veterans please dont alert the first night

[jason2005]

i think we should put a end to "always alert n1" that people say. its just not a good idea. think about it for a moment. theres going to be around 5 visiting townies on the first night and 2-3 visiting bad guys (mafia, neutral killing, sometimes a witch). you also have a low chance of being attacked since theres 15 townies alive. you risk killing townies a lot more AND to make things worse the townies will probably have your name in there will and you are exposed.

just something for you to think about. its a bad idea to alert n1 and yeah sometimes its annoying to die and then some person says "always alert n1!" but trust me its better to wait a few nights

[Lucifer ★✬]

as i vet i allways alert night 1 and 2. it works 9 times out of 10. in allany its even better, lol

[i got ea play]

No thanks, I killed sk on first night once.....then 3 townies on the second

[Lucifer ★✬]

Originally posted by .--. . -. .. ... /:

No thanks, I killed sk on first night once.....then 3 townies on the second

lol. remminds me when i killed 2 townys day 1 and then like 5 people night 2. think it was 2 maf, a sk and a arso

[jason2005]

its just not a good idea statistically if you think about it

[Lucifer ★✬]

Originally posted by jason05:

its just not a good idea statistically if you think about it

"statistically" it works allmost every time i do it. i have killed way more evils then i have townys

most its been is like 4 townys and 5 evils, so it worked. sure i have seen vets kill 4-5 towns in 1 alert, but thats mostly caz they fell for the bait


*note this is from a allany player

[The Maned Wolf]

Ok, we aren't talking about all/any here, that's different, we're talking about the scumbags who run around with this mentality in normal and ranked games. Let's talk statistics here

Out of all the times I've seen a vet alerting N1 (which probably amounts to somewhere between 30 and 40 times), I have only seen them getting kills by bait about eight times, the rest of the time, they gave no warning, just silently went on alert, only once have they killed an evil role, the rest of the time, they have always killed town roles. 9 times out of 10, the role or roles they kill are sheriffs, investigators and transporters, although they also sometimes kill doctors and bodyguards. 3 times out of over 600 games I have seen a vet killed Night 1.

As you can see, statistically, you are more likely to kill way more towns than you kill evil roles and the towns that are killed on such nights are normally important roles that could mean the difference between winning or losing for a town. Overall, if you alert N1, then as a vet you are being pretty selfish and just leads to you being revealed way too early.

[jason2005]

Originally posted by Odahviing:

Ok, we aren't talking about all/any here, that's different, we're talking about the scumbags who run around with this mentality in normal and ranked games. Let's talk statistics here

Out of all the times I've seen a vet alerting N1 (which probably amounts to somewhere between 30 and 40 times), I have only seen them getting kills by bait about eight times, the rest of the time, they gave no warning, just silently went on alert, only once have they killed an evil role, the rest of the time, they have always killed town roles. 9 times out of 10, the role or roles they kill are sheriffs, investigators and transporters, although they also sometimes kill doctors and bodyguards. 3 times out of over 600 games I have seen a vet killed Night 1.

As you can see, statistically, you are more likely to kill way more towns than you kill evil roles and the towns that are killed on such nights are normally important roles that could mean the difference between winning or losing for a town. Overall, if you alert N1, then as a vet you are being pretty selfish and just leads to you being revealed way too early.

yeah sorry i was talking about ranked and ranked practice thanks for clearing that up. and thanks for your post. +rep to you.

[Thundercracker]

i also am any/all and always alert.

for one, bait makes it obvious. for two, a proven townie is always more useful than an unproven.

[Donathan Cheadledge]

I'm gonna try and use actual numbers instead of anecdotes here, somebody tell me if I ♥♥♥♥ something up.

If you're on all any it has a lot of chances to actually be the best play, on any other mode I've rarely seen it work well at all.

