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For example, once I had a weapon with 3 really good upgrades (it was a nice drop) I hammered it once and it worked, I did it a second time and it blew up. I closed the game and reloaded and the first time I tried to hammer it it blew right out of the bat.
Similarly, I've hammered some items multiple times without them blowing up. So the higher the power of the weapon the more likelly it will blow when you upgrade it. After you think a weapon is already powerful, don't hammer it anymore, use scrolls. They might not give you what you want, they might fail to increase the weapon power, but they will never make it blow... That said I think scrolls will auto fail past a certain amount of power but I can be wrong here.
I tried to do some testing on getting a second hammer to work on an item, after about 50 tries i couldnt get a second hammer to work so I gave up... However I had always used scrolls first...
Does anyone know the math behind the upgrade system? Ive always gotten the first blacksmith upgrade to work, even when scrolls refuse the item and it has a starforge upgrade. Would the best way to go put 2-3 hammer upgrades on, then use 4 scrolls, and then use the starforge?
I don't think anyone publicly (except the dev) knows the failure rates. All I know is the first hammer always seems to work 100%.
My theory is that hammer success rates are based on how many times it's been hammered already because you can have an item that came with affixes and been scrolled and always use the hammer successfully on it the first time.
I've gotten up to "Incomprehensibly" (5 stacks of the same stat) once. The success rates diminish quite rapidly after each successful hammer.
Regular > Super > Ultra > Hyper > Incomprehensibly
Scrolls, however, are a bit odd. Scrolls seem to have a success rate (at least to me anyway) based on how many affixes the item has in total already.
I hammered a plain item once and then failed to apply a scroll affix to the item.
It's not a 100% fail rate though. I tried scrolling two more items that were hammered first and both scrolls worked on both items.
I also scrolled an item twice successfully (failed 2 times though, used 4 total).
Without knowing the exact rates, no one can give you a mathematically sound answer.
The downside of hammering multiple times last is you can lose all the scrolls you used and the item poofs if you fail the hammering, but it's easier to get the scrolls to successfully work.
The downside of scrolling last is you will use a ton of scrolls and it probably won't work but at least your item won't break once you get past the hammering.
I would scroll once first if the item has no affixes for 100% chance, then hammer x times hoping it doesn't break, then scroll x times.
Or I could possibly even scroll for at least two affixes before hammering, but remember, 2 successful hammers has a low chance of succeeding and 3 hammers even lower.
@OP, yeah those suggestions are pretty good ones
It shouldn't be 100% failure rate for adding two different affixes via hammer. I just tested about a minute ago and successfully added 'immunized' and 'radiant' hammers to a piece of armor. The success rate just seems low but it's definitely not 100% failure.