Casino Ride the bus Odds [8% lean for the player]

[1WeirdDood]

Basic info

Inside the Casino their is a table called "Ride The Bus". In my mind it seemed too good to be true and found the following results if you stuck with the first two rounds.

Abstract

Round 1 (Color): 50% - perfectly balanced
Round 2 (Higher or lower): 71.7% Win
If you stick to two rounds and play smart, the player is in favor by 8%

Calculations

3 possible cases:

Case 1:Loose Round 1, Case 2: Win round 1, loose round 2, and Case 3: Win both rounds.
Assume with $1 bet

Case 1

50% chance to loose 1 so 0.5 * (-1) = -0.5 = C1

Case 2

First to solve what is the probability of loosing Round 2
(the 1/13 is because there are 13 different cards) * (odds of winning for each)
1/13 * (0.9608+0.8824+0.8039+0.7255+0.6471+0.5686+0.4902+0.5686+0.6471+0.7255+0.8039+0.8824+0.9608) = 0.717 so 71.7% to win or 1-0.717 for 28.3% to loose.
(0.5 for chance of winning round 1)
0.5 * 0.283 = 0.1415% = C2

Case 3

(0.5 for winning round 1 and 0.717 for winning round 2)
0.5 * 0.717 = 35.85% = C`3
if you get to case 3 then you get the 3x which means a profit of $2 so
C`3 * 2 = 0.717 =C3

Adding up

Odds = C1 + C2 + C3
Odds = (−0.5) + (−0.1415) + (0.717)
Odds = 0.0755
*100 for %

~8% lean for the player

Strategy

For round one its a 50/50. Choose a color and hope for the best
For round two you want to say:
Higher, for the cards 2 3 4 5 6 7
Lower, for the cards 9 10 J Q K A
8 is in the middle so either way does not matter =D

[RedMayhem]

Are you one of those dealers that smoked his own weed?

[1WeirdDood]

Opprinnelig skrevet av RedMayhem:

Are you one of those dealers that smoked his own weed?

yea

[z0na]

I think it may be even better if you just take the 2x on 6,7,8,9,10, and just take 3x if the cards are close together by ~4. No need to push if it is unlikely. not a stats guy so correct me if im wrong

[FlyingAllNight]

Only place the odds are bad is the Blackjack table and maybe slot machine 3.

[Corner]

You can actually get an edge of 37%!
If you play this strategy:
Cashout higher or lower if you get 7, 8 or 9,
Cashout inside or outside if you have a difference of 5 or 6 (i.e 3,8 or 3,9)
Otherwise play the obvious choice
(For the suit one make sure you pick a suit that hasn't been used yet if possible)

Here is my python simulation:
https://pastebin.com/Xi1EMYGv

[Skankinpig]

Opprinnelig skrevet av FlyingAllNight:

Only place the odds are bad is the Blackjack table and maybe slot machine 3.

Blackjack odds seem about right to normal casinos - so depending upon play should have as low as a 0.5% house edge.

[Gaming Nut 2112]

Opprinnelig skrevet av RedMayhem:

Are you one of those dealers that smoked his own weed?

Pass that sh*t around to the rest of us ! lmao

[IMEI]

I uh... Was under the understanding that there would be no math in this game.
You're hashin' my buzz bro

(Nice job on the math, but I haven't had nearly enough coffee to understand this yet.)

[Gaming Nut 2112]

Opprinnelig skrevet av IMEI:

I uh... Was under the understanding that there would be no math in this game.
You're hashin' my buzz bro

(Nice job on the math, but I haven't had nearly enough coffee to understand this yet.)

I'm on my 3rd cup and I still don't understand it ?

[z0na]

Opprinnelig skrevet av CornerMercury18:

You can actually get an edge of 37%!
If you play this strategy:
Cashout higher or lower if you get 7, 8 or 9,
Cashout inside or outside if you have a difference of 5 or 6 (i.e 3,8 or 3,9)
Otherwise play the obvious choice
(For the suit one make sure you pick a suit that hasn't been used yet if possible)

Here is my python simulation:
https://pastebin.com/Xi1EMYGv

Higher or lower BOTH hit for 8, so you should definitely hit on 8.

[NoLifeToutant]

Opprinnelig skrevet av z0na:

Opprinnelig skrevet av CornerMercury18:

You can actually get an edge of 37%!
If you play this strategy:
Cashout higher or lower if you get 7, 8 or 9,
Cashout inside or outside if you have a difference of 5 or 6 (i.e 3,8 or 3,9)
Otherwise play the obvious choice
(For the suit one make sure you pick a suit that hasn't been used yet if possible)

Here is my python simulation:
https://pastebin.com/Xi1EMYGv

Higher or lower BOTH hit for 8, so you should definitely hit on 8.

My guy you are using your own supply, aren't you? You can only do higher or lower so 8 is a terrible number to decide what to pick on, as you are basically rolling another 50/50. If it's a king, obvious lower. A 2? Etc. But an 8 man? Don't go the casino

[apex.]

Based on my math, the game has an EV of 1.56 with optimal play.

Looks something like this:

STAGE 1: Guess.
STAGE 2: If the card value is >= 8, choose lower. If the card value is <= 8, choose higher.
STAGE 3: If delta <= 4, choose outside. If delta >= 9, choose inside. Else forfeit. (Note: Delta is the difference in value between the two cards on the table).
STAGE 4: Pick any suit not face up.