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While that comparison suggests the game is entirely "guessing", it isn't exactly. "Guessing" just happens to be a large part of it. If you were to take the game of Rock, Paper, Scissors in whole as two people shaking their fists and coming up with a result, you have to factor in the other subtler conditions that go with that. Example: How much delay on the 3rd fist shake between you and your opponent is considered acceptable before revealing Rock, Paper, or Scissors? Does your opponent have tells when they move? Do they tend to pick Scissors next after they've picked Rock?
Same principle applies to this game: Which direction are they going to attack from? Are they going to attack, bash, or guard-break? Parry beats Attack, Paper beats Rock, Dodge beats Bash, and Scissors beats Paper.
The meta still applies today, and I suspect it is the root of the problem with Ubisoft's failed attempts at balancing the game. It is very difficult to balance a game with a limited number of moves with very little variance. Their attempts to add that "variance" with moves such as shoulder-bash being "charged", or allowing a degree of delay before shield-bash or kick in a combo, tends to upset a lot of players whose favorite hero does not possess that variance with their moves. Some of these heroes that got reworks never got any variation to their moves, and instead they simply increased the speed of their light attacks (lawbringer + raider). This ends up supporting the meta, rather than breaking free of it.
Study it a bit and you find your place again.