How to Play Calico Spin MASSIVE SPOILERS here

[sxl2]

This whole damn post is a GIANT SPOILER. STOP NOW IF YOU WANT TO FIND THIS OUT ON YOUR OWN.






Ok

Calico Spin is not very random. In fact it's very structured.

There have been threads on reddit and the "official" Stardew forums where people have figured out pieces of what I've assembled below, so I'm not the first to discover some of these pieces, but I haven't seen anyone put this whole picture together yet. So I'm giving it a try.

I found the following patterns playing calico spin on "star-luck days" (day on which the fortune teller says "The spirits are very happy today! They will do their best to shower everyone with good fortune." and you see a star above her head.) I haven't yet tried to see if or how this changes or whether it's valid on days with other kinds of luck. I don't know if luck even figures in. But in case it does, that's when I gambled.

I've found this pattern to be consistent from 4 different plays on a star-luck day where I ran through about 1000-1100 spins. I never hit 1000x or 2500x so I am not sure where they fit in. There may also be longer meta-patterns which would take longer continuous data gathering (say, 2000 consecutive pulls) to figure out.

So:

There are standard repeatable chains of wins which occur spaced every other spin, and between them are gaps of 14 spins

These are the 3 chain types I've found so far:

A: 3x - 5x - 2x - 2x - 2x
B: 5x - 5x - 2x - 2x
C: 5x - 2x - 2x - 2x

Between each of these chains is a gap of 14 consecutive losses. On the 15th spin several different things can occur. You can predict to a degree what will occur based on the sequence of the chains listed here. I will explain how.

There are classes of higher-tier wins

30x, 80x and 120x are in the first tier.
200x and 500x are in the second tier (there may be higher wins in this tier too, but so far I have not encountered them).

I will explain how to track this starting immediately after a tiered win (at least 30x) because it's easier to explain that way. Once you get the pattern you can start to pick up where you are in it by checking what kind of win you get after a 14-loss gap and picking up from there.

After each tiered win, chain C will follow after one loss, and then a gap of 14....

So, if you just hit 30x for example, the next spin will be a loss, then every other spin will be win in the pattern 5x - 2x - 2x - 2x

The run-up to a first tier win, following any tiered win, goes like this:

After the tiered win, chain C. then, with dashes representing the gaps of 14:

- A - B - 1st-tier win (30x, 80x, or 120x)

The run-up to a second tier win is much more involved, and goes like this:

After the tiered win, chain C (again, it's always after a tiered win) then, with dashes indicating the gaps:

- A - C - A - A - C - A - A - 2nd-tier Win (200x, 500x, maybe others?)

So far I have also found a meta-pattern where every 2nd-tier win is followed by 3 1st-tier wins, and then another 2nd tier win.

EDIT: Since the 1.07 update I'm getting somewhat different patterns. There are still patterns, but there's more variation (the ones I describe are not the only ones). Not sure whether that's due to 1.07 or just that I got weirdly lucky getting the exact same pattern 4 times on 4 different days - but anyway, these are not the only possible patterns - and yet, for any given day at the casino, they seem to be consistent within that day....I haven't had time to pursue this much since the OP...It still seems the case that there are tier-1 and tier-2 wins and tier-1 wins have 2 chains and then the win....where tier-2 winds have much longer chains...

It seems like the game drops you into the middle of things, not necessarily at the start of any of these patterns - you have to track for a bit to see where you are. If you bet 10 until you encounter and run through your first chain, then you can reliably choose when to bet 100. Since the longest gap is 15 (and 15 x 10 = 150) and the cheapset win is 2x (and 2 x 100 = 200) you can reliably make money in any session with no net loss. You just need about 260 Qi coins to start, to weather the worst-case scenario.

I would be interested to know whether this holds exactly true for other players, or whether there are variations (I don't know what's universal and what's per-instance, and whether the luck rating of the day factors in anywhere) Let me know what you find....

[Alien]

I was playing just now (fully updated game but not sure what version). THIS WORKS! There are some times where the final 14th spin becomes the winner, but thats ok because just continue the pattern (so if the predicted 14th loss was a win, then the next spin is a loss, followed by a win from the above pattern). The patterns are correct. You da man, op. Thanks for making this info available more easily.

[AkaBaka]

I have noticed some other patterns on days when "luck is not on you side".

The chains are a bit different,
A: 3x-5x-2x-2x
B: 3x-2x-2x
C: 5x-2x-2x

The gaps are either 16 or 18 and after a first tier win there is this kind of sequence:
first tier win-C gap B gap C and then another fist tier win

I haven´t tested nearly as much as you but at least enough to have acquired information

[Engineer_Cat]

Following the same exact idea.. these were my results.
Screenshot/Conclusion[i.imgur.com]