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That being said, with ELO the point isn't that 1 game is supposed to determine how good or bad of a player you are. Think less like bowling, and more like poker. In poker there are technically skill levels, and there are indeed professional level players. But, I'd say if we put the world champion of poker, against a, mid level poker player, the mid level player would still win at least 10-25% of the games. You won't turn every losing game into a win, and yes quite a bit is going to be dictated by factors entirely outside of your control. but over a few hundred games, better players, will win more than worse players. You can't turn every losing game into a win, but you can turn SOME of them into wins, and over time all players should get roughly the same amount of losing games, and better players could stand out, by turning a larger percentage of them than players less skilled than they are.