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You can activate the custom event at any moment even after you started a scenario.
Anyway, I don't think that the Battle of Guandu is really that crippling for Yuan Shao (especially if you're aiding him), I've seen him taking the central plains even after losing Wen Chou and Yan Liang thanks to the sheer number of troops he can deploy (especially if you start from an earlier scenario so he has also time to train them while uniting the north).
I've reloaded to just before Guandu, and although I couldn't save Yan Liang and Wen Chou, getting rid of Xu You seems to have prevented the Wuchao incident and made things a bit more balanced. With Zhang He, Gao Lan and Tian Feng, we've actually invaded the region south of the river and taken Jibei, and Puyang isn't going to hold out much longer. Yuan Shu is still surviving because Cao Cao's attention is on us a bit earlier. Amazing how a small detail can make such a big difference to things, and I wonder how scary we'd be if Yan Liang and Wen Chou were still around. I'll try the event thing and see if I can get Guan Yu to defect to Yuan Shao or someone else (although that might break the formation of Liu Bei's new army in Ru Nan).
Yuan Shao AI always kill Zhang Yan force before event could happen in my games.
Yuan Shao has allied with Sun Quan while Cao Cao has allied with Liu Bei (who somehow ended up in Qiao and Ru Nan with his own force - I could have sworn that he was still working for Cao Cao during Lu Bu's death event). Liu Bei just fell to Sun Quan, who has now hired all three Peach Blossom brothers under his red banner, and we're going to crush Cao Cao once and for all before the inevitable big showdown. It's now vital to rush ahead and take the Liang area since Sun Quan is likely to crush Liu Biao and take Jing. It's also vital to be the one who takes Cao Cao's last city and captures the bulk of his great officers... good times! :) I'm not sure if any events will ever fire again from now on, but they did their job to set up the current situation. Thanks for all the help and advice, guys!
If you have PUK you can actually launch a coalition on Cao Cao using C. servant alliance, If you allied with Wu/ Liu Biao then launch the coalition, the chance of them being in the coalition is higher. Though I think by now you may have used other method to clear it.
Thanks for the advice. I actually restarted the scenario (well, I started a new one from 190 rather than 195) and completed it, but I will want to revisit that 195 scenario someday (or maybe even the 200 scenario). I will definitely heed your advice, since for some reason I always tend to play Yuan Shao when he's around. I have no idea why I've always liked that faction - Yuan Shao was not exactly a good leader, but maybe because he has many officers who are really good, but just short of being the best in the realm. If I start the Guandu campaign I'm not sure if I'll have time to save Yan Liang and Wen Chou or not, so in the event that they're either gone or doomed I'll have to work on using alliances.