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As the main strategy it doesn't work. Shouldn't work by design. We had a pretty big conversation with developers about it during the period of early access. At the end, by design Jail is punishment, not a way to the victory.
Or you are simply paying -1 (or even -2 bribe) for every jail level. This would lessen another problem at the same time, which is that acessing the astral plain location is stupid expensive. You have to pay at least 7x your bribe (6 fields and thus at least one stop where you gotta pay double + a red skull afterwards). Ironcially this is the place, where you need to go in order to lower your malice - but the more malice you have the less you can possibly afford to go there, making it a completely underutilized location in all the MP games I've seen so far (for everyone who isn't governor or wants to dump a game-ending card).
Recently I had an unbelievable game where I actually ended up with 0 income and something absurd like 46 bribe due to extreme malice and a serious bad luck string. The bribes due to accumulating malice were just killing me and I couldn't seem to recover at all. But if you end up in jail and level up, mechanics like I described above could act as a valid strategy to counter the downward spiral of no income and high bribes without lowering your malice. It even makes sense - bribing some violent jail kingpin too much isn't something all thugs might be comfortable with after all ;)
And Astral is very popular location among best players, it just should be used in a different way than other locations. Don't go there just because you have a card. Go there when you're ready.
As for the malice... people are often saying that A Lucky Potion is a bad and useless card. But in fact it's one of the cards that can help you to control your malice, for free.
Honestly, I don't think Jail needs any serious changes of how it works. Maybe just a few balance changes for particular events.
Is there any benefit in using 'NEUTRAL'?
Unless I'm missing something 'NEUTRAL' just means you let the game randomly choose for you whether you'll behave GOOD or BAD.
I do use it rarely when I can't make up my mind in time. But to be fair, I don't really see the point to use NEUTRAL, ever. Wich makes it quite pointless to be there at all.
As I understand it, leveling up in jail gives you access to better jail events and nothing apart from that. But if you realistically can't possibly win a game by squatting in prison, then it seems the conclusion is that you should try to get out asap pretty much all the time - unless higher jail levels actually give you something that is useful outside of jail as well. Then it becomes a more interesting decision about identifying right moment to leave instead. (Though one might argue gaining resources is already enough).
Neutral has the highest chance to randomly get an instant pardon compared to the others. Check the help section in-game about prison.
OMG is this true? 350+ games, and only now I find out? LOL
Most of the time it's better to leave Jail as fast as possible but at higher levels you have benefits for being IN Jail, because then you can send misfortunes to other players or take their money.
So you make decision not about when to leave Jail but instead you should decide as soon as possible if you need Jail experience at all or not and act accordingly there.
...but based on which factors does an experienced player decide to select "bad"? If in general it is better to get out asap, then during your first and second time visiting the jail the optimal play is probably to go neutral or good in order to leave, so where does your jail experience come from, unless you just happen to be imprisoned a lot?
Otherwise I just look for what is best for me in a particular situation and from which side of Jail I want to get out.
But then again, I'm not the best player :) Just good, I think.
when you have a Dump card you can play, choosing "bad" gives you a chance to escape through the Dump and play it. same if you have, say, Fast & Fair, so Dump > Marketplace > wherever you want to go.
Is there some comprehensive info on a wiki or in a forum or whatever that details exactly how the event probabilites evolve with the jail level?
Also there are some more specific BAD events that can be worth choosing BAD over the other two.