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Chapter 2: Started to doubt, but didn't want to believe it.
Chapter 3: Didn't figure it out till we were supposed too.
Chapter 4: With how it was set up I suspected the truth. Halfway through the trial I 100% knew.
chapter 5: No comment (I knew)
Chapter 6: I figured it out.
So looking back... yeah I figured or had an inkling about alot of them before I was supposed too.
2. Didn't figure it out. Mondo's slip-up didn't raise any red flags.
3. Figured it out before the trial. Partly. I didn't know Hifumi was in on it, but Celestia leading us on a rigamarole was too obvious a setup.
4. Didn't figure it out. I was sure Byakuya had poisoned Sakura's drink.
5. Didn't figure it out. Toko running off by herself to get the pickaxe on Byakuya's command was awfully suspicious...
6. Somebody spoiled me.
A perfectly plausible turn of events in chapter 2 would be Mondo finds out Chihiro's secret, decides to leave because it's totally weird, and then Byakuya later came down and saw Chihiro alone and killed him. Wouldn't explain how Byakuya could've destroyed the electronic ID, though I don't see how that part was necessary for the murder. I guess Mondo did it to hide Chihiro's gender.
I also thought Byakuya would've known that only Sakura and Hina would take the protein drink out of the people still alive and he could've set up the poisoned bottle way before the events happen since he really shouldn't even care who died.
I think only 1 and 3 are so blatant that there's no way to get it wrong. Anything else, there's plenty of doubt based on the arguments presented. I think it's pretty funny that Byakuya, who everyone knows wouldn't hesitate to kill anybody, somehow was never suspected in chapter 4 and 5 by anybody.
Sayaka probably thought she was more likely to succeed at murdering a guy because of her pop idol charms.
Sayaka couldn't pick Chihiro; she thought Chihiro was a girl.
Sayaka wouldn't pick Makoto; she genuinely liked him. She had no problems framing him but to be fair, when she tried to murder, she didn't actually know what the consequences for a class trial where. She likely thought that she would get to leave and afterwards Makoto would be free to go as she would have been revealed as the killer, and at that point it wouldn't matter. Furthermore, she couldn't pick him because her entire plan involved framing him through the room swap. If she had used it to kill him, it would have been more suspicious particularly after Hina and Sakura spotted her in the kitchen (although Asahina really was a spanner in the works for Sayaka).
Sayaka couldn't pick Byakuya. Besides being likely to be immediately suspicious, it's unlikely that he would have cared to show up anyway.
Sayaka couldn't pick Mondo because he was the strongest guy and stood absolutely no chance of overpowering him.
Sayaka couldn't pick Kiyotaka; she needed to perform the murder at night and she couldn't risk that he would be too faithful to the rules.
This leaves Hifumi, Yasuhiro, and Leon.
Of the three, she actually DID have a couple of reasons to pick Leon. While any of the three would have been likely to show up, Leon specifically states in his introduction that he wants to drop baseball and go into Music. I also believe that he irks her somehow when talking about entertainers in the manga and that fuels that decision.
She's going to look far more suspicious when Makoto points out that he swapped room with Sayaka. It'd literally have to be the punishment for murder is a spanking such that Makoto would just keep quiet about it and eat the punishment instead. She'd also need Makoto to leave her room next morning without anyone seeing him, even though he'd certainly not be purposely trying to avoid this as he has no idea what's going on (in the game we knew Makoto left pretty much at the time he normally woke up and didn't even think about how weird it'd look if he came out of Sayaka's room). Otherwise this immediately proves that the room was swapped. Although Sayaka couldn't have possibly known ahead of time, but apparently in the world of DR people are totally willing to listen to completely outlandish claims and debate over them, like Byakuya's "I didn't kill Chihiro, I only rearranged the body for the lolz'. Given how little time they have spent together, there's no way for the rest of the students to unconditionally side with her, and if they start talking about Makoto's theory that the room was swapped, someone likely would've eventually come to the conclusion that it'd be awfully hard for a completely average guy like Makoto to lure Leon into his room in the middle of night if he was indeed the murderer.
If she was rational, she should've called off the attack. If she was desperate, it was just so hard for her to successfully kill Leon that she'd have to resort to killing someone she might actually succeed in killing. Had Sayaka survived to chapter 3, she can pick up the powder of instant KO that Celeste found in the room of impossible killer weapons. If she survived until chapter 4 (I think that's when the Chem Lab opens) she can create her own poison needle of instant death. But without such weapons, unless she's completely delusional, there's no reason to think she could've overpowerd any guy besides Makoto.
