possible that in a head-to-head comparison the new setup could be better than a train. And, unless the cost is super mega high, it might not be a factor anyway since the initial cost of setting up a train might be way less, trains do require a constant supply of fuel while the belts are free to run after the one-time cost of building them.
Where the difference lies is the same place it does IRL for most comparisons, A good 4K monitor beats a great 1080p monitor in nearly every test I've seen. And a 4K monitor is a complete waste of resources if you don't have a 4K-ready GPU, and same games or videos that are 4K and a computer with enough power to process those games or videos to send the data to the GPU. The key is the "special thing" might be great on its own, but it still has to be part of a full system.
The new belts and inserters have to work as part of the factory, not as a race with the train. Without some fancy, and easy to break, circuit network stuff, a system of belts to replace a system of trains is going to require much more space to use. One section of rail can support trains full of any ore from several mines, without having to worry about which ore it is. Just limiting the massive capacity to long-haul resources from outposts there are still 5 resources to carry; iron ore, copper ore, coal, stone, and crude oil. (I'm not counting uranium ore since it's not part of making science for a mega base and most mega bases switch to solar anyway.) Each of those will need their own belt, and for a growing mega base each one will require its own collection of belts. To run a 10 KSPM base would require 286 of the new belts always full with full stacks of resources (using barrels for the crude oil). That is a 572-tile wide "bus" coming into the main base. Using trains, in a typical configuration that can be done with 2 rails in each direction (in and out). The most common setup it 4 rails worth of space between rails, so that is a total width of 32 tiles, a mere 5.5% of the space needed to run belts. And none of that figures in the process of making the belts cross each other as they get routed from the mines/smelters to where they need to go in the base.
It gets worse if I decide to make a 20 KSPM base. Now I have to double the number of belts, literally double, coming into the base. I don't have to add a single rail to the base. Yes I will have to double the number of mines, including going further out in the map to find them, but It will not require adding a single width of incoming rail to the base. Without out knowing the extra ingredients, and costs, of the new science packs, and where/how they get produced and used, I cannot even estimate their impact, yet I know it can only make the comparison worse for the belt version.
Final answer: No, I don't think trains will become obsolete. Not even in the future mega-bases of Space Age.
Reason for trains not having quality was something to do with not being able to easily replace them like any other entitty
regardless, trains will never be obsolete - i don't care if belts move at 3 trillion kph and transport 8 billion items per second - trains are fun :-)
spaghetti would become the way to go, you'd only need 1 belt snaking through your factory.