Chance rate of Success

[GoobleMoWizard]

Why is the chance rate of customers accepting weed high, and then they still don't take it? I'm trying to be friends with the required customers, and 74% should be enough, but apparently it's still not. Even 90% can give a chance of rejection.. I call Bull.

[CrazyIvan512]

umm.. 90% chance of acceptance still leaves.. 10% of rejection possibility .. I dont get your confusion? I have had customers with 90% chance of liking a product reject it, and I have had customers with 60% chance of liking it accept it ..

either give them a different product to get them hooked, or just go back and give them the same one you gave them before.. theres always a chance of liking or not..

[GoobleMoWizard]

Originally posted by CrazyIvan512:

umm.. 90% chance of acceptance still leaves.. 10% of rejection possibility .. I dont get your confusion? I have had customers with 90% chance of liking a product reject it, and I have had customers with 60% chance of liking it accept it ..

either give them a different product to get them hooked, or just go back and give them the same one you gave them before.. theres always a chance of liking or not..

Yeah, it's confusing. Even with a 10% chance of rejection, shouldn't be a no. And like it or not, yeah I know, but it's still stupid imo. I was just asking, and this came off a little hostile to me.

[Aieet Mahpoo]

A lesson learned from XCOM: "A 99% chance is not a 100% chance".

[Scarsick]

So, you're saying if you go parachute jump and the instructor says there's a 10% chance the thing won't open you go anyway? After all, those 10% don't mean a thing, right?

Unless you're saying your product at 78% of chance of success is getting rejected for over 78% of costumers with that 78% chance of success, than it's not bull. It's math doing it's thing.

[GoobleMoWizard]

Originally posted by Scarsick:

So, you're saying if you go parachute jump and the instructor says there's a 10% chance the thing won't open you go anyway? After all, those 10% don't mean a thing, right?

Unless you're saying your product at 78% of chance of success is getting rejected for over 78% of costumers with that 78% chance of success, than it's not bull. It's math doing it's thing.

Bro, I'm actually done talking, lol! We're not talking about realism, get out of here with that crap, lol! Just leave.

[Maligner]

I have no issues with the system. I just come back the next day and the sucker eventually wants to buy.

[AriadneSolInvictus]

That is how statistical probability works. If you offer the product to 100 customers with a 90% chance of them liking it, then 10 of those 100 will reject it. Just wait a day and give the same product to the same customer and chances are good they will take it.

[Orbnotacus]

Anytime I see posts like this, My first thought is always, "Awww... Poor little kid... bless his heart." but then I look at the profile and see it's an adult and I'm completely flabbergasted that a fully grown human doesn't understand how %'s or odds work. Still... Bless your heart. Lmfao.

[KingSchwing]

"Even 90% can give a chance of rejection.."

Correct.

[Mr White]

Originally posted by Aieet Mahpoo:

A lesson learned from XCOM: "A 99% chance is not a 100% chance".

just 99 times out of 100 something happens

[GetSome]

Drastically cut your prices to earn friendship faster. if a product u sell for 40, then sell it for 10. Its just temporary, then when they do become friendly level you can let the dealer handle them.

[Thundercracker]

Originally posted by GoobleMoWizard:

Why is the chance rate of customers accepting weed high, and then they still don't take it? I'm trying to be friends with the required customers, and 74% should be enough, but apparently it's still not. Even 90% can give a chance of rejection.. I call Bull.

i call BS on winning the lottery. there was only a 0.00000000001% chance i'd win, and i won.

74% means that out of every 100 attempts, you're going to average about 25 rejections.

note, this is /average./ this means that one 100, you get 30 rejections, another 100, 20.

over time the real number of rejections matches the expected outcome more and more closely.

the part you're not grasping is that these are averages, over 100's of attempts. on the individual attempt scale, meaning you look at each single attempted sale, and it's not going to match the probability very closely.

you're probably thinking, "oh, 75%, only 1 in 4 will reject it." that's not how it works. the average does not tell you where in the sequence your rejections will be. every fourth attempt failing is the same statistical odds as 75 successes in a row, then 25 failures in a row.

[GoobleMoWizard]

I asked one simple question and y'all just come at me like a angry mob. I have left this discussion cause no one can have an honest civilized conversation anymore. Please see your way out.

[CrazyIvan512]

Originally posted by GoobleMoWizard:

I asked one simple question and y'all just come at me like a angry mob. I have left this discussion cause no one can have an honest civilized conversation anymore. Please see your way out.

No.. You just didnt get the response you wanted that agreed with your entitled attitude about percentages , and want a game that has everything just the way you like it all the time

[siegeshieldalt]

It's basic statistics. It says 90% not 100. That means that there is still a 10% chance of them saying no which is still pretty likely.