So, who else got boned by Monty Hall first time?

[Zorlond]

Before you say it, I know the paradox. I know what to do when faced with it.

And yet, first time I tried that puzzle? Three dead characters. :P Wonderful. Fortunately it worked like it was supposed to the second attempt.

[Roro]

Yup, the exact thing happened to me.

[GFJ]

I had the reverse issue.

First time I made the correct choice and had a successful outcome
Then for completionists sake I wanted to fail
Next two times I made the wrong choice but still succeded.

[monoestate]

Well that means the Monty Hall problem is working as expected
You have a 9/10 chance that switching is correct
You unluckily or luckily as some would say, got that 1/10 chance that it would be wrong to switch.

[Rox]

I switched the first time and got it wrong.
I stayed the second time and got it wrong.
I switched the third time and got it right.

I'm not liking these random chance "decisions" in this game.

[Neko_Baron]

If you want an easy visual way of explaining and actually testing the monty hall problem watch this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvODuUMLLgM
Personally I cant stand the problem and its infuritating to me but this is a great simple explaination of the problem and the game theory behind it.

[Ashura Mazah]

Originally posted by Kanaev:

The first time I stayed and got it wrong.
TP says he "knows what to do". Would you care yo enlighten us? I'm not familliar with this paradox. Mostly because I don't live in America and don't watch tv shows. There's no right answer for this, as far as I see. You choose one door. One opens. The host teases you and offers to change doors. He could be either lying and misleading you away from the prise, or he could count on the fact that you realise that he tried to mislead you and don't change the door.
Either way it's a success and pure luck. He misleads you in both outcomes, even if you get it right.

The key is the fact that all the doors that get excluded do not contain the best prize. That's a very important fact that makes the whole thing work.

With just 3 doors it's harder to see any benefit, but with 10 like in the game it's easier. Let's imagine we have 100 doors though, and only 1 contains the prize.
You pick a door. There's a 1% chance you got it right. 98 empty doors open, and you can now switch. You'd think it's a 50/50 shot right now, and without knowing about the other 98 doors you'd be right, but look at it a different way. What is the chance that the prize was NOT in the door you picked originally? 99%. The other door is the only one left that wasn't picked originally. There's a 99% chance that it has the prize.

Basically all the doors that get opened cause the one that's left to acumulate the chance from them.

[Megamans Fat Nutsack]

I failed twice in a row after switching. But to make up for it I got the .46% success one on my third try so I guess it all evens out

edit: I spoke too soon

[Ashura Mazah]

Originally posted by Papa Durst:

I failed twice in a row after switching. But to make up for it I got the .46% success one on my third try so I guess it all evens out

Not to burst your bubble, but I think it's rigged to susceed on the 3rd try. Akane even uses that as an example in the next scene ^^;
If you actually had to repeat a scene ~200 times it would be pretty rage inducing.

[Megamans Fat Nutsack]

Originally posted by Poki#3:

Originally posted by Papa Durst:

I failed twice in a row after switching. But to make up for it I got the .46% success one on my third try so I guess it all evens out

Not to burst your bubble, but I think it's rigged to susceed on the 3rd try. Akane even uses that as an example in the next scene ^^;
If you actually had to repeat a scene ~200 times it would be pretty rage inducing.

yeah I just kept going. my kaiji dreams have been smashed

[Canard_de_Bain]

I got so disheartened when I failed after switching, because I was puzzling over it in my head for a while before thinking the switch is higher probability.

[UnLuckyCat]

Originally posted by Kanaev:

The first time I stayed and got it wrong.
TP says he "knows what to do". Would you care yo enlighten us? I'm not familliar with this paradox. Mostly because I don't live in America and don't watch tv shows. There's no right answer for this, as far as I see. You choose one door. One opens. The host teases you and offers to change doors. He could be either lying and misleading you away from the prise, or he could count on the fact that you realise that he tried to mislead you and don't change the door.
Either way it's a success and pure luck. He misleads you in both outcomes, even if you get it right.

There's no trickery involved at all. They explain exactly what happens:
If you chose correctly (1/10 chance) then 8 incorrect lockers open and a random incorrect locker is left.
If you chose wrong (9/10 chance) then 8 incorrect lockers open up, and the correct one is left.

So nine times out of ten, you'll pick the wrong door at first, and switching will give you the correct one. If you think you blindly picked the correct door the first time without any help, then don't switch.

Essentially, switching is like choosing every other door all at once. Not switching is just one door and that's it.