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Usually this kind of scenario calls for desperate times. I would try and ally with Liu Biao quickly and then pull out 1k of troops to lure cao cao to pull a crap ton of troops to aggro to it, then have a specialized 1 unit of 6-7k troops and take over 1 small city.
Or you can relocate to Yong Chang. Ceasefire with Liu Biao and head west to Ba Shu where Liu Zhang is at. Have Liu Biao be your scape goat and take over Ba Shu quickly before Ma Teng comes raining down south. Once you get Ba Shu, try and take Shi Xie, you really gotta snowball early or else Cao Cao will give no quarter. Shi Xie will not move his 3 cities and will rack up allot of money and food, that will nurture your nation.
But you know, Im just throwing ideas out there
Making a beeline for the enemy main camp is a mistake if you are trying to win on attrition. You want to wipe out the entire units so that the city will have to recruit more troops. Otherwise once the troops return to their home city they will be attacking you again within weeks. This is especially bad if you find yourself desperately finishing off camps while enemies are getting freebie hits on your unit's backs.
Shu has a lot of extremely powerful militant officers that have buffs that only apply to themselves. The only problem with their force is that all of these officers are competing for strategy resources and the Infantry focus makes it difficult to apply hit and run strategies while your strategy gauge is recharging.
I suspect the main determining factors would be:
1) How good you are at using hit and run with Zhao Yun (and other Cavalry generals?).
Part of what makes Lu Bu dangerous is that he can disengage while your strategy meter is recharging. Zhao Yun should be able to do the same to a lesser extent. You may want to turn Zhang Fei and Guan Yu into Cavalry for this reason alone, as their strategies are more offensively powerful than Zhao Yun's.
Addendum: You will want at least 2 Cavalry units for pincer opportunities. If Zhang Fei and Guan Yu are doing harrassment as well you will want them close to each other before activating (one of, cost) their strategies for the bond bonus.
2) Using Zhuge Liang's strategy in mass battles for complete one-sided wipe outs. Zhuge Liang's strategy is simply a ridiculously good wide AOE buff. Is there any reason to EVER use Liu Bei's (7 COST) "Cry of Justice" with Zhuge Liang around? Geez.
With good tactics you should be able to do complete wipes with minimal losses on your side. Especially if you use tactics well for buffs and traps.
Also note, Characters with the skill "Strategy" will always block strike. Cao Cao is a great example. Even if Zhuge Liang's ability gives strike to all nearby units, they wont do any strikes on him. Even if you pincer Cao Cao, you do minimum damage because of his skill.
Another thing is if you're not playing Historically with the events, then use Xu Shu's Charge Command. When you're not able to strike, you'll need to do allot of flat damage, and Charge Command is your best bet.
You only really need one general/advisor with one of those skills (preferably Lockdown or Crafty Plot) as they share resources anyway and you're not likely going to be able to fire two off at the same time anyway. Only reason you'll need more than one is if you're defending two chokepoints. All three are really hard to recruit from Cao Cao, though, so your best bet will be a custom officer with the same ability.
Cao Cao is amazingly tough but in the "Three Visits" scenario he should be mercifully far away from your force. One of the advantages of fighting a large force is that the AI tends to become more prone to deploying weak units that you can pick-off to weaken cities and global morale.
Debuffs are indeed amazing. Especially as they essentially serve a an army wide buff against afflicted units.
However Zhuge Liang's "Brilliant Maneuver" skill boosts morale, preserves morale, AND removes special effects atop the awesome ATK/DEF. If you are wary of the AI being tricky with debuffs both Cavalry hit and run and using a delayed "Brilliant Maneuver" should counter them nicely.
Others have mentioned strategy skills that lets units avoid strikes but there are other skills, like defense that increases defense when a unit is on a camp or castle wall, endurance raises morale when a unit is beaten, heroism grants strikes on the same unit class and arouse which increase attack when a unit falls below a certain troop count, all these skills can turn the tide of a battle.
Also keep in mind that Cao Cao has 25 cites under his control in Three Visits 207 A.D and doesn’t have to worry about being caught off guard by an attack from the rear and some of the cites have heavy troops while Liu Bei has one castle and is stuck with light, so expect enemy reinforcements in large numbers since they have little to fear.
It is also better to save your resources for taking out Jing before turning north, if events are on then wait until Liu Biao is gone and start conquering.
If you play as ruler as Liu Bei, then just staying as you are will work in half in half. Just know that if you start invading into Liu Zhang, you break the events triggering and all the AI will go haywire doing their own thing unlimiting themselves. It is okay to take Jing Province because theres no events that need those cities.