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Mercy seems like the best choice from my perspective given the three options since:
Good for popular support to a point since a show of mercy might allow his family to survive and for Lord Ethan to count on a modest increase in popular support among those smallfolk who have suffered horrifically in the War of the Five Kings and the lasting and devastating effects of the Red Wedding on House Forrester.
More likely to find support if choices actually have some measurable and genuine consequences in future episode. Mercy more closely ties the common folk to the Forrester nobility and perhaps opens the potential for covert ops via a grateful soldier to rescue the littlest Forrester from Whitehall and Bolton's evil lair.
You also feed and clothe one family allowing it to remain together and possibly survive whatever doom is coming on the heels of the Flayed Man's Bastard and Whitehall scum and villianry.
Mutiliation: He can't work (not at full capacity) and provide for his family with his brutal disfigurement. The wound could become infected and he could also die as a result of complications from his injury. Those among the crowd who believe it too harsh a punishment will be less willing to support the Forresters in the future but perhaps that's true no matter what you decide here given that this is a Telltale game and your choices don't matter to the plot in any significant way.
Send to Wall: Death Sentence or at best Life Sentence without possibility of parole or even the hope of seeing his family alive again...a family that given the times will likely starve to death come Winter or Ramsey Bolton looking for a little sport among the common folk.
Besides, Lord Ethan the Brave is going to be brutally murdered in his own hall by an evil bastard (both literally and figuratively). Do you really want the stain of an "innocent" man's blood and the likely death by starvation of his innocent family on his lordly soul when he goes to meet his maker?
I don't think even Ned Stark would have said "You cool, let's forget about this". Doesn't exactly send a good message. Next time someone needs money, he can do the same - worse it can happen, you get caught and your lord forgives you. Hey, even today, in more reasonable times, this kind of crime would be seriously punished. Imagine a soldier raiding his unity's weapon storage to sell them to the black market.
Still, you do have a point. He broke the law and should be punished for it. My biggest problem with the other choices is that you are not just punishing him with a virtual death sentence but effectively condemning his entire family (along with the wife and kids I assume) to a death they do not merit even granting that its still his fault and he should have thought through the consequences of his crimes.
I thought mercy required a modest monetary sacrifice and that by turning the other cheek it would spread a message going something like let's all work together to get through the dark days ahead, the Forrester's will protect and look after us so perhaps we should look after and protect them in kind, etc.
It seemed worth a little unorthodox mercy to me given the circumstances surrounding his crime. I can still understand your choice and it does perhaps incentive further crimes but given the Whitehall hostage taking and take-over...perhaps the people and this soldier in particular will be more willing to fight to restore their merciful lord's family. Guerilla tactics, espionage, rescuing the littlest Forrester from Whitehall clutches enroute to their destination.
Yet from past experience, I have my doubts that Telltale will attach any meaningful narrative significance to this or any other choice in the game at least in terms of the plot.
As he wasn't willing to even make a cursory acceptance that what he had done was wrong, especially to the people, I had to do that for him by having his fingers removed. He should still be able to support his family, hopefully with a more reputable profession.
I did listen to him however, and when it came to the decision whether to take extra food from the peasants I insisted on finding other solutions. I'm willing to listen to everyone's problems as long as they bring them to me directly, but going behind my back and even stealing from me will have consequences. I demand respect, but will give it in return.
Well, that was my plan before the ending. Now the forester characters are going to be extremely brutal in retaliation.
as said HE WAS STEALING WEAPONS. he calls it INJUSTICE that you delivered the known punishment FOR THE CRIME OF STEALING....ANYTHING. and you have a guard stealing WEAPONS at a time of war & decide to give him a pass??? wow what a ♥♥♥♥♥♥. i would re play the whole thing bc ur ppl will probably rebel against ur LAME HOUSE at least i would..
When you are starving and desperate and alone you might remember who helped you and who cut your hands off or sent you packing up to where the frost zombies eat human babies for breakfast. Since the House is going to fall into the hands of the Whitehills without a fight any way you slice it, then maybe that little bit of coin would at least see a small family through the Winter.
Remember that he said that they had been working without pay since Lord Gregor died at the Twins in the Red Wedding along with the rest of the Forrester Levy. He was only taking what he thought was "his by right" of his unpaid wages.
He stole the difference of what he was owed for the continued survival of his starving family. He should have begged his lord for aid or even the castellan without resorting to stealing weapons in a time of War.
A literal interpretation of the Law might not always be warranted in every case given the unique circumstances surrounding this time in the Seven Kingdoms.
I'm not saying the other choices are wrong since at least you are certainly disincentiving further bad behavior with the promise of mutilation equal to the Boltons or exile to the Wall without ever seeing his family again.
He certainly should have considered the price before resorting to stealing weapons from the armory or spreading sedition. The fact that he admits it so readily should give you a moment's pause. I've played through all the possible variations so it really doesn't matter since the narrative differences between mercy, mutilation, or exile are likely to be non-existant beyond a spoken line here or there.
That is exactly why i sent him to the wall as i made my decision I wanted to know if they would run into each other, I saw it as a way for them to possibly interact and who knows... ya know? The soldier may end up teaching Gared to fight, im not sure of Jon Snows current situation as i didnt finish season 4... but i think it does take off after season 4? or beginning of ish...
I bet all you get is exactly one line of spoken dialogue. That's all the 400 days from TWD Season 1 got in Season 2. A short cameo before vanishing like so much smoke.
LOL man that would suck if thats all that happened.. I would hope that it goes farther with gared running into him and they stick together possibly because they are from the same city, yea i know gared is a squire but not anymore.. and that also makes me wonder if you have to tell them what you were... ie yea i was a squire.. oh i cant be a ranger?? option.. for example i dont know if this does anything as i havent tried yet but.. i didnt run when i had to chose to stay or run after i watched them flay the dude, i thought running would have got me caught for sure.. I did not do another playthrough yet and try to run and see if im forced to stay because of telltale making me or if i die because of that choice??..