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Going into the game with no strategy is my strategy. Finishing the quests tells me my position in the game and best route or routes to victory, like I could have collected 2 spirit stones by the first few days and have a hot rot or teleport card which would push me down spirit stone route. I could have picked up a bane blade from a quest and some other very strong items which I'd say would push me more down attacking other players and attacking the king or maybe prestige farming. You might try to snipe a prestige win by third partying other players and sitting on the edge of the action. You might have done absolutely nothing and try to sneak into the castle on the back of another players failed attempt.
You'll get games in this as well where you play the perfect game and simply don't win, games where you feel like you've stole a win or games where you just admire the play of the winner. It's what makes the game.
Not intended as derogatory or a put down but I remember back when I was on 6 hours play time, I used to cast debuffs on myself and buff other players and lock myself into certain win conditions and make all the common mistakes. At 6 hours I'd say you wont win reliably, its a learning stage and even then you could tack on another 100 hours and still not win reliably but you'd be in a position to have insight and experience of whats on the board and your best moves which goes back to experience.
Personally I'd read up some of the character guides, watch some people stream this and see their thought process and just play more. The great thing about Armello is some of the most satisfying games arent even the ones where you win IMO.
That will allow you to have more experience at the game, as well as provide you with more potential variety in your starting equipment because you're not limited to only a couple of items in your saved character loadout(s).
Plus if you also use the amulet which gives a star after each game, you'll still progress regardless. (Though I've heard you still need to win to increase your player level when you've maxed out the stars on each. I'm not certain on that detail.)
It's extremely important to note that XP is functionally meaningless in this game -- the only thing you unlock by levelling is an amulet of dubious usefulness at player level 10, and rings for each playable character at character level 2. It only takes two lost solo games, one victorious solo game, or one multiplayer game (win or lose) to bring a character up to level 2.
You are not missing out on anything meaningful by missing out on multiplayer experience, other than learning how to play against other players. A level 100 opponent is going to be at the mercy of the RNG just as much as you are, no matter what their build is.
I recommend playing MP personally, you become way better at the game by playing against human opponents.
1: Have a clear idea of each character and their possible builds. You can learn this by observing what other *experienced* players do with characters
2: Understand card flow. It's actually a very easy concept to understand. You always want good cards in your hands and not the bad cards, which would congest your hand. But ofc Armello is a game where you are forced to draw cards, so you will constantly get good and bad cards, you need to learn how to safely dispose these bad cards.Burning is not just there so you can burn useful symbols to aid the check, but also a great chance to consume bad cards, the same can be said for many battles. You need to have a flow of cards in and out, save cards for certain situation and try to discard the rest.
3: Weigh risk and reward carefully. A lot of players don't think ahead. Instead, they only see the benefit right in front of them. Let me give you a very simple example. You are 3 girds away from your quest destination, there are 2 routes, 1 goes through a dungeon, one doesn't. Many players go on the route with the dungeon, and that makes sense on surface, hey you can get gold, spirit stone, magic, treature, follower.... and probably a teleportation or a bane.. But hey those chances are so small, what's the harm in that. If you really think about it, whatever you got there for this specific scenario doesn't justify the risk. Shall you get a bane, you may... 1: Emerge victorious, which is awesome, kudos to you, but you can't reach your mission objective this turn, you wasted a turn. A difference of one turn can mean you are still on your forth mission and someone is already in the palace. 2: Emerge victorious, but badly injured. This would mean a higher likelihood of you dying on your way to your next mission due to low health. You again lose a turn 3: You didn't get injured much, but you also didn't kill the bane. You not only lost a turn but also have a bane in your way now. 4: You die to the bane, take 1 rot and return to base. This means you not only lost multiple turns, but also took on 1 point of rot. Teleportation is even worse, sometimes it could mean an end to your game if you are teleported away on your first turn to the other side of the map. You wouldn't be able to catch up to other players in terms of mission progression. So you see why it (may) not worth it to take risks sometimes? The same goes for whether to risk HP and prestige to win that sweet prize in mission. Just remember, in order of descending importance: prestige penalty > HP penalty > magic penalty. You probably really wouldn't want to lose that prestiage on your first turn, especially if you are the first one to go, because getting that prestige set you up in the leader position which can give you quite a sway on the whole game sometimes. It is more important for you to get into leader position so you can prevent undesirable policy the most of the time. You also don't want to confront a player every time you two come across, sometimes you want to deliberately avoid them, even waste a turn. You need to think afar. If your Sana doesn't confront that Thane who blocks your path to quest, you lose 1 turn. If you confront that Thane, which almost guarantees to get you killed (unless you build a super tanky or fight based sana), it would end up wasting you more than one turn. Pick your fight only when A: You are sure you can come out alright B: You want to delibrately die because your base is closer to the next objective.
