Is House Forrester doomed? What are their Chances? (Analysis)

[Carnwulf]

What do you guys think? Can House Forrester win? Lets analyse their chances.

First the Military

On the Enemy Side their are the

-Whitehills (Probably a moderate Force) with the
- Boltens (A strong army) and thats the biggest Problem.

House Forrester has at their disposal:

-Their own force (a weak Force due to the losses at the twins)

So they are doomed from this viewpoint. However what military support can they (maybe) get?

- House Glenmore (We have no information how strong house glenmore really is, but since the marriage is considered important i guess they have probably a moderate force at hand, like the whitehills).
- Mercenaries from Essos (Asher is trying to hire one hundred mercenaries as it is said in the third part. I consider this a weak force, considering that they are probably very combat experienced you might think of them as a weak-moderate force.)
- The North grove (We have no information what the north grove will do. Will Garedd become a supersoldier through the power of the north grove. Will he recruit some wildlings? Will he come back riding on mammoths or with giants? Will he become a white walker and bring an undead army with him? Will the northgrove be an army of moving trees like the ents? Who knows....)

Loking at this information i would say house Forrester is in Terms of Military Power even with Mercenaries and house glenmore at the clear disadvantage. The north grove is the big X-Factor. If they want to beat their enemies, the north grove better should bring at least another moderate force into the game.



Secondly Politics and Economy

I dont know why, but house forrester doesnt seem to be big on money, which is odd considering that they are doing business with the ironwood for generations. Also their economy is damaged because the whitehills cut their trees and drive away their peasents.

Still the ironwood is the only joker house forrester have in terms of economy.

Political enemies:

- The Whitehills, and because the whitehills are the Bannermen of the Boltens
- The Boltens, and because Roose Bolten is in League with the crown and the Lannisters
- The Crown (Lannisters, with Tyrions Fall there is just cersei left. Good Luck!) not just because of the ties the crown has with the boltens, but also because House Forrester were Bannermen of the Stark.

Political Friends:

- Weak Friendship with Margery (House Tyrell)
- The Glenmores are Willing to Support them (thanks to Margeries help, well ok its fake help since we actually forged the letter or thanks to playing the "Ironwood-Joker")

And thats pretty much it. Again House Forrester is doomed. But...

- Coal Boys Employees might be very strong hidden allies. Most likely it is Varys or Littlefinger who play their own game by supporting us. In theory also house MArtell might be behind helping us, to weaken the Lannisters.
- Also if we can ally ourselves with Lord Morgwyn (the one who tried to also get the trade agreement for the ironwood), we might have another moderate ally at our hand.

Politicly House Forrester is even more ♥♥♥♥ed than in terms of military, which is a pretty amazing thing to do. However we still have chances with our hidden allies and the possibility is strong that the Boltens will drop the whitehills when they start to understand that they REALLY Suck with the ironwood and when we ally ourselves with Lord Morgwyn the Boltens might see the Necessity to rely on us instead on the whitehills for money and trade of the ironwood.

Final Verdict

I think the difference betwenn being doomed and save the house will lie within the ability of house forrester to make the whitehills look bad, so that the Boltens stop supporting the whitehills. The moment this is achieved everything will become easy for house forrester. In Terms of Military and Politics the Forrester would then be way stronger than the Whitehills, becuase the Whitehills are without the Boltens not a very serious threat. If it does not happen...

Wish you Good Luck House Forrester! You are doomed (you better hope/beg Garred finds some Awesome "Deus ex machina"-Magic in the North Grove...)!

[shan]

I think you are reading too much into the Whitehills being sworn to the Boltons.

The Iron Throne was accustomed to recieving ironwood from the North, however, I imagine after Robb Stark declared himself King and marched south, this arrangement ended.

Now that Roose is Warden of the North after the Red Wedding, his first order of business was to secure he ironwood and to send shipments to the Iron Throne. The problem is, the Forresters, who control most of the ironwood, were sworn to the Starks and so they could not be trusted to deliver, especially with their lord and, what was assumed at that time, adult heir having died at the Twins. When Ramsay came and killed Ethan, captured Ryon and gave control of Ironrath to the Whitehills (their sworn bannermen), he did this under orders from his father in order to secure the ironwood.

The point I'm trying to make is that Ironwood deliveries heading south to King's Landing is very important to the Bolton/Iron Throne relationship. Hence, in the first episode if you tried to convince Ramsay that you have a competitive advantage on ironwood production, he looks as if he is genuinely considering what you are saying.

