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One small mistake I made is, that you cant avoid to gain favor for either Instrument or eater, because you either are at war or not (tertium non datur). I chose war, since eater has lower chance with my built anyway.
I saved 1 month before the "commune with the ineffable" concluded and we get our first offering of a covenant.
I tested only 16 times because of constant game-crashes (srsly, fix this).
Expectation
Eater: 25 *0,3(pacifist) *0,7(inward perfection) *1,6(at war) = 9 (8,4)
Composer: 25 *0,3(xenophob) = 8 (7,5)
Instrument: 25 *0,3(egalitarian) = 8 (7,5)
Whisperers: 25 *0,7(inward perfection) = 18 (17,5)
End of the Cycle: 2 *5(Knights of the Toxic god) = 10
9+8+8+18+10= 53
->
Eater: 17%, Composer: 15%, Instrument: 15%, Whisperers: 34%, END: 19%
Observation
Eater: 3 -> 19%
Composer: 1 -> 6%
Instrument: 2 -> 13%
Whisperers: 6 -> 38%
End of the Cycle: 4 -> 25%
Considering the small sample-size this kinda speaks for my calculation.
If you have doubts about the exact workings of game mechanics, you should search the gamefiles with a tool like Notepad++.
Start by looking into files with conspicious names, if that doesn't give results then use the "Find in Files" function. This has helped me a lot to figure out large parts of Crusader Kings 3's very obscure and undocumented mechanics, for example.
One problem is that the scripts often use different words for things than they have in the game; example the "Intuition" leader trait is internally referred to as "Carefree".
So your search may not find any results at all, then it takes some manual detective work.