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And take your time when you are building, don't place 10 buildings at the same time or you'll lose control in no time.
Fish/30 houses(P25,C33,P36,N31) (Peasant, Citizen, Patrician, Noblemen)
Cider/29 houses(P42.5,C22.5,P26,N28.5)
-------------------------
Citizen
Linen/35 houses(C31.5,P42,N62.5)
Spices/33 houses(C33,P36,N31)
-------------------------
Patrician
Bread/25 houses(P29,N25.5)
Bear/26 houses(P25,N26.5)
Jerkins/60 houses(P57,N62.5)
Books/75 houses(P75,N83.5)
Candle/85 houses(P100,N83.5)
-------------------------
Noblemen
Meat/28 houses
Fur Coats/39 houses
Wine/25 houses
Glasses/42 houses
Candle/85 houses
Brocade/52.5 houses
-------------------------
Those numbers are 98% accurate so you need to keep an eye on your warehouse, and use the warehouse to sell the extra goods.
Patricians need Candles after you reach 3000 Noblemen.
It's better to use passive trading, it gives you 2.5 times the money when you use routes to sell.
The stat tracker checks balance betweent your costs and the tax income on a continuous bases. It does not take into account trade history, whether active or passive. Thus the numbers will always be off.
Make sure you understand how the wherehouse sliders work. Read the wiki.
If you get into such large negative terrirtory like I did on that particular scenario, keep a small trade cog at your main port. When it starts to look bad and your trade partner NPC's are taking their sweet time, emergency sell some high value items. Negative 10k and you lose the game.
Learn which items bring in good value and overproduce them to sell passively. Periodically update your sell orders as your storage space grows and your population grows. It's the end product that sells best of course.
If production is backed up and maxed on your mainland and you run out of sell slots, sell from one of your production islands. Items are sure to be backed up there.
Early in the game it will be tools, cloths and rope that saves your bacon. In this crazy scenario I took a small coffee producing island and all I did was sell passively from there. Didn't export it to my oriental city. It let me concentrate on the 3 wars.