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If you want to hear it from the horse's mouth, the references are in the "Game discount" pinned thread.
But be aware, it is a huge time sink, and if you like the game you should not be bothered of the 30€
I played that game a tiny bit of 1200h so far which would be a total spent of routhly 2.5 cent per hour of play time...
so as people have said, the demo is the best thing for you to use to decide if you think the game is going to be good enough for how much it costs
yes it is expensive when compared with a bunch of other games at their discount prices - but many other games only get as low as Factorio's price by discounting their price by 50% - and many other games are 50% of Factorio's price when on discount - and so the decision is if it will be similar value to 2 of those
i am currently playing Subnautica which i just picked up for half of Factorio's price - and i am addicted, and it is beautiful and great fun and i am having a great time with it - racking up 30 hours in a few days - and i will likely pick up the sequel in this or the next sale - which would bring the total price to that of Factorio
but i am not sure that i will get more than a few hundred hours out of them in total - which is still incredible value - and i am already feeling i got good value for money
but i have 2500 hours in Factorio (maybe 2000 playing, since i used to leave it on all day and just alt tab out to go make food lol) - and only a few games in my collection have gotten close to that amount of playtime
i did not pay the current price for Factorio, but it was still one of the few games i paid full price for, and was more than i paid for most games - but as soon as i played the demo i was hooked - and once i found out they did not do discounts it took me maybe a day to decide to buy it (i rushed home the next day from work to buy it, having been thinking about it all day lol)
but if you play the demo and don't feel it is worth the price - then you can always come back at a later time - and play some more - and decide - since the game is unlikely to increase in price again - and since they don't do discounts you won't be missing getting it cheaper
it is worth getting to the final level and having a proper play of that level (level 5) - since it is a big map and will give you a better idea of what the freeplay game is like (the game has no campaign, just a highly configurable freeplay on pseudo randomly generated maps that can scale up to almost infinite in size) - it also has a massive library of mods - some of which are pretty much total conversions
had you played the demo when you posted this thread? since you say you would buy it instantly if it was cheaper - and so if that is just on reputation and how it looks in the videos etc - then clearly the demo should be able to convince you one way or another for this price
since most games don't have demos i am generally unwilling to pay more than half of Factorio's price for anything that i can't try first - and that would need to be a game with an incredible reputation - such as Subnautica or the Outer Wilds that i bought recently for that much - or Oxygen Not Included that i got for less
but if Subnautica had a demo i would likely have bought it a while back and would have paid more - and would certainly have bought both games together the other day in the sale - instead of just the one, not wanting to risk that amount of money for a game i didn't know how much i would like
anyway - yes it is priced high - but by many people it is considered to be the finest automation base building game that exists - that grabbed them from the first time they used an inserter to move an item on to a belt, or got a coal power burner drill to feed itself so that it would mine until the patch was depleted
but yes - demo is the way forward - and questions to players if you are still unsure
also - since this is discount season - and there will be another sale next month - this may be the time to pick up some cheaper (yet great) games at discount prices - since Factoiro will be waiting for you at the same price in the calm between sales (e.g.the month between this one an the next, or the longer between the December sale and whatever follows)
and if you buy some games in this sale and stop playing them well before the next sale, then you will be in a good position to think about Factorio some more, and if it might keep you hooked longer
good luck with the decision :-)
Rather than "how cheap can I get it?", What I think is a superior measurement of worth is "How much am I paying per expected/actual hour of enjoyment?"
To make a few examples; A movie ticket, popcorn, and a drink to a 2 hour movie will cost you about $10~ for the ticket, $5 for the drink, and $5 for the popcorn (because concession prices are an absolute ripoff.); This puts movies in the ballpark of $10+ per hour of enjoyment, per person you take with you.
Pokemon Scarlet/Violet is around 30~ hours to beat the main game+extra content. With a price of $60, that's $2 per hour of enjoyment; Whether you'll play it more to just catch pokemon is subjective to the individual, but if you did, it'd gradually lower the amount spent per hour of enjoyment.
Factorio is $30, Flat; No sales to date, no real plans to have a sale afaik. With that said, It's already half the price of most games these days- Most cost $60, and Factorio is $30, Effectively a permanant 50% off sale.
I personally have 550~ hours played, with more about to come as I just reinstalled it for a new playthrough. That's $0.05~ spent per hour of enjoyment (for me.)
My point here is- Figure out how much you think you'll play the game at a minimum, and do some simple math. If you think you'll play for 100 hours, that's $0.30 per hour played. Then go look at the receipts of other games you've bought sale or not, see how much you paid for them and how many hours you played- Figure out what you think is a good price per hour minimum for you and buy games based on that.
TL;DR: Don't get me wrong, Sales are nice. But, You've been sitting on this game in your wishlist forever- If you genuinely think you'd enjoy the game, Letting it sit there rotting in your wishlist is just dumb.
Are people blind?
Me neither, and that is iirc a point that the Factorio team addresses in their post why they think sales are a psychological tactic to get people to buy games they don't really want right now, to create FOMO and a sense of urgency when there actually is none.
I also fall for this, I have about 100€ of games in my library that I haven't played yet, stuff like Red Dead Redemption 2 for 20 Euros - that is a superb deal and I almost bought it just because it is a good and long game for cheap, but I have at least 5 other long high quality games in my library that I bought for the same reason which haven't touched yet.
I know that this the way for many people on steam and sales are often based around this human behaviour: Trick people into spending money on products they often don't want/need right now by creating time-limited good deals. I have no hard data for this (obviously) but I am sure that a significant percentage of people would have spend less money on steam if there were no sales ever and they would have had to buy every game full price, but then only ever bought games they really crave to play.
Of course not every sale falls under this category and for some people it is really awesome to get an expensive game for less money, but don't forget that in the end sales are a tool to get more money from costumers, not less. In that sense I respect the Factorio team for their decision not to take part in the "it is on sale, quickly buy it!" culture and instead have a demo so people can gauge for themselves if the game is worth its price for them. Especially since it is likely that they would generate more money with a sale from all the FOMO-buyers that only ever buy on a sale.