I think it can be assumed that Sayaka being a workaholic really hates people who got there with talent alone and no work. However, this works against her since we can tell from the picture that she was disgusted enough that she just attacked Leon right away when he came. The safest thing to do from her point of view is to just sleep with whoever she's trying to kill and then stab them after they're asleep (and she could've done that easily with Makoto, who already asked her to stay in his room!), but it's clear she dislikes Leon so much that this isn't something she'd consider. This makes her already difficult task even harder.
I won't put spoiler tags here for 2 reasons. 1. it about the first case and 2 it on the second page (view 50).
Ok so Sayaka could kill Makoto but it extremely unlikely as she will be caught almost instantly. or will have extreme pressure during the Class Trial. Next the real reason she failed to kill Leon was Luck on Makoto part she kinda doomed herself in 2 ways. Way 1 she hesitated and 2 she tell Makoto to get the sword. but if those two factor were remove Leon would have died Makoto would have been framed at the start and the end result would be.
GAME OVER
Sayaka was found guilty.
Time for the punishment!
-I was spoiled about Genocide Jill so I assumed the second culprit was her. Didn't actually work it out until like a single minute before Makoto. I did notice Mondo calling Chihiro a dude (also spoiled on that, possibly before I even heard the title of the game) but I use it gender-neutrally all the time, so I didn't realise, just thought it was sightly odd, maybe a mistake in the writing. also partially because I didn't want to believe-
-I never trusted the culprit of the third, but I was unsure whether to believe them. I thought it was super suspicious how Celeste was apparently beaten up but not killed, and took her being the only one to see Robo Justice as fact first but then thought a bit and realised it was indeed only her that saw it and how that was PRETTY STRANGE. I thought Hifumi faked his death when the the door only unlockable from the inside opened, also the blood packets in the fridge (thrown off a bit by them not being a truth bullet though). Confirmed immediately when Celeste was so dismissive of anything that contradicted her "theories" during the trial, for the 'Queen of Liars' she didn't lie all that well... I should mention I knew Celeste would eventually be a culprit and that the tea thing was 'foreshadowing for chapter 3' due to TV Tropes but I didn't immediately get that the latter meant that's the chapter she dies in, Toko stuck around after her big secret was revealed.
-I haven't played the fourth yet, just finished the investigation, but I suspect Hina sadly, since it wasn't Toko, Sakura's hands didn't have any blood so she didn't write the message, I know Byakuya's in the sequel and Kyoko's still around for the final trial, and Hiro is acting way too obvious for it to actually be him.
Case 2: Did not get it. Did not expect Byakuya being a douche and manipulating the crime scene so I suspected Byakuya.
Case 3: Figured it out. Surprisingly the easiest case once you figure out the trick, so yes I got it early on.
Case 4: Figured it out. If you played Umineko, locked rooms mean nothing, simply deconstructing the locked room yielded the one single truth, easy case.
Case 5: Did not get it at all. Complete L. I actually suspected Kyoko gg.
Case 6: Figured out the mastermind's identity before the investigation. Somehow the moment I read that only 16 people ever stepped foot into the school, I knew immediately that someone faked his/her death to operate behind the scenes. Classic murder mystery trope. And noticing that one of those who died early on, and died irrationally (weirdest reason for death that isn't either a murder or execution). Basically knew the mastermind before the investigation.
Case 2: Had no idea, and couldn't believe that Chihiro had been targeted. Wasn't ready for the twist, or Byakuya switching up the crime scene, although I noticed right away there was a swap.
Case 3: Was confused AF. I vaguely suspected Celeste for being at the center of everything, but I didn't consider Hifumi being an accomplice until during the trial.
Case 4: Had no idea. Suspected Monokuma was framing one of us until the final realization. Really believed it was Hina for a little bit.
Case 5: This was interesting.
Case 6: Despite the tip off from Case 5, it didn't even occur to me until the moment the game asked you to pick who the mastermind was that it dawned on me about her fanart. Well, well, well...
Case 2 - Suspected a strong person to have done it b/c of the murder weapon
Case 3 - Figured out who and how they did it from the start..
Incredibly annoying that you can't call suspects out early on lol.
Case 4 - 1st thought upon seeing the scene was that it was a Suicide
Case 5 - Suspected Byakuya lol
Case 6 - Suspected Junko
the rest, not so much
Case 2: Honestly thought this was too easy at first and saw the first twist a mile away, thought that was the end of it then BANG it kept going. A nice surprise, made me feel dumb though lol.
Case 3: I figured out how it happened easy enough but got it wrong as to who was the person behind it.
Case 4: Figured this one out easy enough.
Case 5/6: To be honest this was probably the easiest one to work out. I blame spoilers more than anything.
Case 2 and 3 were definitely the hardest to work out and I was pleasantly surprised by the plot twists.