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Unless you know for a fact that it's purely based on level and my experiences are just a weird coincidence, my theory is it's heavily influenced by ego and reputation...
What is your ego at, though? I think ego is also a factor.
Also, tortoises (with whom I have great rep) virtually always succeed on the very first try.
I didn't say it wasn't influenced by ego and what I've said was literally taken from the game's code. In fact, tortoises inherit their MA from basic reptiles, so there shouldn't be a difference in difficulty between Crocs, Dawngliders, Chameleons, Mimics, Frogs, etc, since they all inherit the same willpower for MA.
I can tell you that I reliably fail to proselytize vs. chameleons (who are hostile) but I just plain can't fail vs. tortoises, and the only one of those I have friendly rep with is tortoises.
I'll keep trying for a couple more hours :P
I'm having more success vs. hostile monsters and my new pet is an eyeless crab :P Irritable tortoises are lower level than me so that could very well explain why I was getting consistent success with them, although I can't reliably persuade a lot of random noob mobs out there for some reason. May just be coincidence.
Thanks for the help!
It's not based on reputation. Little Strawberry is right in some ways and wrong on others. They can't be over your level for one thing. Here is the formula otherwise:
(1d8-6) + Ego mod > 4 + Enemy Willpower mod + Enemy MA
Note that the enemy willpower mod and MA can vary from mob to mob in the same type because they just have a base that is randomly added to(little bit of an assumption here based on what i've seen). The stats on the wiki will just give a general idea of where something's stats are.
So rep is just a currency of sorts. A little disappointing, but good to know. I guess my run as the tortoise whisperer was confirmation bias...
Unfortunately, I just died to a Gelatinous Frustum so I can't do any more testing D: Was stuck inside it and still have no idea how to get out, lol.