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The "when" part does not really seem to be influenced much by how you act. But there's modifieres like the Advancement that delays it and one of the Terra-Salvum specific specialty. And of course the agression-setting has a tremendous impact on that. On the lowest setting they will only attack extremely late at a point where they usually aren't a threat anymore. On the highest setting the alien-agression is a huge factor in your entire strategy.
The "how likely part" uses an internal scoring that is used in the randomized behaviour of the aliens. The worse you treated the aliens and the higher their agression setting, the more likely it is they actually attack your units and cities instead of randomly wandering back and forth.
The messari work differently. Their aggression depends on the score of the factions. The higher your overall score compared to others the more likely they are to attack you.