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And moneywise we've a few cases (only crops and nothing else to be sold for easier comparison):
1) parsnips only:
First harvest (FH): 40 parsnips -> 13 * 35 * 1.01 + 27 * 35 * 1.03 = 1432,9g (harvested on 2 seperate days to make use of the level up and get 1 extra on the next harvest, doesn't make sense to harvest as soon as possible, since you can't get 3 harvests in anyway)
SH: 71 parsnips -> 8 * 35 * 1.03 + 49 * 35 * 1.05 + 14 * 35 * 1.07 + 12,9 = 2626,35g for the egg festival
2) parsnips into potato:
FH: 40 parsnips = 1432,9g (selling like in #1 grants you an additional parsnip for the second harvest, which you can use to sell 1 more potato under lvl 2 harvest bonuses)
SH: 28 potatoes + 1 parsnip -> 1 * 35 * 1.03 + 4 * 1,25 * 80 * 1.03 + 24 * 1,25 * 80 * 1.05 + 12,9 = 2980,95g for the egg festival
3) potatoes only:
FH: 15 parsnips + 10 potatoes -> 13 * 35 * 1.01 + 2 * 35 * 1.03 + 10 * 1.25 * 1.03 = 1561,65g (though selling the 2 parsnips on the second day might only give you 1,4g extra on paper, but being lucky with some gold stuff harvests can grant you an additional potato every few runs)
SH: 31 potatoes -> 9 * 1,25 * 80 * 1.03 + 22 * 1,25 * 80 * 1.05 + 10,25 = 3248,65g
So going for potatoes early is always the better choice. Obviously you're more dependant on luck due to the 25% double drop chance of potatoes, but you need to be very unlucky to fail to get less than the parsnips only attempt and you've also the option to get even more out of it. The double drop makes potatoes nearly twice as profitable as parsnips, which is just too much in any calculation to keep up
And obviously, adding additional money from other sources like fishing or mining will only make the gap bigger and bigger. The only time, where parsnips are actually worth more is the 7th and 8th of spring, since that are the days where you can plant additional parsnips, but potatoes are already too late.
And on top of that, due to the higher cost of potats seeds, you're growing way less stuff, freeing up more energy for other things, most notably fishing and you'll have less consumption of forageables, thus some additional stuff you might be able to sell on the 12th.
And obviously, that whole calculation changes depending on how much money you can make out of fishing by eating parsnips (feel free to calculate, how much more value that adds on parsnips), but if you're not interested in fishing that much (at least i'm not), then going for potatoes is definitely better
(And i think, i've already calculated that a few years ago for someone who said, that parsnips only is the most profitable and i said that before calculating it back then as well^^)
I don't understand what some of your numbers are, though.
Just explain the first line of numbers, please, and all the rest will make sense.
I got 13 parsnips (harvested, allowing for 2 to crows), times 35 gold per parsnip, minimum, times 1.01 for what? I really need things labelled to understand what each number means.
Also, did any of these calculations take into account the relative likelihood of starred produce due to fertilizer or level ups? Not a critique, just a question.
In scenario 3, when you mention second potato harvest, on what day is that harvest supposed to happen? Because part of my own priority would be to get the money in time to roll it over into strawberries, so it must be sold before then for that.
this is exactly why fish and salad is the best. it factors in the opportunity cost of acquiring the food.
it doesn't really matter how good the food is, it's much more important that you don't have to go out of your way to get it.
on top of that they are actually available for the majority of the week. parsnips etc are available for the second half of the week.
Just as a data point: In the Tiny Farm run we've been doing, I'm in early Summer, and I've seen ONE Iridium quality fish so far (and it was a Red Mullet, a fairly easy fish). (Additionally maybe 2, 3 Gold fish total).
For me, food in the first two weeks of Spring is Spring Onions.
And those have the cost of time traveling to the Southern part of Cindersap forest, as well as the RNG factor of not knowing what you're going to see when you get there. Maybe there are 15 today ... maybe there are 3, maybe there are none.
After Salmonberry season starts, I use those (although in the Tiny Farm run I need to hold back 50 for the Forager's bundle). You got over 300. My Foraging skill wasn't as high as yours, so ... I got about 85ish. Less the 50 I need to hold back.
