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Well, she actually gave me a magma geode... but it had coal in it.
I also discovered independently that entering the town map at different times indeed changes the gift you receive for the Secret Santa, however in my attempts I only received two different outcomes (in my case, emerald and poppyseed muffin), and the only things that I changed was arriving into town before or after 12:00. Any time before 12:00 always produced an emerald and any time after 12:00 always produced a muffin, so it doesn't look like the gift changes every 10 minutes, in my experience it changed at 12:00 between only two possible outcomes. Talking to Emily does not affect the outcome. Changing the gift you give does not affect the outcome.
edit: I tried all times from 1:00 to 2:00 (1:00, 1:10, 1:20 etc.) and all possible times from 9:00 to 10:30. All the times from the first set always gave the poppyseed muffin, and all the times from the second gave emerald. Also 11:50 gave an emerald and 12:10 gave a muffin. It looks to me like the game only checks if the time is <12:00, =12:00 or >12:00. That at least gives you three chances for the Tea Set per year.
I got Caroline as my gift-giver as well, so I decided to try the 1:20 time slot first. Unfortunately I didn't get the tea set. So I decided to try all the time slots by myself. And here is what I got:
I got Nautilus Shell from 9:00 to 9:50 for 6 times. Then I got Emerald at 10:00 for once. After that, I got Pink Cake from 10:10 to 12:00 for 12 times (didn't check 11:30 and 11:50). Then I got 10 Deluxe Speed-Gro at 12:10 and Poppyseed Muffin at 12:20. And then I got Jade from 12:30 to 1:20 for 6 times (didn't check 12:40 and 1:10). At the end I got Purple Mushroom at 1:30, Beer at 1:40 and Ruby at 1:50. At 2:00 the festival ends.
I didn't check 4 out of the 30 time slots, but I believe it still shows some pattern.
To me it's like, there were 3 items (Nautilus shell, pink cake and jade) that was given as gift many times in a roll, and the times were always the multiple of 6. Between the first item and the second item, one new item popped up once. Between the second and the third item, two new items popped up once. After the third item, three new items popped up once.
But like, it's just so different from the observations above mentioned by other people. So I think the best way is still just to check every time slot by yourself, which is tedious and it doesn't even guarantee that you will get the tea set this time...
The next year was Pierre, who I had at max affection. No matter how I reloaded, it was 10 deluxe speed gro every single time. Reloading availed nothing.
So...I begin to think my attempts to help people find the tea set are just adding to the confusion. Maybe you can only get it once per save file now? The time I got two was some years ago before all these awesome updates. For definitive understanding of how to get the tea set, you probably have ask someone who understands game code. My trial and error has always eventually gotten me a tea set, but it is a rather tedious method. Good luck to all the completionists everywhere. Turn the game music off, turn your own favorite on, ready your notepad and pen, and muster up your patience. The tea set can be yours. Life in Stardew Valley is just not the same without it cozying up your farm.