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I would rather replace "culprit" with "mystery" to be on the safe side of unintentional revealing that some potential theories Higurashi new comers can come up with are wrong.
Any idea how to do it?
Before you all think I'm trying to sound super smart here I should mention that I had discarded this theory in favour of a conspiracy by the locals before the end of the arc. Which really is the cleverness of the writing, how Ryukishi gives you the answer, then hands you a completely different answer, and then gives you another completely different answer which you debunk but *actually* it was a metaphor for the real answer. Because the villagers couldn't *really* be possessed by demons right?
No, it doesn't. They're all rounded up and gassed by the nutters working for Tokyo.
Good point, changed it over
It's not the identity of her murderer that matters at all. When she's killed by Shion her body isn't discovered until it's well after the period that Droopy-tan predicted everyone would go crazy from Hinamizawa syndrome (which is what the gassing of the village is supposed to prevent). It's only when her body is discovered in a timely fashion that the plan goes into effect and the village is killed.
Yeah, but I don't think it can be figured out by that point. All we know is, both in Watanagashi and Meakashi it's shown that enough time has passed after the incidents - meaning the Disaster didn't happen. In Tatrigoroshi, Himatsubushi and Tsumihoroboshi, it definitely happened; in Onikakushi, we don't know for sure. Seems like there should be something common in those chapters that don't have the Disaster. Perhaps, the death of Rika? She's the only one confirmed to die in Tsumihoroboshi before the Disaster (aside from the usual duo). Perhaps her death has something to do with the Disaster? By existing of these facts, that level of reasoning is possible for player.
(Please note that all this time I am talking from a point of view of someone who played up to arc 6, not talking information from Minagoroshi and Matsuribayashi in account as we aquire full answers by that time).