If the Forresters can guarantee that the Iron Throne can recieve ironwood shipments, (Mira's storyline), then the Boltons, while probably not liking the situation, aren't going to involve themselves militarily in a vassal dispute, (an act that would anger ALL their new northern vassals and would make them even more hated than they were already).

[impliedword]

well. they are nothing without a north lord aka the starks. but in the show stanis starts retaking the north by helping at the wall, so maybe it will be enough.

[Sor Geogus]

Carnwulf の投稿を引用：

I was completely unaware of the activities of stannis in the north. That will of course captivate tzhe attention of the boltens and give house forrester a chance in battle. The ironman are to volatile in their loyalty and hard to predict so i dont count them in as enemies or friens. At least in the game so far they have made no introduction.

Dont think Ironborn will ally the forrester or whitehill. They will fight for themselves.

However, they might work as a common enemy for the whitehills and forrester and bring them toghther. Or the forrests, with cunning, might try to direct the iron islands power against whitehills to wek then and after deal with them

[Carnwulf]

Would that not be an awesome ending. The ironborn threaten forrester and whitehill. Asher marries gwyn and forrester and whitehill end their hostilities by a maariage alliance. I think that is a real possibility considering asher and gwyn did like each other.

[El Prezidente]

Most things you said are wrong but too lazy to write all the bad things you said.

[Fisherman Joe]

Hound (Sandor Clegane) の投稿を引用：

Most things you said are wrong but too lazy to write all the bad things you said.

I don't think anyone using icons like "steamfacepalm" isn't trolling.

Especially with 'controversial' debate topics from the dead.

[El Prezidente]

Or im gonna write them up since the guy thinks im trolling.
- The North grove (We have no information what the north grove will do. Will Garedd become a supersoldier through the power of the north grove. Will he recruit some wildlings? Will he come back riding on mammoths or with giants? Will he become a white walker and bring an undead army with him? Will the northgrove be an army of moving trees like the ents? Who knows....)
... High chance that North Grove isnt some source of gaining power,but the Fortress build by Children of the forest/First men that is able to defend from White Walkers...
- The Crown (Lannisters, with Tyrions Fall there is just cersei left. Good Luck!) not just because of the ties the crown has with the boltens, but also because House Forrester were Bannermen of the Stark.
...The Crown hasnt got any tie or relationship with Boltons,they are just their puppets,ready to get disposed off when the time comes and they stop being useful.
- Weak Friendship with Margery (House Tyrell)
...Not anymore after Mira pissing her of many times...
- The Glenmores are Willing to Support them (thanks to Margeries help, well ok its fake help since we actually forged the letter or thanks to playing the "Ironwood-Joker")
...They dont get any Military support anymore since Lord Glenmores son was killed and he will blame Rodrik,since he forbid his son and daughter to help yet they went and son died.
And Political support maybe if the daughter runs away from home and maybe gains marriage with Rodrik (if you let him live) which wasnt blessed by father tho.

[Zeldun]

I imagine Rodrik and Gryff Whitehill fighting intensely and dramatically with countless dead bodies all around them after the final battle- thunder and lightning pounding in the background. Some of the dead are familiar characters. With the memories of Asher fueling his rage, their clash is so intense that they eventually find themselves fighting along a cliff side. With luck on his side, Rodrik eventually disarms Gryff. But right before laying the final blow, Rodrik bellows "THERE CAN OOOONLY BEEE OOONEE~!" and chops Gryff's head clean off. Thus, he gains ultimate knowledge and helps defeat The Others.

[Fisherman Joe]

Mr.Goodkat の投稿を引用：

I imagine Rodrik and Gryff Whitehill fighting intensely and dramatically with countless dead bodies all around them after the final battle- thunder and lightning pounding in the background. Some of the dead are familiar characters. With the memories of Asher fueling his rage, their clash is so intense that they eventually find themselves fighting along a cliff side. With luck on his side, Rodrik eventually disarms Gryff. But right before laying the final blow, Rodrik bellows "THERE CAN OOOONLY BEEE OOONEE~!" and chops Gryff's head clean off. Thus, he gains ultimate knowledge and helps defeat The Others.

And then he becomes Azor Ahai and slays the dragons.