4: Know your goal. In every game, you should start by focusing on prestige unless you are a super specialised kingslayer/rot king slayer. Remember everyone can go into the palace once they finish 4 missions, but only one can be the prestige leader. Whether you are the prestige leader doesn't interfere with whether you are capable of kingslaying. Essentially become and stay the prestige leader give you the freedom of choosing between prestige and kingslayer. I actually won most of my game through prestige victory. A lot of the time even if a player ends up breaching palace, they die to the king and you still win. King slaying should be your secondary choice. Only when A: You can't stop other players from breaching the palace, or it is too risky to let them do their thing. (such as that you suspect someone hold a hot rot wine or strategist) B: You have zero hope of catching up to the prestige leader. Then you go for that. You should only go for rot if A: You are specially built for rot victory, B: You are already heavily infected (like 3 rot), and you can't beat the prestige leader at their game. Know that rot victory is the riskiest condition among the 4 victory conditions. Spirit stone is a bit tricky. It's somewhat RNG based, again most of the time focus on prestige and kingslaying. You should only try to achieve the others when there is a good chance of succeeding or you know for certain you can't catch up to the leader.
5: Save hot rot wine and strategist for palace rush! I can't stress this enough. Everytime you see a player use hot rot wine or especially strategist outside of the palace, it means: A: They are rookies who simply doesn't know better. B: They have another copy of either. C: They wish to pursue the prestige victory and think it's too risky to leave it in their hand to be stolen. Every time you enter the palace, you lose all your action points, and therefore cannot confront the king in the same turn, allowing the other three players to try their best to get rid of you in their turns. But if you save your hot rot wine and strategist after you already got into the palace, you can get 1 action points and attack the king on the same turn. This is a sign of a competent player who can do basic planning. Remember, you must only use them AFTER you already got into the palace, and that if you are the spirit walker, drinking hot rot wine on 2 HP will kill you instantly.
6: Don't give up! A lot of times you start poorly and you feel awful. Don't give up, a lot of time this could actually be a blessing. Players generally don't beat the wet dog, when they see you suffered misfortune and think that you can't be a threat, they would go on and fight among each other. If you hold steady and keep doing your thing, you may just snitch that prestige victory by becoming a sudden king slayer with hot rot wine. You also need to know the palace pattern (which never changes) so in the worst case you can try force breaking into the palace before your last quest.
7: Use chat to show/hide your intention. You would be surprised how much this may sway a player's decision. Say if you come over dangerously close to a character, they may not want to fight you, but they don't know you also don't want to fight them. If you don't say anything, they may fight you out of self defense. But if you clearly state that you wish them no ill, and if they respond, you kind of know that you two are alright. You can also use chat to alert other players of one player who is closer to victory than you are, so if they are unaware of how close that player is to victory, now they are more likely to focus on that player. Always try to befriend the player with the least threat to you, always focus on the player who seems to be the smartest. Sometimes you don't want to kill a player even if you can. Say for example they could be on very low health and just finished their mission on hand. Now they need to go on their next mission. You can delay killing them to after they have already gone on one turn to reach their next mission (generally remember it roughly takes 2-3 turns for a player to reach their new objective from their last objective). By killing them after a turn, you essentially wasted one or multiple of their turns and delayed their progress. Sometimes you also want to help the weaker players become stronger so they may work in your favor to curb the player with the most threat to you. Generally you should try to maintain two powerful players who go against each other most of the time. Remember, your role is to slow everyone else down and weaken them, either through your hand, NPC's hand (yes, you can play buff magic to king's guard and banes even, to slow other players down or downright kill them) or their own hand. (by luring them to a village where you have peril and a shop)
8: There are many more things you can learn, (e.g. damage spike, being observant of other player's movement, remember other player's hand...) but keep playing! You will figure them out through playing. I assume you don't have any DLC. Then Zosha, Sana, River, Barnaby (For Barnaby you really need to understand point 2 or you will have dead hand) are all good characters. The other characters in vanilla can also be pretty good (such as Thane, who can often force kill the king in very early game), but they either have slightly underwhelming ability compare to the others, or they require more player mastery. Zosha, River and Barnaby are all good kingslayer, especially Zosha and River. Sana is a good candidate for prestige victory and she can also kill the king at night with high spirit. (At day you would be attacked by king's guard) Zosha was my personal favorite when I was just learning the game. She is a neat fight based beginner character.
Prestige is a backup win condition at best, Prestige victories only occur when your opponents are playing sub-optimally without a clear win condition. At higher levels, it is extremely rare for a player to die to the King because all it takes is one pierce card and some shields and he's toast.
Kingslayer should always be your primary win condition, because statistically it's the most reliable and the reality is that Armello is just an exercise in minimizing RNG. Having the Prestige lead is meaningless when a 4 quest fighter walks into the palace, HRW's and kills a 3 health King. No amount of Prestige can counter a play like that.
The rest of your post is really accurate and informative, so credit where it's due there.
RNG is the reason why Prestige is important. You win if the dice turn. Also, people who are desperate because they are in a bad spot will also try and kill the king with low chances of victory.
Also picking edicts is nice.
That's pretty much leaving your win up to another player playing sub-optimally. A poor strategy, a backup win condition at best.
Players who are in a bad spot don't have the luxury of attacking the King, if they can attack him, they aren't in a bad spot at all.
I do like picking edicts though, a first edict Royal Challenge as Sylas is flat out incredible.