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The frequency is influenced by your luck on that day, but even on a bad luck day, Green is supposed to be more frequent than Orange (at least according to my understanding).
You watch the fortune teller channel on the TV. The wiki doesn't say anything about luck affecting the outcome of the spinning wheel.
http://stardewvalleywiki.com/Stardew_Valley_Fair#Attractions
http://stardewvalleywiki.com/Luck