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Discussions Rules and Guidelines
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How that randomness is established, be it so many turns after its removal or whether on a turn to turn basis, I have no clue.
In effect it's a bonus guard, be assured it will turn up, eventually, hopefully, but don't ever rely on it turning up, especially when you need it.
Well, that's the way I play it - oh, it's YOU, what's the news from the other parts of Tamriel?
That is just impossible. There is _something_ that governs when he comes back.
Yes there is 'something'. But it's not necessarily a percentage chance, just randomness.
EDIT: For those interested in actually reading substance. Understand there are many ways of creating a random event or number within computer coding, many different formulae, many different algorithms, and very few are determined by percentages. Percentages are just one easy if not lazy way of doing it. It could be that AF reappears on how many cards are played (haven't noticed this though) or how much life is lost (again, not noticed) or mana cost of all cards played since removal etc etc etc. They are all feasible non-percentage chances though. And many more non-percentage methods do exist.
Ok, so this information has never been told, or dug out of the game's code? No one so far has understood the mechanism behind his coming back.
Then in those cases, it's not 'random'. It's a specific thing that happened.
Not necessarily - each of these could be determined randomly each time AF disappears back into the deck.
What I would imagine to be the most likely system if this is true is that AF gets placed into the deck at a numbered place and is drawn when that place is reached during regular play.
Where it is placed I would imagine is decided randomly each time it returns to the deck, similarly to how Therana's 3 0-cost cards, and all the other returning cards, are placed unless specifically noted as placed at the bottom etc.
In short, there is no percentage chance of it returning because where it is placed it is purely random each time.
However, we'll never know for certain until someone cracks the code wide open and lets us all in, or Sparkypants breaks silence on the matter.
EDIT: See my next post - it could be that returning cards reset the remaining deck like an initial mulligan. I'd think this is the most likely system for all returning cards.
Unlikely - see my post above.
It is also highly unlikely because that would mean all cards are drawn on a similar basis, which is clearly not the case.
After a mulligan, for example, the order of cards is reset/shuffled. It could be that AF returning similarly reorders the remaining deck, as would Therana's added cards etc.
It still doesn't point to a 'percentage' chance of anything being drawn in any case.
However, there is a changing 'probability' of whether any specific card is drawn next dependant upon the number of them remaining in the deck, the number of all cards remaining etc. In that sense there would be a percentage-defined probability but what that is changes as each successive card is drawn. And that's not what the OP meant by the flat percentage chance built into the actual system he intimated.
The system governing these returning cards is an intriguing question though, and you were right to raise it for people to consider and discuss. I for one have often wondered just how Therana's cards and Shadowfax are returned seeing how I use them the most.
Just a shame we'll never know until a hacker cracks the game's code or Sparkypants explains the method, neither of which are remotely on the horizon at present.
Thanks for the push to start considering it more fully; I've never been motivated enough to do so before.
On further thought, I have assumed AF returns to the deck and this is probably an error.
I'm unable to check but could someone who plays AF see if it disappears into the discard pile. If it doesn't appear there then, and only then, will it return into the deck.
If it does go directly into the discard pile it is more than likely there is a simple percentage chance of it returning from there each turn; say 5% given it doesn't happen all that often. If it were 50% as someone suggested it would happen far more often.