Probability of Escaping the Hook with Perks

[y u heff to be mad]

I've calculated the true probability of escaping the hook in 3 situations using a simulation with NumPy.

TLDR:
Maxing Luck using Vigo's Jar of Salty Lips + Slippery Hook + Up The Ante = 67.2%.
Using Slippery Hook + Up The Ante = 60.5%.
Using no luck add-ons or perks: 7.86%[/b]

NERD MATH ♥♥♥♥ INCOMING:
Probability Assumptions:
Base: 4%
Vigo's Jar of Salty Lips: 3%
Slippery Hook = 4%
Up the Ante = 9%
Total = 20%

After 1 million trials, the probability of escaping with 6 attempts with everything is 67.2%. We exclude the cases where you escape more than once as that's not what we want.

Without the perk auras, and you just try to escape normally without any luck add-ons, you have a total of 3 tries, each with a probability of 4%. Therefore your chances of escaping dwindle down to 7.86%.

Anyways I hoped this helped understand probabilities more. Let me know if you would like me to run other simulations. Thanks!

[Slippin' Jimmy]

Are you sure luck percentage is additive?

[76561199482099467]

the base is not 4% it was bugged when wesker came out and has not been fixed. the true base value is closer to 12%

[Exotics]

you could just skip all this and use deliverance

[Evilnapkin]

Цитата допису OneLastDream:

you could just skip all this and use deliverance

Does nothing if the killer goes for you first. I spent the last week and a bit trying to get 50 selfunhooks for the achievement with slippery meat and deliverance, let me tell you getting a selfunhook consistently is a lot harder than it seems.

[Dinonoms]

According to the wiki the max selfunhook is 56%

If everyone uses the best group luck offering and if you use slippery meat or something

[Dog Appreciator]

its much higher if everyone brings a luck offering in a swf. this has happened in tournaments before lol

[Null Winter]

Цитата допису Dragon Belly Transport System:

According to the wiki the max selfunhook is 56%

If everyone uses the best group luck offering and if you use slippery meat or something

I believe the original poster was calculating the probability based on using all unhook attempts, not just a single attempt.

[Tea4Two]

Цитата допису Esther:

Are you sure luck percentage is additive?

This is a good question.

[Dinonoms]

Цитата допису Tea4Two:

Цитата допису Esther:

Are you sure luck percentage is additive?

This is a good question.

According to the official wiki under the luck trivia section it says so

https://deadbydaylight.fandom.com/wiki/Luck

[y u heff to be mad]

Цитата допису Esther:

Are you sure luck percentage is additive?

Yeah, I got it from the DBD wiki. I think the person above linked it

[y u heff to be mad]

Цитата допису Dragon Belly Transport System:

According to the wiki the max selfunhook is 56%

If everyone uses the best group luck offering and if you use slippery meat or something

This probability is the chance of escaping per attempt. The probability I stated is the total probability that you escape after exhausting all your attempts.

EDIT: Null Winter's post above is correct

[Glimmer]

Цитата допису Older Variety:

the base is not 4% it was bugged when wesker came out and has not been fixed. the true base value is closer to 12%

Are you sure about that? I'm not seeing a lot of self-unhooks, just a lot of people forcing themselves into second stage.

[y u heff to be mad]

Цитата допису Hex: Little Big Rat™:

its much higher if everyone brings a luck offering in a swf. this has happened in tournaments before lol

Yeah, if everyone brings a luck offering, I'm sure the probability would exceed 70%.

EDIT: I just ran the program again with the same parameters, but this time with 4x Vigo's Jar of Salty Lips (I'm assuming a 4 man SWF can stack these).

The total probability of escaping the first hook is 81.95%!!! Pretty insane lol

Here are the stats I ran it with in case you're interested:
6 tries
Base = 4%
Slippery Hook = 4%
Up the Ante = 9%
Vigo's Jar of Salty Lips Offering (4 man SWF) = 4*3% = 12%
Total = 29% per attempt

[Fezix93]

Each attempt is an independent roll. The same is true when doing probability for gambling, and the odds don't change just because you made an attempt. Also, because multiple survivors can have perks (Up the Ante) that grants Luck bonus to the other survivors, the maximum luck chance that can be given is 56% for each roll. There is a 56% chance in this situation regardless if you have 1 chance left, or 6. Each roll is its own event.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[Dinonoms]

Цитата допису Poseidon's Right Nut:

Цитата допису Dragon Belly Transport System:

According to the wiki the max selfunhook is 56%

If everyone uses the best group luck offering and if you use slippery meat or something

This probability is the chance of escaping per attempt. The probability I stated is the total probability that you escape after exhausting all your attempts.

EDIT: Null Winter's post above is correct

I am not quiet sure what your are on about...
If the wiki is right then there is a maximum of 56% to selfunhook per attempt... So technically with Slippery Meat's additional attempts... Every fourth attempt is a selfunhook