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2. No
This is in my opinion. Why do you think they were holding back out of curiosity? Because they were on the same side as The Boss?
If so I do not think they knew The Boss was still loyal to her country; Snake was purely too skilled for them.
The Pain - chooses such a poor place to fight Snake as a cave with underground lake.
The End - is using tranquilizer shots instead of lethal bullets and he do not even finish you off if you loose the battle against The End.
The Fury - not sure, maybe he was the only one who wanted Snake to die.
Lastly, if The Fury was "the only one who wanted Snake to die" why the inconsistency? And what of the Sorrow?
The main reason I believe the Cobra Unit were not going easy on Snake is because if they were, that means The Joy ordered them to. The Boss was the one who had total control over them, even Volgin did not know what they had been tasked to do. This is the biggest hole in your theory, The Boss would do anything to maintain her cover as a defected Soviet, even going to lengths of nearly gauging Snake's eyes out. She needed Snake to succeed but she was loyal to her mission aswell. If anyone found out The Boss was not on their side, she would be killed, resulting in World War 3, even if the Cobra Unit were secretely working for her, someone would find out eventually, even if not the risk is far too high.
Another point I have are the Microbombs each of the Cobra Unit members have on them. They got these during the World War for various reasons you can find on the internet. They have no country to return to and the battlefield is the only place they have to die. "Maybe they're ready."
Now these legendary soldiers have had no previous desire to die. They would fight with all they have to avoid that, they don't want to die, aswell as the fact they are prepared to obliterate themselves as to not share any information with the enemy. If they are beaten they are nothing, literally. Now, The Sorrow and The Joy are members of the Cobras so why don't they blow up when defeated (obviously before The Sorrow became a ghost)? Now things get interesting, the Cobra always have there microbombs on even when not in hostile territory but the two I mentioned do not. This is because Big Boss had to kill his mentor with his own hands and have proof for it (a non-defiled body) so she must have turned her bomb off, if she even had one. So, why did The Boss not ask the rest of the Cobras, albeit The Sorrow to switch theres off? Food for thought.
Anyways, to conclude, it would be a pretty shoddy story if it turned out that all the Cobras were letting you win so you could succeed. The Cobras were tasked with a mission to kill Naked Snake but none succeeded due to Snake's skill. During cutscenes where The Boss informs Volgin of the deaths of the Cobras they both look surprised.
I will not mind trying to counter anymore factors that don't add up but it's not a bad theory guys! :)
i'm not certain at all whether they 'went easy' on him, but with the fury in particular, he was definitely pretty ok with dying. when he's defeated, he goes full acid-flashback mode and starts talking to mission control as he blasts away. and doesn't seem too bothered about it at all. dude just likes fire