[Carnwulf]

Mr.Goodkat の投稿を引用：

I imagine Rodrik and Gryff Whitehill fighting intensely and dramatically with countless dead bodies all around them after the final battle- thunder and lightning pounding in the background. Some of the dead are familiar characters. With the memories of Asher fueling his rage, their clash is so intense that they eventually find themselves fighting along a cliff side. With luck on his side, Rodrik eventually disarms Gryff. But right before laying the final blow, Rodrik bellows "THERE CAN OOOONLY BEEE OOONEE~!" and chops Gryff's head clean off. Thus, he gains ultimate knowledge and helps defeat The Others.

Would be epic but not exactly the game of thrones way.

[✚ Mariel ✚]

Out of curiosity I had a go at House Forrester in the Crusader Kings 2 mod. In 4 years I was Lord Paramount in the North (screenshot on my profile)

It was kinda weird though. For some strange reason Ramsay made Rodrick regent if he should die. He then got killed by rebels and his kid sister inherited his titles. With me as regent I had her give me the lands they owned. They had taken someone's crappy land so I had her give me the Dreadfort and Winterfell while only keeping the crappy land. Then I realised that as she has no other relatives (except Roose) that makes me in line for the region of The North title. So I assassinated her and took over. Then the Others invaded and game over lol

[Robo_Warrior]

jenniferthomas28 の投稿を引用：

Out of curiosity I had a go at House Forrester in the Crusader Kings 2 mod. In 4 years I was Lord Paramount in the North (screenshot on my profile)

It was kinda weird though. For some strange reason Ramsay made Rodrick regent if he should die. He then got killed by rebels and his kid sister inherited his titles. With me as regent I had her give me the lands they owned. They had taken someone's crappy land so I had her give me the Dreadfort and Winterfell while only keeping the crappy land. Then I realised that as she has no other relatives (except Roose) that makes me in line for the region of The North title. So I assassinated her and took over. Then the Others invaded and game over lol

My CK2 AGOT run ended perfectly: Robb being the King Of The North and The Trident with Margery as his wife.
Tyrion on sitting on the Iron Throne with a Stark wife (Sansa)
Daenerys conquered half of Essos and now rules the biggest kingdom in the entire world.
Jon Snow legitimized and given land by Robb.
White Walkers were decimated by Tyrion's and Robb's combined host of a hundred thousand men.

All is great except when you notice that Stannis has a bunch of bad/evil traits like "posessed" and such while ruling some puny island in the Summer Isles. At least there is a Baratheon still controlling the Stormlands (Shireen).

Just my 2 cents.

[Carnwulf]

Robo_warrior の投稿を引用：

My CK2 AGOT run ended perfectly: Robb being the King Of The North and The Trident with Margery as his wife.
Tyrion on sitting on the Iron Throne with a Stark wife (Sansa)
Daenerys conquered half of Essos and now rules the biggest kingdom in the entire world.
Jon Snow legitimized and given land by Robb.
White Walkers were decimated by Tyrion's and Robb's combined host of a hundred thousand men.

All is great except when you notice that Stannis has a bunch of bad/evil traits like "posessed" and such while ruling some puny island in the Summer Isles. At least there is a Baratheon still controlling the Stormlands (Shireen).

Just my 2 cents.

Cool story and yesterday i did de-install Crusader Kings 2 and now you tell me about this awesome mod. You are a cruel person! ;)

[Robo_Warrior]

Carnwulf の投稿を引用：

Robo_warrior の投稿を引用：

My CK2 AGOT run ended perfectly: Robb being the King Of The North and The Trident with Margery as his wife.
Tyrion on sitting on the Iron Throne with a Stark wife (Sansa)
Daenerys conquered half of Essos and now rules the biggest kingdom in the entire world.
Jon Snow legitimized and given land by Robb.
White Walkers were decimated by Tyrion's and Robb's combined host of a hundred thousand men.

All is great except when you notice that Stannis has a bunch of bad/evil traits like "posessed" and such while ruling some puny island in the Summer Isles. At least there is a Baratheon still controlling the Stormlands (Shireen).

Just my 2 cents.

Cool story and yesterday i did de-install Crusader Kings 2 and now you tell me about this awesome mod. You are a cruel person! ;)

Sadly this masterpiece of a mod is not working for the time being.. Paradox truly f'ed up with the Horse Lords update and it broke a lot of things from the mod including: Daenerys and everyone with no lands , Dragons and the Dothraki.
The mod crew has done everything in their power to fix it and now its up to Paradox if they bother to change a few things to make the mod work.

Here's the mod: http://www.moddb.com/mods/crusader-kings-2-a-game-of-thrones-ck2agot
(Just in case Paradox actually does something to fix it.. It has been 4 months how ever..)

[Carnwulf]

Thank you!