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The values on the campaign map are also scouted estimates and not exact values. Locals might join in aswell.
Hit me up in multiplayer if you want to fight a human commander. I always enjoy a good battle :)
The flags have a certain minimum size, to avoid them being too difficult to select and drag, particularly on touch screens, and a certain maximum size to allow them to fit in the provinces. So although they do scale with the points values of the armies (not the number of men), they do not scale in direct proportion. If the difference in strength is not massive, although the stronger army's flag will be larger, the flags may look similar in size to a casual glance. If you mouse over the two armies on the map it will give you the relative number of points (with a margin of error for Fog of War on the enemy army).
I would suggest looking at the relative points rather than the size of the flags or the numbers of men. This will give you the best indication of the odds. (Especially as the number of men shown immediately prior to a battle currently show only field army units and not any added garrison/militia units - this will be corrected in the next update. The points values shown do already include added garrison/miltia units.).
The best indication is therefore relative points values shown when you mouse over the armies.
Depending on the difficulty level you have selected, the enemy may usually somewhat outnumber you, but unless you attack an enemy province at a disadvantage or your scouting estimates are extremely wrong, the relative size of the armies should be roughly equivalent to the proportions for a skirmish played at that difficulty level. (AI 5% extra points on Colonel level, 18% extra points on Sergeant-Major-General level, 34% extra points on Lieutenant-General level). If the odds favour you more, the AI will retreat (unless its scouting estimates are wrong). Likewise your army will retreat if the enemy attacks with higher odds than the Difficulty setting merits (% advantage as above). As you pointed out yourself in an earlier post, this sort of marching and counter-marching was normal in the period,
If you invade a province however, your army does not get the option to retreat without a battle unless the enemy adopt a defensive position. So be careful not to attack a province where the defending field army significantly outnumbers yours in points.
I think the key to this is the word "seems". In fact they don't, when quality of units is taken into account. Different units have different values, high quality units are worth a lot more than poorer quality units, and damaged units are worth less than full strength ones. The odds should therefore be calculated in terms of points, which take these differences into account, not in terms of men or units.
Even on the highest difficulty setting the AI won't usually outnumber you (in points, not men or units) by more than 50%. At Colonel level the figure is 5%, Sergeant Major General level 18% and Lieutenant General level 34%. On Captain level the odds (in points) will normally actually be in your favour.
The feeling of being more heavily outnumbered than above may arise from their units being in a very bad state after previous defeats, or including a lot of raw units, or a higher proportion of infantry, in which case they might outnumber you 2:1 in units or men because the odds as described above are calculated on points, taking into account the current state of the units, rather than on the number of units or men. The _feeling_ of being outnumbered will be maximised if you tend to pick as many high quality (expensive) units as possible when raising your armies, because the AI tends not to do this.
Also, the above odds do not apply if _you_ attack _them_: If they attack you, your army will retreat if the estimated odds (in points not men) are poorer than the difficulty setting indicates, as above. However, if you attack them, your army will not retreat if the odds are poor - it is up to you not to attack at poor odds after checking the tooltip over the enemy army. Look at the points, rather than the number of men. Sometimes the scouting reports in the tooltip will be inaccurate, but c'est la vie, leave a margin to account for this.
To sum up: Unless _you_ attack _them_ at poor odds, the points ratio will _never_ be as much as 2:1 against you, except possibly on the highest difficulty level on the rare occasion that your scouting esitmate has underestimated the enemy by the greatest possible margin.
At Captain level the average points odds against you will be 5% enemy advantage, which we deem just enough so that battles against the AI are not a complete walkover. The worst points odds you could face (unless you attack at poor odds) is a 40% enemy advantage on the rare occasion that your scouting estimate underestimates the enemy by the greatest possible margin. Conversely, if the enemy scouting estimates are wrong by the same margin, you could have more than 20% advantage in points.
Actually, I don't believe this is quite correct in a quick bit of math i just did involving a Swedish 1631-34 force (mine) and a Polish 1627-31(?) force at the literal first turn of the game. Filling my forces as much as possible, leaving maybe 9 points unaccounted for due to an odd 1 or 5 points in each raised force of troops per province, I had forces totaling at 1760 points while the enemy had a force of 1884 points. Now, this is Captain because I'm a learning player trying to win. Thing is, I have only 93.4% of the point amount he has, which while not necessarily huge...means that on average he outnumbers me every battle BEFORE local reinforcements (adding easily 3-5 more units on the battle map that aren't counted prior to engagement) are considered.
I'm not here to bust your chops. But it's almost always been this level of point inequality across every single map I've started up with various factions. Somehow, AI tends to get...roughly 25% greater numbers in EVERY ENGAGEMENT i fight on his lands.
To say the least, it's extremely annoying, and I don't just play swedes. And to be honest, I dislike systems that pad the AI with numbers so that, regardless of actual tactics, numerical spam is always a reliable choice for the AI if all else fails. The only time I ever started coming out ahead was with a Spanish 1631-34 force against a German State force of...1492?
Makes a guy feel very very weak as a player. It's why I don't like Civilization at higher difficulties, given that the AI just gets larger numbers of free units.
This would represent a 7% overall points advantage to the AI if the enemy points reported to you in the tooltips were accurate. However, those scouting reports are subject to a Fog of War adjustment, so these figures are entirely consistent with the enemy having a 5% advantage in points. (Bear with me for the rest of the explanation).
The way that Captain level works is that the relative starting points are in fact the same as Colonel level. However, Captain level makes an adjustment in your favour during the actual battles by upping your units' troop quality by 25% of a quality level and lowering the enemy units' troop quality by 25% of a quality level. This adjustment is NOT taken into account in the reported points on the army tooltip, but does in fact make a significant difference in your favour. So, in reality, despite the reported points totals on the tooltips, you would have had a modest points advantage overall, once the quality tweak for Captain level is taken into account.
So really, the AI was not getting any advantage against you.
That isn't the way local reinforcements work. An army will only get any local reinforcements if they are needed to make their army up to the odds listed above for the difficulty level, and they will only get the number of points required to do so (or the maximum, whichever is less).
This is designed to avoid the very issue you are concerned about. The logic would be that these units are only mobilised from garrison in case of dire emergency.
So (at Colonel or Captain level) if the AI side already have a 5% advantage with their field army, they won't get any local reinforcements at all. If they have less than a 5% advantage, they will only get enough points worth of local troops to make up the difference. And then, on Captain level, the quality of your units will be tweaked upwards and theirs tweaked downwards, tipping the overall relative points in _your_ favour.
On ** difficulty the AI will try to have a _points_ advantage of 5%. This isn't anything like enough to account for what you are seeing. However, the Italian troops are generally of lower quality than the French, which means that they will get more troops for their points, especially if the French have spent more points on artillery.
If you are playing a campaign, then if you choose your armies yourself rather than let the game do it for you automatically, you can avoid spending too many points on expensive units (but you want some Swiss at least).