(Blackberries are easy, by Autumn, my Foraging skill is high enough that I get at least double the number of Salmonberries, but I don't always take Gatherer, in a 25% run, I frequently take Forester instead (and then probably Lumberjack). Wild Plums just aren't ever something I get in sufficient quantity to fill out the Foragers bundle (which requires 20, so it's either hold back Salmonberries from Spring, or wait until the following Spring to complete the bundle).
And that means you lose some Parsnips to Crows, right?
How many (on average) do the Crows eat?
The idea of using Parsnips for food is actually pretty good, I may try that next time I start a run.
Salad is only going to be viable in a full profit run. Salad is going to be priced out of availability even in a 50% run (let alone a 25% run).
The 1.01 is the amount of money after taking silver and gold quality crops into account, as seen here, the other numbers are a littlebit lower:
https://stardewvalleywiki.com/Farming#Complete_Formula
The wiki also tells us, how many parsnips we need to reach specific levels a littlebit below.
And the .25 for the potatoes is the 25% chance of dropping doubles.
Also one thing i've forgotten about in the calculation is, that secondary drops (not just potatoes, but the berries as well) are always of regular quality, so that reduces the income a littlebit as well.
Another mistake of mine^^ I've forgotten about not being able to convert the potatoes over to the second half, so it's more a cross strategy:
FH:
15 Parsnips -> 13 * 35 * 1.01 + 2 * 35 * 1.03 = 531,65
10 potatoes -> 10 * 80 * 1.03 + 10 * 90 * 0.25 = 1024
SH:
52 Parsnips -> 9 * 35 * 1.03 + 43 * 35 * 1.05 = 1904,25
10 Potatoes -> 10 * 80 * 1.05 + 10 * 80 * 0.25 = 1040
whole harvest: 2959.9g
As for the second harvest of strategy 2, the corrects calculation is:
1 * 35 * 1.03 + 4 * 80 * 1.03 + 4 * 80 * 0.25 + 24 * 80 * 1.05 + 24 * 80 * 0.25 + 12,9 = 2954,55g (it's not that much early on, especially since the early levels only raise the chances not really that much)
That said:
Parsnips only: 2626,35g
Parsnip into potatoes: 2954,55g
Crossing: 2959.9g
With fertilizer:
Parsnips only: 2777,55g
Parsnip into potatoes: 3087,5
Crossing: 3106,4
So technically, crossing is the best strategy, however parsnip into potatoes definitely is the most effective in terms of crows, since you won't run the risk of loosing a potato plant against them
Also i personally don't think, that going out of your way to fertilize everything is worth it. Do as much as you can, but i grinding wood to get everything fertilized will cost you so much energy for just 1 additional strawberry seed in any of the strategies. It's just too weak on the lower farming levels.
It's also cheaper than making it yourself, as a bottle of vinegar is required to make one and each bottle of vinegar costs 200 gold at Pierre's General Store, with standard leeks selling for 60 gold and dandelions selling for 40 gold. Isn't Stardew's economy weird?
For example, I've come to the conclusion that the most efficient use of 250 gold at the start of the game is to buy a Trout Soup from Willy immediately after picking up the fishing rod on day 2.
Unless you already have a reason to be on the Forest map, I strongly doubt that green onions are worth the risk (the time it takes to check that you aren't doing something else).
btw: I'm assuming the underlying question is about what food to attempt to get, not what is most efficient that you already have.
This most recent run at 25% I planted over a hundred day-one parsnips. I lost two to crows. When I plant just 25 parsnips in a full-profit run I also seem to lose two to crows. Maybe two crows are just assigned to assault the player if they can.
I like the idea that if a crow is going to eat my crops, he's better off nabbing one of my hundred parsnips rather than one of my expensive crops. Obviously after that first harvest I can make a scarecrow and everything after that is protected.
I used to limit my first planting to 15 crops total, to avoid the crows. That includes wild seeds and rice shoots too. I thought the time saved would benefit profits from fishing or something. But in practice I found it just slowed me down. The hundred crops only took a couple of hours in the morning, which I think of as normal for farm chores. The extra xp meant I levelled up faster. The extra food resource meant I could do lots and lots more work, which also helped me level up forage skill and gather wood resources. If I had sold the parsnips I would have been way ahead on money. And overall, I think the investment rolled over and snowballed into great later investments and harvests. So planting the biggest day one crop that I can seems like a good idea to me.
