Stardew Fair - Don't Bet Green!

[Snowy Sprout]

Green used to have a 75% chance of coming up on the betting wheel. Just now I played and got more than 50% orange. I think the update must have rebalanced the wheel to make it truly random.

This pisses me off a lot. I hate gambling. The only way to be sure to get your 2000 tokens for the stardrop now seems to be by playing games, of which fishing is the best, and i'm GOOD at fishing and barely got 200 tokens per play, for which I had to pay 50 gold per attempt. This is a totally crap "rebalance" and I hope it gets changed back.

[I Kinda Fail]

I'm pretty sure that's not how the wheel works? I think it's more like, if it lands on orange twice, it's guaranteed to not land on orange a third time, whereas green can theoretically land on green like 10 in a row? I do think green is more likely, but that's just how probability works.

[Snowy Sprout]

Update:

I did the Fair in a solo game, and I will admit that the rng there felt totally normal. I spun the wheel 50 times and tracked the outcomes, and it all seemed absolutely as usual.

But the issue I had happened on a multiplayer game, and it happened to both me and my farmhand. I won't be totally convinced there isn't a glitch until I do the same experiment in multiplayer.

[ehyder]

Probabilities only give you expected outcomes. On any given run (or any small samples of runs) expected outcomes do not equal actual outcomes. If you really want to test this for MP you need to play a whole lot more Fairs.

[SashaMkai]

I played solo just recently and I was doing the wheel like usual green green green orange. Well I had 7 greens in a row and FINALLY got 1 orange. Went back to green and got enough to buy the stardrop and all the other stuff. Totally freaked me out though not getting any orange for the longest time.

[KellyR]

Yeah... Unless you spin at least 100 times, you can't actually judge the statistical probability. It's absolutely possible to get 4 orange in a row even with a 75% chance of green, so if you're only spinning 10 times or less, you could have just been unlucky.

(And even at 100 spins, it's unlikely you'll get exactly 75 green and 25 orange).

[nasojjr]

The wheel was definitely changed, patch notes or not. I've played enough games and done the wheel enough times and since the patch...I'm garanteed to lose now regardless of the color or bet that I make. I never had a problem expanding my 1000 tokens to get the stardrop, now, I lose everything, everytime. I've reloaded the day even like 6 times now, and I still lose everything.

[Snowy Sprout]

I hate to say it at this point, but... I don't know. I've played the wheel in multiplayer since then, and had perfectly normal results.

But I don't disbelieve your experience. So I'm wondering if some type of glitch may be happening irregularly?

[Lityk]

I played recently in a multiplayer game, i had started out with 1 token -from the muscle game- and i earned all the tokens to buy everything in the shop, just from betting on green. It really seems like bad rng is at fault here, as i had almost no issues. Just keep at it, it's not a perfect system, just make sure you don't bet too much at a time.

[ehyder]

@Snowy Sprout: you might appreciate this. Just got to the Stardew Fair in MP game. Orange, orange, orange, orange. For both us. Took us nearly 20-30 minutes to finally get enough tokens to buy the Stardrop.

[Nulien]

I've had very bad luck with that minigame since the update too. It used to take me no time getting to 2000 from the 50 that Lewis gives for 4th place (I'm too lazy to actually put stuff in my display) by betting half my tokens on green every time, but the last 2 times I've done it, on 2 separate saves, it's been much worse... was down to 2 tokens just now after hitting multiple oranges in a row.

[Nulien]

I think it's just more affected by daily luck now. I just tried it again putting my luck that day to max with CJB cheats, and it went as well as it used to for me.

Unfortunately, I don't recall what my daily luck on the previous attempts was like...