If you're on classic, for example, you've got 2 maf that could actually visit (one of gf and mafioso won't show), the sk and the town. Taking into account the jester, exe, jailor, and the fact you can't visit yourself, you overall have 10 people that might potentially visit you. 3 out of the 10 are bad. So you've got a 30% chance of shooting somebody bad. That would leave you with a 70% chance of shooting somebody not bad. Which is terrible odds.

On ranked it's gonna be variable, you might have a 3 man maf, you might have a 4 man maf. Assuming the any role is a maf, you then have 8 townies. Given one is jailor, you've got 7 out of 13 chance to shoot a townie maximum (neutral benign won't visit so 13), assuming all town and neuroles are ones that can visit. The minimum chance of shooting a townie would be if you ended up with 3 mediums (2 from town support + random town), and 2 spies. You'd be the town killing. In that sort of scenario you'd only have a one in 13 chance of shooting a townie, but if you did hit a townie it would be either the doctor or the BG, otherwise known as the only townie potentially worth anything in this weird hypothetical statistical anomaly where town is blatantly ♥♥♥♥♥♥ anyway.

If the any is a town, that should be 3 maf 9 town, which would leave you 8/13 chance to shoot a townie if all are roles that can visit, 2/13 chance to kill one of the mafia, a 1/13 chance to kill neutral killing (0 out of 13 if it's a ww cause no full moon n1), and a 1/13 chance of shooting a witch if you have a witch and not exe/jester.

This is all assuming no baiting because factoring that in is just impossible. Any time I've seen bait it never works, except when I name myself Serial Killer some games and the real serial killer beelines for me night one, but each time that's happened to me I've not actually been a vet .-.


If I've messed something up here please tell me this post got annoying to write.

[Blockhead]

I neither agree or disagree with alerting N1, it depends on the group of people you're playing with.

People should also not purely think on the statistics of towns to non-towns killed. Because, yes, stastically, you'll kill more town than you will killers.

However, if you do actually kill a bad guy you have significantly weakened the killer's positions. You've eliminated, in one night, 1/4 or (if the Any is NK/Mafia) 1/5 of the town's primary threats. Add on top of that the possibility of a double mafia visit (such as a Janitor). That prospect becomes a full half of the town's primary threats down, or 2/5... on the first night!

Even if you end up killing town, you've proven you're a vet - so the other town should never visit you again, you're confirmed and the killers will be wary of you. Aside from the Mayor, you're one of the only roles you can 100% confirm after the first night (assuming you make a kill of course).

The Veteran is all about big risk, big reward. Every alert, even if you've been discovered, is a gamble (unless you've saved 2 alerts for a final showdown with a killer). Sometimes it pays off, and when it does it usually pays off big. When it doesn't, it's a shame, and in some regards I would argue that killing a town is better than wasting an alert (assume it's the first time of course, otherwise it's better to waste the alert).

As I said, people play Vet differently. Some people bait, others don't, etc. etc. Just don't think of Vet purely on visitation statistics.

[Cat Pondering At Yarn (mogging)]

When i used to play alerting on night 1 worked out. I'd either kill a SK, Mafia or someone bad who'd just ruin the game so it works out.

[somnia et musica]

The thing is, you can not AFFORD to die night one, you are a useful role.

[jason2005]

Originally posted by Generic FPS Elitist:

The thing is, you can not AFFORD to die night one, you are a useful role.

how is the veteran a useful role if you kill a townie and he reveals who he visited in his will tho? seems to defeat the purpose cause the bad guys wont visit you

[Demon of Razgriz]

Originally posted by jason05:

Originally posted by Generic FPS Elitist:

The thing is, you can not AFFORD to die night one, you are a useful role.

how is the veteran a useful role if you kill a townie and he reveals who he visited in his will tho? seems to defeat the purpose cause the bad guys wont visit you

Actually, that is how I used to play Vet. I signed my death notes so that everyone knew who I was. Having a confirmed townie is invaluable and the town can rally around you and the bad guys will be afraid to visit you because you are a vet.

[Rex]

Random alerting in general is a bad idea. There has to be a good reason you legitimately believe you're in danger rather than the whole "I hope they visit me" mindset.