I don't consider it cheating to check the onion situation and restart the day if the trek down there isn't worth it. But many other people wouldn't want to do that, and I totally get it.
Running from your farm to cinderforest onion spawns take like 2 hours minimum.
If you have that time extra for fishing that will surely wield you extra fish to eat wich wil give you more energy than the few spring onions you pick even if its not iridium chub but golden or silver.
For Nakos, a simple restart on salmonberry days wil give you a much higher output.
Start the day, run to village to quickly check board and trashcan, log out and start over.
If you do this all four days 300+ salmonberries is easy to get.
As for planting the first two weeks, all the time you need to plant/water/harvest can be time to get more fish both for selling and eating. The first 15 parsnips are enough to get you farming 1 for the scarecrow recipe. You don't even have to water them every day and can pray to Yoba for rain while your fishing. Who knows he might listen! As long you can harvest the parsnips on the second friday it's all good.
90 Strawberries are more than enough to get you lvl 6 farming for eventual sprinklers for summer, altho I probebly would not bother for such a tiny farmarea and focus on upgrading the watercan.
So fishing until I drop at 2 am in the first two weeks and focus on farming the second half of spring is how I would do altho the 25% profitmargin wil make it much harder.
Thinking now the price for bait might be to high compared to a normal run? I never did 25% so I don't know.
Mmmmm I might set this up and try myself.........
For me, the cost of even buying the fiberglass rod was too high for the first couple weeks of the 25% run. And bait was impossible to buy, so I relied on bait that I had accumulated from treasure chests, or what I could gather from bugs in the mine. Since I didn't even go into the mine for the first two weeks, that tells you something about my timeline.
I would absolutely love for you to join us on the Tiny Farm thread if you'd like to post results of your 25% run, even if you don't work on a tiny farm, since the 25% restriction is a very important part of our farms.
Of course, I'd understand if you'd rather just post your own thread. But either way I love seeing people's results when they try any challenge restrictions.
It isn't necessarily a few spring onions, it could be none, it could be 15 (or more). 15 (or more) is going to provide a lot of stamina, probably more than the fish, but what it won't do is give fishing xp. I don't think it's worth the risk, but you could always luck out and get lots.
Simple answer is bait is still worth getting.
Bait does this (according to the wiki): decreases the time taken for fish to bite (reduces the delay before a nibble by 50%) and lowers chance of getting trash items.
A conservative assumption is that this will increase the number of fish you catch by 25%. If you wait to sell your fish until you get FIsher, then anything better than gold star Carp will yield a profit (again, this is very conservative, the increase in number of fish caught could be higher than 25% and the decreased chance to catch trash can only be profitable).
Also, catching more fish means more xp, which means leveling up faster and all the associated benefits.
The reasoning is similar for the Trout Soup claim I made earlier. The increased cast range you get a Fishing level 1 means you can reach the highest level fishing zone immediately (less trash, higher quality fish, higher chance of more valuable fish, better treasure).
Uh... Not really sure what that has to do with the quantity of Salmonberries.
On Salmonberry days I water my crops and then go cover as much ground as I can picking every berry I see. Total quantity is impacted by skill (and RNG of which berries spawn and which I see). We're talking Spring of the first year here. Snowy is better at getting her skill up than I am, she pretty consistently hits at least level 4 (for the +1 to berries) by then, I often do not.
Hmm... that sounds better than what I've been doing.
And the idea of having a reliable food source for pushing down in the Mines is pretty compelling too.
I'll have to try that next time I start a run.
Parsnip seeds cost 20 gold each. An unstarred parsnip sells for 35 gold, and gives you 25 energy. I'm not sure how to calculate that. 25 is higher than 1 to 1 against the 20 gold you spent for the seed, but then you also had to water it four days. 25 is lower than the 35 you could have sold it for, but it seems like a pretty high percentage.)
Uh, I think you went far past the first week of gameplay with the whole iridium chubs.....